Transcript AM04FREGONESE (AM04 - Fregonese)

Healthy Places: The Community of
Tomorrow
USA Population
2000
– 275 million people
– Median age: 35.8 yrs
2030
– 351 million people
– Median age: 39 yrs
Source: US Census Bureau
USA Population
(in millions)
400,000,000
351,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000
275,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
2000
Source: US Census Bureau
2030
USA Population
Median Age
45
40
36
39
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
Source: US Census Bureau
2030
USA Population 2000 by Age Groups
13%
28%
39%
20%
19 and under
Source: US Census Bureau
20 to 34
35 to 54
65+
USA Population 2030 by Age Groups
20%
26%
19%
35%
19 and under
Source: US Census Bureau
20 to 34
35 to 54
65+
USA Population 2000-2030
by Age Groups
19%
47%
12%
22%
19 and under
Source: US Census Bureau
20 to 34
35 to 54
65+
Changes with age
Housing
– Housing choices change as people age
– “Empty Nester” housing
– Assisted Living
Transportation
– Mobility is decreased
– Driving a car eventually is not an option
– Decrease of activity can lead to health decline
Changing Housing Choices
Senior Housing Choices
National
Percent
Percent Preferring a
Townhouse
in the City
Preferring
a Townhouse
in the City
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
25-34
35-44
45-54
Age Group
Dowell Myers
USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development
55+
NAHB, 1999
Percent Calling Factor Very Important if
Percent Calling
Factor
Very
Important
Buying
a Home
Today
if Buying a Home Today
Crime Rate
90
80
School District
Percent Calling Factor Very Important if
Buying a Home Today
70
60
Crime Rate
90
50
Highway
School District
Access
80
40
70
60
30
50
Highway
Access
20
Location to
Shopping
Location to
10
Shopping
40
20
30
10
0
0
25-34
35-44
25-34
45-54
35-44
Age Group
Age Group
Dowell Myers
USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development
55+
45-54
55+
Public
Transportation
Public
Transportation
NAHB, 1999
NAHB, 1999
Problems with Zoning
Plans tend to replicate existing
trends
Many favor large lot, expensive
housing
They are often barriers to higher
density uses and rental units
Market cannot respond to needs
and changes
Regional Housing Needs
Assessment
May 2004
The
Chicago
Region
Cities and
Villages of
the Region
Population age 30-54
2000 Housing Patterns – Chicago
Region
29%
52%
19%
SFR
Source: Census Bureau
Attached
Small Apts
Population 65+
2000 Housing Patterns - Chicago
14%
22%
50%
14%
SFR
Attached
Source: Census Bureau
Small Apts
Large Apts
Population 65+
2030 Housing Patterns – Chicago Region
A majority of residents in large apartment complexes will be 65
or older
Large Apts
71%
Small Apts
35%
Attached
39%
SFR
41%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Chicago Region Housing Mismatch
Trend (NIPC) Projected Need vs. Zoning Supply
$8
75
$1
,0
00
$1
,5
00
$1
,8
75
$2
,5
00
$3
,1
25
$5
,0
00
$7
50
$6
25
$5
00
$2
50
$0
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Projected Need
Supply
Apartment/Condominium
$300 - $1500 rent
urban and suburban
redev, infill and
greenfield
Townhouse
Trend = 71,000 units
Matched Demand =
152,000 units
$600 - $2000
urban and suburban
redev, infill and
greenfield
Small Lot Single Family
Trend = 24,000 units
Matched Demand =
202,000 units
$700 - $2500
urban and suburban
infill and greenfield
Below Market Rent
Matched Demand =
73,000 units
$0 - $500
urban and suburban
redev, infill and
greenfield
Waukegan Strategies
Infill in Urban Neighborhoods
Downtown
Revitalization
East-West
Corridor
Enhancement
Station Area Development
Capitalize on
Lakefront
setting in
Corridor
Development
Transportation Issues
Transportation Problems
Alternatives to Driving
Pedestrians in the Conventional Suburban Development
supporting alternative modes through urban design
Pedestrians: 25th Anniversary of the Moonwalk
supporting alternative modes through urban design
Solution: Walkable Cities
Housing Choice
What makes people walk?
– Walkable
Distances
What makes people walk?
– Practical Destinations
What makes people walk?
– Pleasant and
Interesting
Environment, a
Human Scale
Pleasant Environment
The 2040 Growth Concept
The 2040 Growth Concept
The 2040 Growth Concept results
in:
Less Congestion
Less Transportation investment
More walk, bike, and transit trips
What Makes 2040 Work
–
–
–
Mixed use design
Density in proximity to commerce and
transit
Mixed age and income neighborhoods
RIVER DISTRICT 1999
VMT per Capita and Transit Ridership per Capita 1990 to 2000
Portland Metro Area
1.3
1.25
1.2
1.15
DVMT/Capita
1.1
Ridership/Capita
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Challenges for the Region
Project Methodology
Extensive
Public
Participation
Hands-on
Workshops
Throughout
the Region
Transportation
Economy
Land Use
Shared Values, Shared Future
Strategic Land Use Changes In
Relatively Few Areas Provide
Great Benefits to the Region
What can Governors do?
Housing
Develop state or regional housing needs
analysis – identify how future housing needs
change.
Monitor local housing markets, look for problems
caused by undersupply of needed housing
Develop state or regional housing fair share
programs.
Incentives and models for more flexible zoning
What can Governors do?
Transportation
Support well rounded transportation
policies – multi modal
Support connecting land use and
transportation
Encourage the development of walkable
cities and regions
Raise the issues of seniors and mobility
For more Information, go to
www.frego.com
333 S.W Fifth Avenue, Suite 300
Portland, OR 97204
503-228-3054
Fax 503-525-0478