Transcript Australia’s medium to long term energy outlook

Addressing the climate change challenge
in APEC
Melanie Ford & Don Gunasekera
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics
Framework for analysis -GTEM

Global Trade and Environment Model





multiregion (bilateral trade flows)
multisector
dynamic
computable
general equilibrium

model of the world economy
GTEM

Core economic systems

Population module

Emissions module
Regions in GTEM
87, aggregated for particular
application
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
European Union (25)
India
Indonesia
Japan
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Korea, Republic of
Mexico
Russian Federation
South Africa
United States
Rest of SE Asia
Rest of CIS
Chinese Taipei
Rest of the world
Sectors/commodities in GTEM
67, aggregated for particular application
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Brown coal
Coking coal
Thermal coal
13
14
15
Oil
16
Gas
17
Other minerals
18
Iron & steel
19
Nonferrous metals
20
Nonmetallic minerals prod. 21
Chemicals, rubber & plastic
Wood, pulp & paper
Petroleum & coal products
Food processing
Other manufacturing
Electricity
Water transport
Air transport
Other transport
Other services
Agriculture
Forestry & fisheries
General equilibrium
Optimising behaviour
Commodity markets clear; globally
Factor markets clear; regionally
Financial markets clear; globally
Numerical implementation
flexible model closures
enhanced GTAP database
2001 base year – historical numbers to 2005
GEMPACK implementation
Greenhouse module
carbon dioxide
nitrous oxide
methane
HGWPs
energy & non-energy emissions
Interpretation of GTEM results
Key results
 Macro: Carbon price/Emissions
outcome, GNP, GDP, exchange rate,
real wage
 Sectoral: Output, employment,
exports, imports
 Other: Policy interaction effects, sources
of welfare gains/losses
Overview

1. Assess the role of cleaner technologies in
mitigating emissions and addressing other
economic, energy security and social
development goals in APEC


no land use change emissions
2. Potential role of emissions mitigation in forestry
APEC economies

APEC economies currently account for:
 61 per cent of global economic output
 60 per cent of global energy consumption
 58 per cent of global GHG emissions
 41 per cent of global population

APEC actions are driving regional and global
economic, social and environmental outcomes.
Technology – addressing the climate
change challenge in APEC

Aim of analysis – What is the role of
advanced, cleaner technologies in APEC on:
 energy consumption & fuel mix
 electricity generation & fuel mix
 greenhouse gas emissions
Scenario assumptions

developed plausible APEC and global technology
pathways to 2050 in a world committed to reducing
emissions

enhanced development and uptake:
 more energy efficient currently available
& future technologies
 advanced lower emissions technologies

APEC, global and economy-wide uptake from ~ 2010
Key technologies
electricity
advanced
transport
more
households and buildings
more
coal and gas
advanced & lower cost renewables and nuclear
CCS from ~2020
efficient ICE’s
hybrids
biofuels
efficient end-use energy consumption
CFLs
LEDs
heating
and hot water
better building design
pathway
differs by region and sector
Full range of measures needed

address barriers to uptake & development of currently
available and plausible future advanced technologies










carbon pricing
RD&D funding
regulatory arrangements
technology partnerships
international collaboration
IP regimes
information
education and training campaigns
adaptation strategies
better understanding of costs and benefits
APEC energy consumption,
reference case
5
4
2004
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
3
2
1
Gtoe
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
other
renewables
biomass
APEC emissions,
reference case
total APEC
50
40
low income APEC
30
high income APEC
20
10
Gt CO2-e
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
APEC energy consumption
Enhanced technology
Reference case
Gtoe
15
10
Gtoe
biomass
other renewables
hydro
nuclear
gas
oil
coal
15
10
5
5
0
0
2005
2020
2035
2050
2005
biomass
other renewables
hydro
nuclear
gas
oil
coal
2020
2035
2050
APEC electricity fuel mix
Enhanced technology
Reference case
'000 TWh
'000 TWh
non hydro renewables
35
hydro
nuclear
30
gas
oil
25
coal
35
30
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
2005
0
2005
2020
2035
2050
non hydro renewables
hydro
nuclear
gas with ccs
gas without ccs
oil
coal with ccs
coal without ccs
2020
2035
2050
APEC emissions
reference case
50
45
40
-49 per cent
35
30
25
enhanced technology
20
15
10
5
Gt CO2-e
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
short term: currently available techs
long term: advanced techs
2050
Emissions in low income APEC
reference case
30
20
enhanced technology
10
Gt CO2-e
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Emissions in high income APEC
30
20
reference case
10
enhanced technology
Gt CO2-e
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
APEC electricity emissions
15
reference case
10
5
enhanced technology
Gt CO2-e
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
APEC emissions abatement –
enhanced technology scenario
25
20
470 Gt CO2-e
28% decline
other
services
15
residential
10
key industry
agriculture
5
transport
Gt CO2-e
2005
2020
2035
2050
electricity emissions allocated to end users
APEC GHG emissions by end use
sector at 2050, percentage contribution
Enhanced technology
transport
29%
other
16%
services
8%
residential
7%
agriculture
15%
key
industry
25%
Mitigation potential in forestry

Globally, deforestation accounts for about 18-25 per cent of
anthropogenic emissions

However, carbon sequestration in forestry can play an important role in
reducing GHG emissions through: afforestation, reforestation,
reduced deforestation and improved forest management

APEC accounts for 54 per cent of world’s total forest area

APEC has recently experienced a net increase in forest area, which is a
reversal of historical trends
 Investment in forest plantations in China is driving this trend –
also United States, Viet Nam, Chile and New Zealand

Largest recent declines in forest area have occurred in Indonesia and
Mexico – agriculture, infrastructure expansion and logging
Emissions from forestry in APEC,
reference case – Mt CO2
2010
2030
2050
Total APEC
-22
-72
-264
North America
-239
-373
-707
North Asia (including China) -94
-395
-543
South East Asia
129
346
230
Russian Federation
44
19
-78
ABARE projections
ABARE’s analysis

Focus is on reducing deforestation in tropical forest
areas in APEC
 trees in tropical forests hold about 50 per cent
more carbon per hectare than trees outside the
tropics

What is the impact of halving the deforestation rate
in tropical south east Asian APEC economies over
the period 2009-2050?

Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam
Change in forestry emissions in tropical south
east Asian APEC region,
reduced deforestation scenario relative to
reference case
2030
%
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
2050
Key messages

Technology will play the key role in:

reducing energy consumption

decarbonising energy supply

reducing GHG emissions

addressing energy security

allowing simultaneous achievement of other economic
and social development goals
Key messages

By 2050, emissions in high income APEC economies
could be well below current levels with enhanced
technologies

Need concerted policy action in developed & developing
economies

Need portfolio of policy options and technologies

Reducing emissions from land use change will also play
an important role in reducing growth in APEC emissions
OECD/transition country emissions
35
reference case
30
25
20
15
enhanced technology
10
5
Gt CO2-e
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Developing country emissions
reference case
60
50
40
enhanced technology
30
20
10
Gt CO2-e
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
OECD/transition country emissions
35
reference case
30
25
20
15
enhanced technology
10
5
Gt CO2-e
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Global emissions abatement –
enhanced technology scenario
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
765 Gt CO2-e
26% decline
agriculture
other
key industry
services
residential
transport
Gt CO2-e
2005
2020
2035
2050
electricity emissions allocated to end users
Global GHG emissions by end use
sector at 2050, percentage contribution
enhanced technology
other sectors
14%
services
8%
transport
27%
residential
7%
key
industries
23%
agriculture
21%
Change in APEC energy consumption at 2050,
enhanced technology scenario relative to reference
case
250
200
150
100
50
%
-50
-100
total
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
positive energy security implications
other
renewables
biomass