Transcript Toronto Real Estate Board

Toronto Real Estate Board
June 2013
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Presentation Outline…
The Provincial Lay of The Land for Added Context
 Provincial Vote, Leader and Party Attributes
Assessing the GTA Region…
Perception of Efficiency and Cost-Effectiveness of
Municipal Spending
416 Support for Repeal of Land Transfer Tax
416 Repeal of Land Transfer Tax Over Time
416 Impact and Attitudes About Land Transfer Tax
Likely Home Purchase in GTA in Next 2 Years and
Impact
LTT Perceptions in the 905
Conclusions
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Methodology…
 This report presents the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted from May 10th to 22nd,
2013, on behalf of the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB): a sample of 1,012 adults from
Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online, of which 606 live in Toronto proper
and 406 live in the surrounding 905 region. Where appropriate, tracking has been
provided based on polls conducted in May/November 2011 and 2012.
 For the Ontario wide polling, a sample of 1,772 adults was conducted May 15 to 21, 2013.
 Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's
composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide
results intended to approximate the sample universe.
 The precision of Ipsos online polls are measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the
poll is accurate to within +/-3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results
would have been had the entire population of adults in the GTA been polled, +/- 4.6
percentage points of all Torontonians, and +/- 5.5 percentage points of all those living in the
surrounding areas of the GTA.
 When it comes to prospective homebuyers in the GTA region, the poll is accurate to
within:
 +/- 9.3 percentage points of all prospective homebuyers in Toronto proper
 +/- 10.7 percentage points of all prospective homebuyers in the surrounding GTA
 All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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The Provincial Lay of
The Land for Added
Context…
The Ontario Political Scene
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Top Issues / Concerns—Ontario: 61% Economy/Jobs
Thinking of issues presently facing Canadians, which one do you feel should receive the greatest
attention from Canada’s leaders?
Figures represent “Total Mentions”. Up to two issues were accepted from each respondent, thus
percentages will exceed 100.
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What Vote Does it Take
to Get a Majority
Government in
Ontario?
39% to 40%
The Ontario Political Scene
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Liberals +2% Deserve Re-election…
Some people say that the Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne has done a good job and
deserves to be re-elected during the next provincial election. Other people say that it is time for another
provincial party to take over and run the province. Which of these statements is closest to your point of
view? Base: All Respondents 1772
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2013 Ontario Vote Support: Grits (+6)Tie Tories
(-3), NDP Down (-3)…
May 21st percentage of decided voters
CTV Ipsos Reid Survey, May 15th to 21st, 2013. Decided voters including leaners (n=1,487).
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Leader and Party
Attributes…
Watch the NDP…
The Ontario Political Scene
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Provide the most effective opposition, holding the
government to account…
Which of the following parties and leaders do you think would be most likely to do the following:
Most Effective
Opposition
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Provide the most transparent, open and accountable
government to Ontarians…
Which of the following parties and leaders do you think would be most likely to do the following:
Transparent,
Open and
Accountable
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Do the best job of providing social services at
reasonable levels of taxation
Which of the following parties and leaders do you think would be most likely to do the following:
Social Services
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Protect your pocketbook and the taxes you pay
Which of the following parties and leaders do you think would be most likely to do the following:
Protect Your
Pocketbook
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Winners?
Liberals and NDP…
The Ontario Political Scene
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Assessing the GTA
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GTA Region—Perception of Efficiency and CostEffectiveness of Municipal Spending: 905(+6) Higher
than 416…
%Very/Somewhat
Efficient & CostEffective
416
52%
905
58%
Overall, to what extent do you believe the money being spent by your municipality on programs and services it delivers to your community is being spent in an
efficient and cost-effective manner?
Base: all respondents April 2011 (n=913); November 2011 (n=819); April 2012 (n=1257); November 2012 (n=1112); May 2013 (n=1012)
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GTA—Regional Variation on Perception of Efficiency and
Cost-Effectiveness of Municipal Spending
May 2013
% Efficient (Very + Somewhat)
905
REGION
REGION
416
Overall, to what extent do you believe the money being spent by your municipality on programs and services it delivers to your community is being spent in an
efficient and cost-effective manner?
Base: all respondents April 2011 (n=913); November 2011 (n=819); April 2012 (n=1257); November 2012 (n=1112) ; May 2013 (n=1012)
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Support for Repeal of
Land Transfer Tax
416
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416 Region—Support for Repeal of Land Transfer Tax
Down from 2011 but Holding at 2/3rds Opposed…
%Strongly/
Somewhat
Support
65%
68%
66%
65%
75%
As you may know, in 2008, the City of Toronto began charging a municipal Land Transfer Tax on homebuyers when they purchase a home, in addition to the provincial
land transfer tax charged by the Province. For the average Toronto homebuyer, the Toronto Land Transfer Tax amounts to about $6,000 payable in full when a home
is purchased. Mayor Rob Ford’s election platform included a commitment to repeal the Toronto Land Transfer Tax, and he has publicly reaffirmed this commitment
since being elected. To what extent do you support or oppose Mayor Rob Ford’s plan to repeal the Toronto Land Transfer Tax?
Base: 416 area code April 2011 (n=485); November 2011 (n=406); April 2012 (n=653); November 2012 (n=686); May 2013 (n=606)
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416 Regional Variation on Support for Repeal of
Land Transfer Tax
May 2013
% Support (Strongly + Somewhat)
416
Region
As you may know, in 2008, the City of Toronto began charging a municipal Land Transfer Tax on homebuyers when they purchase a home, in addition to the provincial
land transfer tax charged by the Province. For the average Toronto homebuyer, the Toronto Land Transfer Tax amounts to about $6,000 payable in full when a home
is purchased. Mayor Rob Ford’s election platform included a commitment to repeal the Toronto Land Transfer Tax, and he has publicly reaffirmed this commitment
since being elected. To what extent do you support or oppose Mayor Rob Ford’s plan to repeal the Toronto Land Transfer Tax?
Base: 416 area code April 2011 (n=485); November 2011 (n=406); April 2012 (n=653); November 2012 (n=686); May 2013 (n=606)
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416 Support for Gradually Phasing Out the LTT
instead of All at Once…65%
%Strongly/
Somewhat
Support
65%
74%
69%
65%
65%
55%
To what extent would you support or oppose repealing the Toronto Land Transfer Tax if it was phased-out, gradually, by a pre-determined
percentage each year, instead of all at once?
Base: 416 area code (n=606)
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416 Impact and
Attitudes About Land
Transfer Tax
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416 Region—First Time Home Buyer LTT Exemptions
UP…
Have you purchased a home in the City of Toronto in the last three years? Base: 416 area code (n=606)
7T. Currently, first-time home buyers can qualify for a rebate of the Toronto Land Transfer Tax of up to $3,725, equal to the Toronto Land Transfer
Tax owing on a $400,000 property. First-time home buyers who purchase a home priced up to $400,000 do not pay the tax. First-time home buyers
who purchase a home priced over $400,000 pay only the amount of tax owing over the allowed rebate of $3,725. As someone who purchased a
home in the City of Toronto in the last three years, did you pay any Toronto Land Transfer Tax or did you qualify for a full exemption as a first-time
buyer? Base: Have purchased home in City of Toronto in P3Y (n=67)
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416 Region—Recent Land Transfer Tax Payers: Only 10% Feel
There is Some Value Added to Services City Provides…
2013:
% A lot/Some Added Value or
Improvement in the Services the
City Provides
10%
2013:
% Little/No
Added Value in
or Improvement
in the Services
the City Provides
90%
As someone who recently purchased a home in the City of Toronto, and paid the Toronto Land Transfer Tax, do you feel that you have received added value in municipal services for the
amount of Land Transfer Tax that you paid to the City?
Base: Paid tax (n=34)
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416 Region—Land Transfer Taxpayers: What They Would Do as
Alternative Use of Funds: Retirement Savings Get Boost (+8)…
As someone who recently purchased a home in the City of Toronto, and paid the Toronto Land Transfer Tax, if you had not had to pay this tax, would you have used
that money to do any of the following:
Base: Paid tax (n=34)
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Likely Home Purchase
in GTA in Next 2 Years
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GTA Region—Likelihood to Purchase a Home in Next
Two Years Holding Steady: 7%
How likely are you to purchase a home in the next two years?
Base: All respondents 416 (n=606), GTA (n=406)
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GTA Region—Likely Home Purchasers: Desired
Location: Most Likely 905…
TOTAL—May 2013
When considering where to purchase a home, what area are you considering?
Base: Likely to purchase home in N2Y (n=248)
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LTT Would Limit Ability to Afford Home Purchase: 75%
% Likely
(Very/
Somewhat)
75%
80%
68%
As someone considering the purchase of a home, how likely is it that the addition of a municipal land transfer tax in your area would.... Limit your
ability to afford the home purchase
Base: respondents likely to purchase a home in the next two years (416 n=141) (905 n=107)
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GTA Region—Likely Home Buyers and the Importance
of Land Transfer Tax on Purchasing Decision:
May 2013
74% of potential GTA
homebuyers say they’re
more likely to consider
purchasing a home
outside of Toronto
including:
65% of 416 Residents
91% of 905 Residents
As someone considering the purchase of a home in the City of Toronto or the 905 region outside of the City of Toronto, to what extent does the Toronto
Land Transfer Tax make you more likely to consider purchasing a home outside of the City of Toronto, in nearby municipalities, where there is no
municipal land transfer tax?
Base: Likely to purchase home in City of Toronto/905 region (n=153)
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905 Region—Support for New Municipal Land Transfer Tax…3/4
(77%) Oppose…
%Strongly/
Somewhat
Support
23%
27%
28%
14%
23%
40%
17%
Currently, all home buyers in Ontario are required to pay a provincial land transfer tax when they purchase a home. For the average home buyer in the
“905” regions surrounding Toronto, the provincial Land Transfer Tax amounts to about $6,000 payable in full when a home is purchased. Home buyers in
Toronto are required to also pay a municipal land transfer tax on top of the provincial tax. Toronto is the only municipality that does this in the province
and it effectively doubles the normal provincial transfer tax when combined with the municipal tax. Now, some officials and politicians are suggesting
that a similar municipal land transfer tax be levied on home buyers in other Greater Toronto Area municipalities, so that the tax revenue can be used to
offset potential deficit shortfalls and can be put towards increased investments in local infrastructure and other city programs. Generally speaking, do
you support or oppose a new municipal land transfer tax that would be added to the provincial land transfer tax for the buyer of a home in your area?
Base: all respondents (n=406);
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80% Say LTT Would Impact Decision to Move Within That
Municipality…
% Likely
(Very/
Somewhat)
80%
85%
69%
As someone considering the purchase of a home, how likely is it that the addition of a municipal land transfer tax in your area would.... Impact your decision to move
within that municipality
Base: Respondents likely to purchase a home in the next two years (416 n=141) (905 n=107)
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81% Existence of LTT Would Make You More Likely to Look For
Area with No LTT…
% Likely
(Very/
Somewhat)
81%
83%
71%
As someone considering the purchase of a home, how likely is it that the addition of a municipal land transfer tax in your area would.... Make you more likely to
look for a home in a municipality that doesn't charge a municipal Land Transfer Tax
Base: Respondents likely to purchase a home in the next two years (416 n=141) (905 n=107)
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Conclusions
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Conclusions…
 The economy, jobs, and healthcare are by far the most important issues to Ontarians.
 The political scene in Ontario is volatile – the Liberals and PCs are tied, but Horwath the
“dark horse”. She’s providing an effective opposition and Ontarians see her as being the
most transparent and accountable leader. Hudak protects the pocketbook, but struggles
to balance social services with fiscal responsibility.
 Liberals have battled back and now have a year under Premier Wynne to hold her own
against other party leaders as 36% believe she deserves re-election.
 Home-buying intentions in the GTA are flat, suggesting that the general slowdown in the
housing market might not hit the GTA as hard as in other regions of the country.
 Support for repealing the LTT in Toronto remains strong at two-thirds support (65%),
statistically unchanged since November 2011. A majority of residents in every part of the
city support repealing the LTT. Moreover, two in three (65%) would support the LTT being
phased out gradually by a pre-determined percentage each year, instead of all at once.
 Just one in four (23%) residents of the 905 support a municipal Land Transfer Tax in their
region, while most (77%) oppose . Opposition is highest in Brampton, and a strong
majority of residents in every region of the 905 oppose the introduction of a municipal
LTT.
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Conclusions… continued
 Among homeowners who have paid the LTT, the belief that they receive no added value
continues to increase, from 46% in April of 2012 to 73% currently. Few (10%) say that
they have received added value in municipal services for the amount of LTT they paid.
Instead of paying the LTT, these taxpayers would rather use the money to reduce their
mortgage (56%), use it for retirement savings (47%), home renovations (29%) or
purchase furnishings or appliances for their home (23%).
 Among those who are at least somewhat likely to purchase a home in the next two
years, they are more likely to consider the 905 region (48%) than the City of Toronto
(31%), while two in ten (21%) will look in both regions.
 Among those looking to buy, 74% say that the presence of the LTT in Toronto makes
them more likely to consider purchasing a home outside of Toronto.
 Among those looking to purchase a home, two thirds (75%) say that a municipal LTT
would be likely to limit their ability to afford the purchase of a home. Eight in ten (80%)
say it would be likely to impact their decision to move within that municipality, while a
similar proportion (81%) says it would make them more likely to look to move to an area
without an LTT.
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Contact
John Wright
Senior Vice President and Managing Director
Public Opinion Polling Division and Global @dvisor
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
160 Bloor Street East, Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M4W 1B9
Direct: 416.324.2002 Mobile: 416.919.2101
[email protected] | http://www.ipsospa.com
Ipsos Public Affairs - The Social Research and Corporate Reputation Specialists
Thank You
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