Transcript TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005 Long Range

Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
Integrated Assessment Modelling project in Italy.
Case study on the effects of the National Sea Traffic
emissions on air pollutant concentrations over the land.
G. Zanini, G. Vialetto, L. Vitali, T. Pignatelli, F. Monforti, C. Salgò, I. D’Elia
ENEA, Bologna and Casaccia Research Centres
G. Brusasca, G. Calori, S. Finardi, P. Radice, C. Silibello
ARIANET, Milano
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
The MINNI Project
 MINNI is the Italian acronym for Integrated National Model as
supporting tool for the International Negotiation on
atmospheric pollution
 Started in 2002 in the framework of an agreement with the Italian
Ministry for the Environment and the Territory
 Tool under development jointly by ENEA, IIASA and
ARIANET
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
The MINNI project
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
Scenario
AMS-Italy
Atmospheric Transfer
matrices
AMS = Atmospheric
Modelling System
RAINS-Italy
RAINS = Regional Air Pollution
INformation and Simulation
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
MINNI:
Atmospheric Modelling System
Meteo
sub-system
ECMWF fields
Ref. inventory
Local data
RAMS
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
Space, time,
species info
Emission
sub-system
Emission
Manager
Reference
meteo year
Emission
scenario
EMEP B.C.
FARM
Transfer
matrices
Conc & dep.
fields
Chemical-transport
sub-system
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
RAINS
Italy
MINNI:
RAINS-Italy
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
RAINS-Italy characteristics:
- Area Sources: 20 administrative regions, 4
metropolitan areas (Milan, Turin, Rome and Naples),
1 National Sea Traffic
- Point sources: 14 Large Combustion Plants (refineries
and power plants)
- ATM from AMS with 20x20 km2 spatial resolution
RAINS-Italy output (for each area and point sources):
-Emission scenarios: SO2, NOx, VOCs, NH3, PM and O3
- Deposition/concentration maps for acidification, eutrophication, PM and O3
- National and regional abatement cost curves
- PM and O3 health impacts
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
Case study: National Sea Traffic Region
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
Emission scenarios and marine fuel consumption
140
SOx (kt)
NOx (kt)
PM10 (kt)
Fuel consumption (PJ)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
EMISSION SCENARIOS:
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
Medium & Large vessels
120
TRA_OTS_M
TRA_OTS_L
80
NOx emissions (kt/y)
Emissions SOx (kt/y)
100
90
80
60
40
TRA_OTS_M
TRA_OTS_L
70
60
50
40
30
20
20
10
0
0
2000
2005
2010
SOx
2015
2020
2025
2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
NOx
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
2020
2025
2030
AMS Simulation:
Zero shipping emissions
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
Percentage of
reduction of SO4
in PM
concentrations
(reference year 1999)
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
AMS Simulation:
Zero shipping emissions
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
Percentage of
reduction of PM2.5
concentrations
(reference year 1999)
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
RAINS-Italy scenario
2000
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
2020
Sulphur deposition from National Sea Traffic
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
RAINS-Italy scenario
2000
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
2020
Nitrogen deposition from National Sea Traffic
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005
Conclusions
Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution Convention
 Sulphur deposition is worsening in the next 15 years (with the
peak values in the area around Naples)
 AMS simulations show an influence of the emissions over the sea
region surrounding Italy on the PM2.5 and Sulphate concentrations
which is not restricted to the coast line
 With respect to the Po Valley, the sea traffic region seems to
contribute to PM2.5 and Sulphate concentrations close to 15%
TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005