Transcript Metro Atlanta Quality Growth Task Force - Pockets

Metro Atlanta
Quality Growth Task Force
Summary Presentation
®
Metro Atlanta Growth is Inevitable
Atlanta
population/employment
6M
4
Population
Employment
2
2.3M new people
and 1.7M new jobs
by 2030
Almost half of
Atlanta’s population
increase will be from
within the region
(births exceeding
deaths)
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; ARC projections for the core 13-county region
2
Key Growth Challenges…
Congestion Analysis
Transportation system:
• Even spending $50B over the next 25 years, traffic
congestion is projected to worsen.
Top 73 Priority Facilities from the CMS
All CMS Corridors
• We must develop new funding sources for needed
transportation infrastructure to assure increased
mobility and reduced congestion
Land use:
• Satisfy future market demand while consuming less land
• Ensure housing that offers a full-range of types, lifestyles
and price-points, with more housing closer to jobs
• Leverage existing and planned transportation
investments with supporting land development
Water Resources:
• Limited water supplies, but as growth continues,
competition for water increases
• Ensure sustainable use of region’s water resources
3
What kind of place will Metro Atlanta
be in 2030?
4
Quality Growth Task Force - Objectives
Public-Private Task Force convened to:
 Identify a set of key growth strategies to successfully
accommodate the next 2.3M people
 Market based; satisfy full range of consumer choices
 Recommend the policies and actions necessary to
achieve these key strategies
 Recognize the strategic linkage between land use,
transportation, sewers and other infrastructure
 Marshal business, public and political support for
implementation
 Consensus on a set of recommendations and practical action
steps to advance implementation
5
The footprint of Metro Atlanta is growing
substantially
Tennessee
Pickens
Dawson
Alabama
Bartow
Forsyth
Cherokee
Barrow
Gwinnett
Cobb
Paulding
Haralson
Douglas
Walton
DeKalb
Fulton
Current MSA has 165
separate local gov’ts
(137 cities and 28
counties)
Rockdale
Clayton
Carroll
Newton
Henry
Fayette
Coweta
Heard
Jasper
Butts
Spalding
Pike
Up from 7 counties in
1980
Lamar
Meriwether
6
Atlanta is the least dense of the top 15
regions
Population density of
urbanized area* (people/acre)
13
11.0
10
9.6
8.3
8
6.9
6.1
5.7
5
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.4
3.6
3.1
2.8
as
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3
Top 15 Metropolitan Area
*All areas with population density of >1,000 people per square mile
Source: US Census Bureau
7
Atlanta has the largest residential lot sizes of
the top 21 regions
Median single-family lot size (acres) within MSA
1.0
¾ acre median lot size
0.8
0.6
0.4
Average:
0.3 acres
Source: American Housing Survey; U.S. Census
San
Francisco
Los Angeles
Miami
Phoenix
Portland
Denver
Detroit
Philadelphia
Chicago
Dallas
New
York
Houston
Baltimore
Seattle
Minneapolis
Boston
St. Louis
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
0.0
Atlanta
0.2
8
Zoning in many jurisdictions restricts
housing choice
Maximum Density
4-14 units/acre
7 of 13 counties surveyed
5 of 13 cities surveyed
This low density zoning
makes it impractical to
build condominiums or
apartments
Source: 2003 RBC Quality Growth Audit
9
One-third of Metro Atlanta's households earn
less than $40,000 annually
Percent of total
households
100%
80
1.5M
Annual Income
<$40,000
60
40
Annual Income
>$40,000
20
0
Source: US Census 2000; Atlanta MSA
No. of Households
in Metro Atlanta
10
Many working families can not afford to buy
a house in Metro Atlanta
Monthly housing spend
$2,500
2,000
Equivalent house price
City of Atlanta 2002 average home price: $243,000
$250K
Metro Atlanta 2002 average home price: $180,000
200
1,500
1,000
$890
$770
$760
$680
500
0
150
Affordability
gap
Admin
Asst
Teacher
Fire
Fighter
Police
Officer
100
$540
Retail
Sales
50
0
Assumptions: average annual salaries (not starting salary); 30-yr mortgage; 3% down; 7.5% interest
Source: Mayor Shirley Franklin’s Housing Task Force (methodology); Bain analysis
11
Air quality is improving!
– Helped by favorable weather conditions
2004: Atlanta
– Cleaner cars and trucks
achieves the onehour ozone standard! – Low sulfur gasoline in 45 counties
• Georgia’s Air Quality
Plans are working
– Enhanced vehicle Inspection
– Additional power plant controls in GA
Days in Violation
– 8-Hr Ozone Standard
But new Federal
standards are tougher – Fine Particulates (PM2.5)
80
1 hr
Ozone std.
69
60
60
46
44
40
20
14
7
38
36
30
22
21
11
20
11
3
7
13
1
11
8 hr
Ozone std.
1
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
12
Since 1982, The Atlanta Region Has moved from
16TH to 5TH Worst Traffic Congestion in the Country
Annual delay hours per traveler during peak times*
80
Atlanta
Atlanta
Los Angeles*
Boston
Dallas
San Francisco
60
Houston
Washington D.C.
Los Angeles**
Dallas
San Francisco
Houston
San Jose
40
Boston
Washington
D.C.
San Jose
Nashville
20
0
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
* Persons who travel during the peak commuting times, 6-10 a.m. and 4-8 p.m.
** Los Angeles’ delay was 114 hours per traveler in 1992 and 93 hours per traveler in 2002
Source: Texas Transportation Institute, “2004 Urban Mobility Report “
13
Atlanta has the highest percentage of residents on
septic systems compared to peer regions
Percent of households on septic systems
30%
26.1%
20
26% = 1 Million people
17.8% 17.4%
10
11.1% 10.8% 10.7%
10.2%
9.5%
8.9%
6.4% 6.3% 6.1%
3.8%
1.7% 1.6%
At
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0
Source: American Housing Survey
14
There are 1.2M acres of developable, vacant land in
Metro Atlanta with no sewer
Sewered areas
Developed, unsewered
Undeveloped, unsewered
15
The Atlanta region cannot continue to rely heavily
on septic systems to accommodate growth
•
1,100,000 acres of the region’s greenfield sites are
unsewered and future sewer expansions will be
limited
•
One house on septic “consumes” as much water as
6.6 homes on sewer*
=
Septic
Sewer
*Under draft Tri-State compact (AL, FL, GA) septic systems, land application and outdoor irrigation were considered
“100% consumptive” of water, as they do not return measurable amounts of water back to the rivers.
Metro Atlanta Chamber analysis
16
The region’s demographics are changing
Atlanta MSA Population
6.0M
6M
4
% Change
192%
59%
4.1M
>65
45-64
22%
2
25-44
32%
18-24
29%
Below 17
0
2000
Source: US Census Estimates and Projections; based on 28 county Atlanta MSA
2030
17
People over 45 are the fastest growing
demographic group in the Atlanta region
192%
% Change (2000 - 2030)
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
59%
29%
32%
25
0
Age: Below 17
18-24
22%
25-44
45-64
>65
In addition, share of families with school age
children will decrease by 1/3 by 2030
Source: US Census Estimates and Projections; based on 28 county Atlanta MSA; (This is generally consistent with national trends)
18
Changing demographics may cause demand for
higher density housing to double
Number
of people
preferring
higher density, mixed use
No.
of people
preferring
higher density
housing,
some ofand
which
could be in centers/corridors
housing
in centers
corridors
2.0M
0.3M
1.9M
Smaller
households
2030
0.8M
1.5
1.0
0.8M
0.5
0.0
2000
Aging
population
Source: Bain Estimates based on housing type preferences by age and household size.
19
Key Points
2.3M new
Atlanta
residents
by 2030
Market Demand
is changing
•
The equivalent of greater Denver’s
population is coming to Atlanta by 2030
- The region is not positioned to successfully
accommodate this growth
•
Aging boomers, fewer families with
school age children, evolving lifestyles
- More demand for convenient, high-amenity,
walkable communities
•
10%
The Region’s centers and corridors
= only 10% of the region’s land
area
- We don’t have to change everything. Parts
of these areas can accommodate a large
portion of future growth
- More Housing, closer to jobs = less traffic20
Key strategies
Enabling more
growth in centers
and corridors
• leverage
existing and
future
infrastructure
• address
jobs/housing
imbalances
Increasing
housing choice
More sustainable
greenfield
development
• Increase variety
of housing choices
(location, type,
price-point)
• Promote greenfield
development that
leverages
infrastructure,
provides more
market choices and
is more land
efficient
21
Smarter development in less than 10% of our
region can cut traffic and save greenspace
Examples of Centers and Corridors
• The region’s
centers and
corridors make up
less than 10% of
the region’s land
area
• Portions are ripe
for higher density,
mixed-use
development and
redevelopment
22
What difference could just land use make in
improving transportation performance?
What we modeled:
Two different 2030 household and employment
distributions (ie, “land uses”)
- Status Quo (more decentralized)
- Alternative (more housing near jobs)
With the same transportation network
- 2025 Regional Transportation Plan (Ltd update)
23
Modeling: Atlanta can add 2.3M people to the
region and reduce time spent in traffic delay
Duration of Delay – major facilities (Minutes/Household)
Different Land Use, Same
Transportation Network
50
40
44
36
33
30
20
10
0
Today
Status Quo
Alternative
24
And this approach can save 107,000 acres
of land
Acres of
Land Consumed
500K
439
Benefits
• Preservation of land
400
332
-107
300
-Water/Sewers
-Roads
200
100
0
• More efficient use of
infrastructure
investments
Status
Quo
Acres
Saved
Alternative
• Preserves more
options for both
growth and
greenspace beyond
2030
25
www.UrbanAdvantage.com and Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network
26
www.UrbanAdvantage.com and Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network
27
www.UrbanAdvantage.com and Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network
28
www.UrbanAdvantage.com and Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network
29
www.UrbanAdvantage.com and Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network
30
www.UrbanAdvantage.com and Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network
31
Densities can make or break a greyfield
redevelopment project (example 10 acre greyfield)
Price per unit (residential) required to make
the project economically viable
$400K
$365K
300
$208K
200
$146K
100
0
8
14
Dwelling units/Acre
Purchase
price
affordable
to average
income
20
Note: Based on 9.5 acre strip center in Gwinnett County, $5M prop acquisition and demo; Affordability of
home price based on 3X of Atlanta average household income of $41,500
Source: Robert Charles Lesser
32
Allowing a mix of uses can greatly improve the
economics of redeveloping this site
Price per unit (for-sale condo) with mixed-use
$400K
$365K
300
$223K
$223K
200
$208K
$128K
$127K
$89K
$89K
100
0
$146K
8
Purchase
price
affordable
to average
income
14
20
Dwelling Units/ Acre
Note: Affordability of home price based on 3X of Atlanta average household income of $41,500
Source: Robert Charles Lesser
33
The Atlanta Region Needs a Development Strategy
for Greenfields
Type I
Description
• In or adjacent to
existing centers/
corridors and with
existing
infrastructure
Metro Atlanta • 258,679 acres
Inventory
(16 counties)
Type II
Type III
• In or near areas
with adequate
existing or
programmed
transportation and
sewer infrastructure
• All other areas, and
generally on septics
or package
wastewater
treatment plants
• 500,794 acres
• 1,137,846 acres
Permanently protected greenspace c. 2000 (includes some parks in developed areas) = 89,276.89 acres
34
Task Force Recommendations (summary)
Remove
barriers
Provide some
motivation
Leverage
infrastructure
• Remove the regulatory barriers that prevent
the market from satisfying consumer demand
- Primarily zoning and development regulations
• Link land use with supporting transportation
and other infrastructure in targeted areas
- Esp. centers and corridors where jurisdictions agree
to accommodate more growth (higher density,
mixed use, mixed income)
• Land development policies should make
efficient use of existing and programmed
public infrastructure investments.
- And develop a strategy for managing growth on
septic systems
35
An active Coalition is critical to making necessary
changes happen
Coalition of diverse
organizations and interests
(business, development,
civic, environmental) will
work to advance issues
where there is consensus.
This would include:
• Publicly articulating areas of agreement and policy positions
where appropriate; and
• Developing an action plan for the Coalition for achieving
change that will support and add value to existing efforts.
36