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AP Human Geography Review Theories and Models The Demographic Transition Model Stage One High birth rates High death rates Slow population growth Stage Two Falling death rates Continuing high birth rates Population increases rapidly Stage Three Birth rates slow Population growth rate slows down Stage Four Low birth rates Low death rates Low rate of natural increase. Stage Five? Population decrease? Such low birth rates that there are actually negative population growth rates in countries that have fallen below replacement TFR. World Population Growth Through History Billions 12 11 2100 10 9 Old Stone 7 Age 8 New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age 6 Modern Age Middle Ages 2000 Future 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1 Black Death —The Plague 1900 1800 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Ravenstein's Laws of Migration Ravenstein came up with his "laws" of migration in the 1880s based on studies carried out in the UK. The laws are as follows • • • • • • • The greatest body of migrants travel short distances. This produces currents directed towards large commercial centres. Each current has an off-setting counter-current in the opposite direction. Both currents display similar characteristics Long distance movements are directed towards large commercial centres. People in urban areas migrate less than people in rural areas. Males migrate more over long distances and females migrate more over short distances. Additions to These Laws • Most migrants are between 20-34 years of age. • People mainly move for economic reasons. • Urban housing development is inadequate for the influx of migrants so ghettoes/shanties are formed. Agriculture Theory • With increased food supply and increased population, speakers from the hearth of Indo-European languages migrated into Europe. Gravity Model This theory states that larger towns are more attractive to immigrants than smaller towns. Push-Pull Theory Any migration is as a result of push forces at the origin and pull forces at the destination. • Examples of push forces are famine, war and poverty. • Examples of pull forces are availability of food, peace and wealth. Consequences of Migration Demographic Consequences: • Changes in the numbers and distribution of people within a region are changed. • Intermarriages are created, leading to a new group of people. Social Consequences: • Migration brings different people together leading to conflicts. • Migration however also creates understanding between different groups of people. • Rural-Urban migration creates ghettoes in cities. Economic Consequences: • This depends on the "quality" of the migrants and the economic needs of the origin and destination. Quality refers to skills, age, educational attainment, health etc. • In overpopulated areas, emigration is beneficial because it reduces the pressure on the land. • In under-populated areas, emigration may slow down development. Dispersal Hypothesis Indo-European languages first moved from the hearth eastward into present-day Iran and then around the Caspian and into Europe. Renfrew Hypothesis: Proto-Indo-European began in the Fertile Crescent, and then: From Anatolia diffused Europe’s languages From the Western Arc of Fertile Crescent diffused North Africa and Arabia’s languages From the Eastern Arc of Fertile Crescent diffused Southwest Asia and South Asia’s languages. Development Models Modernization Model Walt Rostow’s model assumes all countries follow a similar path to development or modernization, advancing through five stages of development, climbing a ladder of development. - traditional - preconditions of takeoff - takeoff - drive to maturity - high mass consumption Rostow’s Ladder of Development Dependency Theory The political and economic relationships between countries and regions of the world control and limit the economic development possibilities of poorer areas. -Economic structures make poorer countries dependent on wealthier countries. -Little hope for economic prosperity in poorer countries. -Relates to neocolonialism Von Thünen Model Von Thűnen Model Von Thunen’s model is the beginning of location economics and analysis (1826) World-Systems Theory Immanuel Wallerstein’s World-Systems Theory states: 1. The world economy has one market and a global division of labour. 2. Although the world has multiple states, almost everything takes place within the context of the world economy. 3. The world economy has a three-tier structure. Construction of the World Economy Capitalism – people, corporations, and states produce goods and services and exchange them in the world market, with the goal of achieving profit. Commodification – the process of placing a price on a good and then buying, selling, and trading the good. Colonialism – brought the world into the world economy, setting up an interdependent global economy. The Three Tier Structure Core Periphery Processes that incorporate higher levels of education, higher salaries, and more technology. Generate more wealth in the world economy Processes that incorporate lower levels of education, lower salaries, and less technology Generate less wealth in the world economy Semi-periphery Places where core and periphery processes are both occurring. Places that are exploited by the core but then exploit the periphery. Serves as a buffer between core and periphery World Systems Theory Ratzel’s organic theory of the state The Germans were instrumental in developing the field of Geopolitics (Geopolitk). In 1897, the German geographer Friedrich Ratzel developed his "organic theory". This theory contend that the state is like an organism attached to the earth that competes with other states to thrive. Like all living organisms, the state needs lebensraum - living space. Mackinder’s Heartland Theory Sir Halford John Mackinder was a British geographer who wrote a paper in 1904 called "The Geographical Pivot of History." He suggested that control of Eastern Europe was vital to control of the world. He formulated his hypothesis as: • Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland • Who rules the Heartland commands the WorldIsland • Who rules the World-Island commands the world Mackinder's Heartland the Pivot Area) is the core area of Eurasia, and the World-Island is all of Eurasia (both Europe and Asia). Mackinder’s Heartland Theory Location Theory Location Theory – seeks to predict where businesses or industries will or should be located. Considers: - Variable costs - Friction of distance Location Models Weber’s Model Manufacturing plants will locate where costs are the least (least cost theory) Theory: Least Cost Theory Costs: Transportation, Labour, Agglomeration Hotelling’s Model Location of an industry cannot be understood without reference to other industries of the same kind. Theory: Locational interdependence Losch’s Model Manufacturing plants choose locations where they can maximize profit. Theory: Zone of Profitability Losch’s Model Central Place Theory Walter Christaller developed a model to predict how and where central places in the urban hierarchy (hamlets, villages, towns, and cities) would be functionally and spatially distributed. Christaller assumed that: • surface is flat with no physical barriers • soil fertility is the same everywhere • population and purchasing power are evenly distributed • region has uniform transportation network • from any given place, a good or service could be sold in all directions out to a certain distance Hexagonal Hinterlands C = city T = town V = village H = hamlet Modelling the North American City Concentric zone model (Ernest Burgess) Sector model (Homer Hoyt) Multiple Nuclei Model (Chauncy Harris and Edward Ullman) Three Classical Models of Urban Structure Urban Realms Model Each realm is a separate economic, social and political entity that is linked together to form a larger metro framework. Latin American City (GriffinFord model) The African City (de Blij model) Southeast Asian City (McGee model)