Transcript presentation

Transitions in SE Europe and the
post-Soviet space; a crossregional comparison
Othon Anastasakis
South East European
Studies at Oxford
(SEESOX)
University of Oxford
Regional Transition Trajectories
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Fast-track transition: Central and East
European countries; EU member-states
Slow-track transition: South East Europe,
especially Western Balkan states; EU
candidate and potential candidate states
Unfinished transition: post-Soviet states;
European neighbourhood
Delayed transition: SE Europe
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Past the reconstruction phase towards
normalisation
Party politics and democratically elected
governments
Some political and economic achievements
Developing civil societies
On the road to EU integration through
stabilisation and association process
South East Europe/Western Balkans:
Political vulnerabilities
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Weak states and state-building issues
Electoral politics often divisive and polarised
Mixed party constellations composed by liberal and
illiberal forces; nationalists and Europeanists
Weak rule of law; issues of corruption and organised
crime at regional and national levels
Ethnic issues (Serbian nationalism, Albanian
nationalism, ethnic polarisation in Bosnia)
External dependency and foreign interferences
South East Europe; economic gains
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Sustained growth during last years
Increasing wages and inflation under control
Some regional interaction and cooperation
Foreign direct investment (especially Serbia
and Croatia) & flows into real estate
Regional energy routes
Increasing economic interaction with the EU
Economic vulnerabilities
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Institutional limitations
Problems with the rule of law
Infrastructure difficulties
Unemployment
Limited competitiveness
Political obstacles
Small markets
Limited regional cooperation
Euro-atlantic integration
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Common EU and NATO orientation
Different speeds in the association and
stabilisation process
No firm commitment towards EU
membership; EU enlargement fatigue; limited
economic interest in the region
Intermediate EU carrots (visa, trade, financial
assistance)
Recent EU progress with W. Balkan states
Country challenges
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EU Accession of Croatia
Sustainability of the state of Kosovo
Keeping Serbia on the EU track
Addressing the central state in Bosnia-Herzegovina
Strengthening constitutional framework in FYR
Macedonia
Political backwardness of Albania
Capacity building in Montenegro
Unfinished, hybrid transition; East
European neighbourhood
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Fragmentation of the post-Soviet space
Diversity of political trajectories
Economic drawbacks
Diversity of relations with Europe
Strong influence of Russia
Other extra-regional actors (Turkey, China, Iran,
USA)
Crucial geo-strategic status
Increasing attention turning to this area
At the rim of Euro-atlantic integration
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Unpredictable euro-atlantic prospects
European Neighbourhood policy as a privileged
relationship
Increasing interest from some EU member-states for
the East (Poland & Sweden’s eastern partnership
initiative)
Competition with the Middle East and the
Mediterranean side of the European neighbourhood
(French interest)
Increasing role of the Black Sea as an area of
cooperation among heterogeneous states
Political challenges
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Drawbacks with coloured revolutions
Electoral-party politics
Diversity of regimes ranging from semi-democracies
to authoritarianism
Frozen conflicts and breakaway regions (Abkhazia,
Nagorno-Karabakh,South Ossetia, Trans-Dniester)
Redirecting their focus away from Russia and closer
to the West
Economic challenges
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Macro-economic instability
Double digit inflations
Political impediments to investment
Cheaper labour
Competing economic interests among states
and groups of states
National trajectories
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Ukraine, advancing democracy, full fledged member
of ENP and closer links with the West, yet divided
with strong Russian eastern influence
Moldova and Armenia are introducing democratic
reforms with a look to the West
Georgia on the road to democratic reform yet with
electoral drawbacks and a very antagonistic
relationship with Russia
Belarus authoritarianism and energy blackmail to the
West; idea of a union with Russia
Concerns from Europe’s eastern
neighbourhood
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Border issues and migration
Environmental degradation
Energy supply
Political instability
Security concerns
Competition with Russia
Europe’s borders
The two regions compared
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Similar communist legacies but with some differences
Both regions have pockets of instability
Ethnic conflicts addressed in the Balkans, less addressed in the
former Soviet space
Democratisation is more advanced in the W. Balkans
The post-Soviet space is economically and strategically more
important, bigger and vital in resources
EU influence vs Russian influence
More advanced regionalism in South East Europe
Bigger western linkage and leverage for W. Balkans