Transcript Prospects for Regional Development: Infrastructure, Human Capital

Dr. Edgar Morgenroth
Infrastructure for Growth
and BREXIT
OUR REGION
Prospects for Regional
Development: Infrastructure,
Human Capital and Brexit
Edgar Morgenroth
Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI)
Adjunct Professor, Trinity College Dublin
[email protected]
Introduction
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Infrastructure is often seen as an important policy tool for
regional development.
Policy makers and residents of more peripheral regions tend
to lobby strongly for more centrally financed investment in
infrastructure to overcome the perceived disadvantage due
to peripherality.
What factors are important??
Brexit poses an additional challenge for development
particularly for the Border region.
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Motorways and By-passes by Period of
Completion (1983 to 2010)
Completion
1983 - 1990
2002 - 2005
2006 - 2010
1991 - 2001
4
Motorway Length by Region
250
200
Border
Kilometers
Midlands
150
West
Dublin
100
Mid-East
Mid-West
50
South-East
South-West
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
0
Source: National Roads Authority/ Transport Infrastructure Ireland Route
Lengths, CSO Annual Abstract of Statistics.
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Drive Time to the Nearest Motorway
Junction
Motorways
Drive Time (Minutes)
1 - 15
16 - 30
31 - 60
61 - 120
121 and more
Source: Own calculations using Microsoft MapPoint
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Drive Time to Nearest Railway Station
Railway Stations
Drive Time (Minutes)
1 - 15
16 - 30
31 - 60
61 - 120
121 and more
Source: Own calculations using Microsoft MapPoint
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Drive Time to the Nearest Commercial Port
(1,000,000 tonnes in 2011)
Derry
!
Larne
!
Belfast
!
Warrenpoint
!
!
Dublin
Dun Laoghaire
!
Foynes
!
Waterford
!
Rosslare
!
Ports
Drive Time (Minutes)
Cork
!
Bantry
!
2 - 15
16 - 30
31 - 60
61 - 120
121 and more
Source: Own calculations using Microsoft MapPoint
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Drive Time to the Nearest Airport
!
Donegal
!
Derry
Belfast Intl.
Belfast G. B.
!
!
!
Knock
!
!
!
Dubblin
Shannon
Faranfore
!
Waterford
Airports
!
Cork
Drive Time (Minutes)
3 - 15
16 - 30
31 - 60
61 - 120
121 and more
Source: Own calculations using Microsoft MapPoint
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Percentage of the Population with a
Third Level Qualifications
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Drivers of New Firm Formation
Rank
Foreign High-Tech
Indigenous High-Tech
1
3rd level Qual. (+)
3rd level Qual. (+)
2
Relative Wages (+)
Total Employment (scale) (+)
3
Metropolitan Area Network (+)
Eircom DSL (+)
4
MAN backhaul (+)
MAN increased backhaul (+)
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Unemployment (+)
Specialisation (-)
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Total Employment (scale) (+)
Relative Wages (+)
7
Airport (DT) (+)
Unemployment (+)
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DSL (+)
Specialisation (-)
Metropolitan Area Network (+)
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3rd Level Institute (DT) (+)
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Motorway Junction (DT) (+)
3rd Level Institute (DT) (+)
Source: McCoy, Lyons, Morgenroth, Palcic and Allen (2016) “The impact of broadband and
other infrastructure on the location of new business establishments”, MPRA Paper No. 69074
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Broadband and Human Capital
Interaction
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Regional Implications of Brexit
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The impact of Brexit depends on the final agreement – this is
difficult to anticipate, but it is very unlikely to be the EEA
(Norway) solution.
At this point it seems more likely that the UK will leave the
Customs Union than reach an EEA style agreement => that
would make a hard border certain!
The introduction of tariffs would hit agri-food worst. But it
would also hit other traditional manufacturing and services.
It is important to remember that the EU excluding the UK is a
more important trade partner than the UK – leaving the EU
would be worse than Brexit!!!
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Industrial Exports from the BMW
Region (% of total output, 2012)
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WTO Tariffs by Product Group
Source: Lawless and Morgenroth (2016)
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Importance of the Agri-Food Sector
Share of Jobs (2011)
Agri-Food Share
0.8% - 5%
5.1% - 9.2%
9.3% - 13.4%
13.5% - 17.6%
17.7% - 21.8%
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Importance of the Non-metallic
Minerals, Basic and Fabricated Metals
Sectors.
Share of Jobs (2011)
Non.MetMin, Bas. & Fab. Met Share
0.3% - 0.9%
1% - 1.4%
1.5% - 2%
2.1% - 2.5%
2.6% - 3.1%
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Discussion
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Infrastructure is not the most important factor!!
There is an important interaction between human capital and
the impact of broadband (and probably other infrastructure).
A hard border would change the infrastructure accessibility
maps for both the North and the South at least in terms of
economic activity (trade, commuting)!
What can the regions do to utilise all of their potential?
What can the regions to maximise their potential?
What can the regions do to minimise the impact of Brexit?
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