Transcript 11_Food_vs_Fuel_F_Kobbe

FOOD VS. FUEL
Steak on the plate or bio in the tank?
Franka Kobbe
Global Change Management
Physical Fundamentals of GC
Table Of Content
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What‘s the problem?
Global Land Use
Global Food Demand
Global Energy Demand
EU and Germany
Conclusion
Sources
What‘s the problem?
growing world population:
rising requirements of raw materials and
nutrition & transportation and mobility
What‘s the problem?
growing world population:
rising requirements of raw materials and
nutrition & transportation and mobility
global growing demand for food & bioenergy
land use competition for bioproductive land
(Food Or Fuel?)
„can we feed the need?“
Global Land Use
• global surface area of continents amounts to 14.9 billion ha
 34 % is used for agricultural purposes
 26 % is covered by forests (natural and cultivated)
 34 % is either covered by glaciers, deserts etc.
 2.4 % is built-up land with settlements and infrastructures
• nearly 2/3 of earth‘s surface could be exploited as grazing
land, half of this also suitable for arable cropping
• biophysical Limit of food production =
is reached when all land suitable for agriculture is cropped
and the potential yield on each field is attained
Global Land Use
BUT:
land serves also other functions:
 valuable ecosystems, high biodiversity,
with resilience and buffering functions to support
the anthroposphere,
 refuges for wild-life,
 growing tourist market,
 land for industry, traffic and building
Global Food Demand
• approx. 841 million people are
undernourished and chronically hungry,
20 % of the developing countries’ total
population
• unfair distribution of income in the world:
> 1 billion people live on less than 1 US$
per day
• to fight world hunger effectively, the yield
at grain would have to be increased until
2020 by 50%
Global Food Demand
• increasing demand for diets containing
more animal proteins especially in
industrialized countries
• surplus production of food („Milchseen,
Butterberge“ ect.)
 fairer redistribution of food
Global Energy Demand
• today: world-wide energy consumption is
nearly twice as highly as at the beginning
of the 70's
• rise about 1/3 until 2020
• strongly growing power requirement of
developing countries (China, India)
• 1/3 of world population still without power
supply
Global Energy Demand
• greenhouse gas abatement policies will
force the demand for renewable sources
of energy
• 10 % of world energy demand is now
covered by bioenergy
• global energy potential for use of biomass
is estimated 25-33 % of global energy
demand
(potentials differ regional)
EU and Germany
! ¾ of global agricultural land use of EU is used for
production of meat and milk products !
• reduction to a level, that is favorable for health of the
population and the environment could result in more area
for production of Non- Food- Biomass
changes of:
 agricultural production and cosuming patterns
 political & social frameworks is required!
(The steak on the plate is now cheaper than cat fodder!)
EU and Germany
• 2020: 20 % share of bio in all fuels 
increased demand of area about 17-38 %
• How to cover this demand?
 more spatial expansion?
 enhance productivity & efficiency?
• EU uses additional 35 mill. ha at non-european
areas for food production
EU and Germany
• 17 mill. ha are agricultural used
(49,3 % of total area)
• 4 mio. ha (20 – 25 %) of arable land could be
used for cultivation of biofuels, not intended for
food production (set aside areas)
• biomass should cover 13 % of total energy
demand till 2030
• one of the largest producers of biodiesel mostly
from rapeseed
Effects of Global Change
Conflict will increase:
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Erosion
Desertification
Salinisation
Settling
on productive, high yielding soils  degraded soils
• water resources (precipitation, irrigation)
• deforestation of tropical forests
• high rationalized & intensiv farming
Conclusion
• impacts of a global Bioenergy market on world
nutrition, agriculture and environment are not really
estimated yet and vary from region to region
• optimistic view: well balanced world market for
bioenergy and nourishment could be a driving force
to use potentials in southern regions and the rural
area
• sustainable scenarios are needed
and this is only my opinion:
fairer world economy is required
Sources
• International Food Policy Research Institute
2020 VISION For Food, Agriculture and the Environment
Bioenergy and Agriculture: Promises and Challenges
www.ifpri.org
• A scenario based analysis of land competition between food
and bioenergy production in the US
Daniel J.A. JOHANSSON - Christian AZAR
Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
• Global Issue Papers No. 20 August 2005:
Bio im Tank: Chancen – Risiken – Nebenwirkungen
Dokumentation einer Fachtagung der Heinrich Böll Stiftung
am 15. April 2005 in Berlin
Thanks For Your Attention!
And merry christmas!
Questions?
Comments for Franka Kobbe
from Manfred Stock
1.
To be finished .....