Transcript PPT, 2.6 MB - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research

(AIACC. AF90 NORTH AFRICA PROJECT)
Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability to
Climate Change on North Africa:
Food Production and Water Needs
AIACC Regional Workshop (23 – 27 March. Dakar. Senegal)
Tunisien contribution
Stakeholders engagement By Survey analysis in
Kairouan region.
Raoudha Mougou, Amel Nafti and Riadh Chatteli
Vulnerability.
Tunisia climate
(Aride and Semi aride (75 % of total area)
• Low rainfall
• High temperature
• High radiation
• Variable rainfall
• Mediocre quality of water
More then 30% available
water >3g/l salt
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Increasing rainfall variability
• Increasing temperature
• High evaporation
WATER RESOURCES
LIMITED
VARIABLE MEDIODRE
QUALITY
POPULATION INCREASE
•Agricultural, industrial, touristic activity
• Increasing evaporation rate
• Increasing water deficit
Unbalance between offer and demand
Vulnerability.
Distribution of
agricultural land use
in Tunisia
Atlas des sols tunisiens.
(Mtimet .1999)
Cereals
Fruit trees
1.6 millions of hectares.
2 millions of hectares
34% of cultivated areas
1.3 millions of hectares olives trees
16% of total production.
40% of cultivated areas
60 % of exported food products
Vulnerability.
The importance of Rainfed agriculture
(Data 1993)
Irrigated areas
(1000ha)
Rainfed areas
(1000ha)
Rainfed/Total
(1000ha)
ِCereals
34
1646
97%
Trees
130
1835
93%
Vegetable
108
42
28%
Fodder
23
285
92%
Climate impacts.
Wheat water deficit (Different bioclimatic regions)
Kairouan (Aride)
Tunis
(Semi aride)
Jendouba
(Semi aride)
Bizerte
(Humide)
(Mougou et Hénia. 1996)
Climate impacts.
Cereals yields in the North and the Centre regions
Q/ha
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Rendement/SR Kairouan
Rendement/SR Béja
Climate impacts.
Effect of irrigation on cereals production
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Climate impacts.
Average cereal yields in Kairouan region
Rainfed cereals and Irrigated cereals
Rainfed cereals
Irrigated cereals
Durum wheat
Barley
Durum wheat
Barley
Average maximal
yield q/ha
32.8
39.6
46.7
54.2
Average minimal
yield q/ha
0
0
24.2
37.9
Climate impacts.
Mean yield during rainy and dry years
(1995 to 2003) in Kairouan region
Rainy years
(1995/1996 and
2002/2003
Mean
Mean
rainfall (mm) yields (qt)
Dry years
(1996/1997 to 2001/2002)
Mean rainfall
(mm)
Mean
yields (qt)
Yield increase
during rainy
years in relation
to dry years
(%)
Kairouan
231.55
15.5
114.2
6.5
138
Sbikha
275.2
17.5
112.6
6.3
178
Haffouz
269.15
14
99.1
6
133
Ouslatia
317.7
15.5
130.9
8.6
80
- The wheat yield during rainy years are too higher than dry years.
- The yield increase during the rainy years ranges between:
178 percent (Sbikha) and 80 percent (Ouslatia) of dry years yields.
Stakeholders engagement
By Survey analysis in
Kairouan region
The first beneficiaries are the smalls farmers.
- Materiel conditions
- Knowledge
- Nombre (about 80%)
Areas in
hectares
Rate of total
number (%)
Rate of total
area (%)
≤ 5 ha
53
9
≤ 10 ha
73
21
Survey analysis
Survey objectives
- to define
the rate of rainfed cereals in the farms;
the farmers behaviour toward the climate variability effect on
agricultural production;
the current and future vulnerability of rainfed cereals;
- to analyse the capability of the farmers to adapt to climate
variability;
- to list the adaptation methods already used in the farms;
- to specify what prevent the farmers to adapt to current and future
climate variability.
Survey analysis
and here
We are here
and here
- How the survey analysis have been made ?
- Who was involved ?
Vulnerability.
Kairouan region
CARTE BIOCLIMATIQUE DE LA TUNISIE
D'après la carte éditée à une subvention du
C.N.R.S.Paris,FRANCE accordée à M. Mohamed
Abdelhamid NABLI,Professeur à la Faculté des
Sciences de Tunis. TUNISIE
Bizerte
Sejnane
El Haouaria
Mateur
Tabarka
Tunis
Kélibia
Ain Draham
Beja
Jendouba
Zaghouan
- The most vulnerable region because of
high climatic variability.
Nabeul
Le Kef
Siliana
Maktar
Sousse
Monastir
Kairouan
Thala
Mahdia
- Water deficit and drought represent a
permanent risk for rainfed agriculture.
•Drought may occurs: 1 year out of 3 or out of 4.
El Jem
Kasserine
Sidi Bou Zid
Sfax
Gafsa
Nafta
Houmt Souk
Tozeur
Gabès
Kébili
Matmata
Douz
Medenine
Ben Gardane
- Severely dry years (deficit > 50%),
drought persistence: more frequent in
the south and the center than in the
North.
Tataouine
-Moderate temperatures, but very hot
conditions frequent may occur from May to
September
LEGENDE
Remada
Humide supérieur
Borj Bourguiba
Humide inférieur
Sub-humide
Semi-aride supérieur et moyen
Semi-aride inférieur
Aride supérieur
Aride inférieur
Saharien supérieur
Saharien inférieur
Dressé et dessiné par Fitouri Mustapha I.N.R.G.R.E.F.11/2002
Echelle
0 km
100 km
-High temperatures (45°C in August) may
affect cereal production when they occur in
the growing season by increasing the
evaporation rate.
Survey analysis
Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Environnement
et des Ressources Hydrauliques
INRGREF
Questionnaire destiné aux agriculteurs
Cadre de l'enquête :
Projet sur « l'Evaluation de l'Impact et Adaptation
au Changement Climatique »
AIACC AF 90 : North Africa Project
Gouvernorat de Kairouan
Enquête N° :…………………
Menée par : …………………………………
Date :……………………………………….
Survey analysis
1- Localisation de l’exploitation
2- Identification de l'agriculteur
3- Systèmes de production et modes de conduite
3.1- Répartition des cultures
3.2- Pratiquez- vous l’élevage ?
4- Occupation des parcelles
5- Techniques utilisées (Céréales en pluvial)
6- Variation des rendements (Céréales en pluvial)
7- Causes des variations des rendements
8- Causes des variations de la production
9- Climat et production
10- Etat des connaissances des agriculteurs sur le
changement climatique
11- Mesures d'adaptation
Survey analysis
Survey Sampling Methods
1500 of them
have changed
their production
system to market
gardening
3500 farmers that
produce cereals in the
Kairouan region
A significant sample must contain
at least 5% of total population.
~ 2000 farmers
represent cereal
production
The sampling method:
“Random Sampling”
100 farmers
We limited the survey to 3% of total
population.
58 farmers
Survey analysis
Characteristics of the target farmers
Farmers
- Average age: 58 years
Schooling:
- Illiterate: 55.17 %
- Primary education: 36.20 %
- Secondary: 5.17 %
-Higher: 3.45 %
Low schooling rate
-Farms
- Average farm size: 29.83 ha
- Percentage of farms smaller than 10 ha: 34.5 %
- Percentage of farms between 10 ha and 50 ha: 53.5 %
- Percentage of farms larger than 50ha: 12 %
The farms size is
relatively high
compared to the
average farms size.
Survey analysis
Farmers attitude toward climat
 The totality of farmers expressed their suffering from difficult
climatic conditions and drought years (1997 to 2002).
 Even
during the rainy years rainfall distribution can be inadequate
for the crops.
Dry conditions in March decrease cereal production and result in a
loss of income for the farmer.
- 96.5 % of agricultural output is determined by climate.
- 12 % knows the possibility of adaptation methods to climatic
change.
- 91.4 % of the farmers use their own methods of adaptation to
current climate variability.
- 48.4 % of them have the will to build a well, but they found
administrative, financial and land constraints.
Survey analysis
Adaptation methodes used by the farmers
 Changes of sowing date if the autumn is drier than normal;
 Storage of fodder to ensure the livestock food;
 Cactus cultivation for fodder in dry years;
 Changes in cultural techniques ;
 Ovine breeding is considered as a valuable option and
interesting adaptation strategy, (the potential resistance of
sheep, their capacity for using a fodder resources, the
possibility of using crops without alternative value, such as
cactus, that is an added value of sheep production
 The choice of crop varieties is not considered important and
is not listed as an adaptation option by the majority of the
farmers.
 Supplementary Irrigation
Survey analysis
Irrigation
 Supplementary irrigation is applied by 25.86 % of the farmers.
 Irrigation
is applied mainly to fodder crops for livestock.
 The
irrigated surface represent only 3.26 % of the total cultivated
area because of:
-the small amount of water available;
-the financial constraints to purchase irrigation materials.
 All
farmers that use supplemental irrigation are conscious of the
advantages of fertilization and its management (date, frequencies
and quantities).

Rainfed cereals are the principal activity even for the farmers
who have access to water.
Survey analysis
To conclude
Previous analyses of drought
management in Tunisia
that variability in cereal production
is explained by the variability of
rainfall with a rate of:
This is confirmed by our study that
shows that in Kairouan region
rainfall variability explains 56 %
of the cereal yield variability
78 % for the North;
50 % for the Center;
40 % for the South.
According to farmers:
96.5 % of agricultural
output are determined by climate
The farmers over-estimate the
effect of climate variability.
Survey analysis
Why ? And How ?
In addition to climate variability, the low yields could be explained by:
-A very low level of farmers schooling:
 Only 20.7 % of farmers adopt the extension services advice.
 The farmers cannot adopt easily new techniques even if they
agree with them.
 A difficulty for the extension services to change the farmers
behaviours.
The extension services are efficient only in medium and large farms
(Dr. Chennoufi and Dr. Nefzaoui) :
“technologies generated appear to be more readily adopted by large-scale farmers,
agricultural development agencies, rural development societies and cooperative
farms, rather than by the majority of medium-and small-scale farmers” .
The involvement of the rural population concerned to attain the
objective remains essential. That is why nowadays the participative
approach is necessary for the use of new technology.
The approach objective is to develop technologies adapted to the
ecological and socio economic conditions.
We can attend these objectives by research development programs
realized taking into account the farmer’s strategies.
Nevertheless in Tunisia, the strategies of rural development are
directed towards a participative approach and a technical aid
mainly for small farmers who represent about 80% of farmers.