Transcript Document

Labour Market Outlook in Labrador
A Presentation for the
Workforce Connex Forum: Labrador
June 19th, 2006
Department of Human Resources, Labour & Employment
Objectives of the Presentation
To help facilitate discussion among participants in the Workforce
Connex Forum by:
– Providing a high level overview of some key labour market trends
for Labrador, including examples of sub-regional differences
– Providing an overview of some current concerns and
opportunities as put forward by participants in the Fall 2005
Labour Market Information Workshops
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Background: Research on Provincial Labour Market Trends

Changing labour demand

How many workers will be
needed?
 Employment growth
 Duration of employment
 Part-year
work/Seasonality
 Unemployment spells


Where will workers needed?
 Industry distribution and
growth
 Occupational distribution
and growth
 Skill level and education
 Business size and
distribution
 Wage growth
 Recruitment and retention
issues
 Skill shortages
What’s going on elsewhere?

Quantity and quality of the labour
supply

Where will workers come from?
 Demographics
 Distribution/Growth/Decline
 Age
 Out-migration
 Immigration and In-migration
 Expatriates
 Local Workflows

What skills and experience will
workers have?
 Formal education, workplace
training, informal learning
 Literacy and essential skills
 Post-secondary enrolments,
graduates, outcomes

Who is in the labour force?
 Participants, employed,
unemployed, not in the labour
force
 Marginalized groups & barriers
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General Labour Market Overview: Labrador Region
Many common trends with the island portion of the province and other jurisdictions:
– Demographic change
– Rural and urban and sub-regional differences
– Out-migration, immigration
– Education levels of the workforce
– Increasing skills demands
– Recruitment and retention of workers
However, many unique or different influences in the regional labour market:
– Geographic distribution of the population
• Workflows
• Local training
–
–
–
–
–
Industry and occupational distribution & future opportunities
Rate of population change
Employment growth & employment income
Attraction and retention of workers
Aboriginal population
• Labour supply growth
• Education levels
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Emerging Labour Market Opportunities & Concerns
“What We Heard: A Summary of Regional Perspectives on Labour Market
Trends in Newfoundland and Labrador”, LMI Workshops Fall 2005
Overall outlook among participants in Labrador very optimistic
Future employment development opportunities cited for Labrador
– Mining sector (e.g. IOCC Expansion)
– Development of the Lower Churchill
– Completion of the Trans-Labrador Highway
– Developments in the oil and gas sector
– Environmental clean-up at CFB Goose Bay
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Emerging Labour Market Concerns & Opportunities cont’d
Changing Demographics
– Population Decline and Aging
• Growth in Aboriginal populations
– Out-migration, Intra-provincial migration, Immigration
• Potential for in-migration in Labrador & changing retirement patterns
– Skill shortages, recruitment and retention
• Limitation for continued growth and expansion
• Retention was a major issue in Labrador, especially among some professional
organization
• Anticipate increasing competition from Island portion of the province
– Older workers
– Decline of rural communities, increasing urbanization, risks for one-industry
towns
– Increasing opportunities for development and employment in the service
sector (e.g. increasing health services/changing population demands)
– Changing consumer demands may require retraining among the existing
workforce for new jobs and skill requirements
– Loss of local leaders and volunteer base
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Emerging Labour Market Concerns & Opportunities cont’d
Education & Training
– Responsiveness and capacity of the post-secondary education system
– Apprenticeship, Local training
– Rural/Urban differences
• Education levels among the urban workforce comparable to Canada
– Education levels among the workforce, Workplace training
– Distance education (e.g. MBA, INAP program)
Career Planning and Youth
– Retention of youth
Gender issues
– Women driving force behind labour force growth
– Daycare, workplace quality issues, wage disparity
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Emerging Labour Market Concerns & Opportunities cont’d
Increasing participation
– Older workers, Immigrants, Women, Persons with Disabilities,
– Aboriginal Populations
• Education and literacy levels, widening mismatch between skills available and
new entrants
• Limits capacity to take advantage of new opportunities
Labour market information
– More information tailored to specific groups
– Reaching employers
– Increasing awareness of opportunities, especially among youth
– Capacity building
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Labour Supply Highlights
Population Distribution
– About 70% of population in Labrador lives in Laborador West or Happy
Valley-Goose Bay areas
– 5.3% of provincial population in 2005 (little change since 1991, slight
increase by 2020)
– 52% of the Aboriginal population in the province (Census 2001)
– 65% of population is between 20 and 64 years old
Population Aging and Decline
– Next to the Avalon Region, Labrador has the second lowest rate of
population decline
– From 2005 to 2020, total population decline will continue but at a slower
pace
– Decline of the working-age population is going to accelerate
– Average retirement age has decreased to about 61 years old.
– About 22% of the population (15-64 years old) are currently within 10
years of the average retirement age.
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Population Change – Sub-Regional Differences
Total Population Change (%)
Total Population Change (%) - Age 20-64 Years
Period
Region
1991-2005 2005-2020f
Province
-11.0%
-4.9%
RSR 1: Labrador Region
-12.7%
-1.5%
Economic Zone 1
10.8%
7.1%
Economic Zone 2
-21.4%
-2.2%
Economic Zone 3
-9.3%
-0.6%
Economic Zone 4
-13.2%
-10.8%
Economic Zone 5
-12.1%
-4.6%
Period
Region
1991-2005 2005-2020f
Province
-2.3%
-12.4%
RSR 1: Labrador Region
-4.7%
-7.2%
Economic Zone 1
25.3%
13.8%
Economic Zone 2
-9.2%
-16.7%
Economic Zone 3
-5.8%
-1.3%
Economic Zone 4
-1.2%
-9.5%
Economic Zone 5
-12.8%
-11.4%
Data Analysis/Presentation prepared by HRLE based on results from the Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch Population Projection
System.
Note: Medium scenario assumptions used for projections to 2020
The rate of population growth in Economic Zone 1 is higher than anywhere
else in the province, including the St. John’s CMA.
12.6% of the population in Labrador resided in Economic Zone 1 in 2005
Aboriginal population has a strong influence on Labrador population trends
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Population trends may lead to labour shortages…
Ratio of Potential New Labour Market Entrants
(15-24yrs) for Every Potential Retiree (5564yrs), Province
15-24
120,000
Ratio of Potential New Labour Market Entrants
(15-24yrs) for Every Potential Retiree (55-64yrs)
RSR 1 Labrador
8,000
55-64
55-64 Year Olds
6,000
Population
90,000
Population
15-24 Year Olds
60,000
4,000
2,000
30,000
0
0
1991
1996
Population (15-24 Years & 55-64 Years),
1991-2020, Actual and Projected
2001
2006
2011
2016
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Population (15-24 Years & 55-64 Years),
1991-2020, Actual and Projected
However, there will be differences among regions and…
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There will be differences within regions
Ratio of Potential New Labour Market Entrants
(15-24yrs) for Every Potential Retiree (55-64yrs)
Zone 1
1,000
55-64 Year Olds
3,000
Population
Population
15-24 Year Olds
Ratio of Potential New Labour Market Entrants
(15-24yrs) for Every Potential Retiree (55-64yrs)
Zone 2
15-24 Year Olds
55-64 Year Olds
2,000
1,000
0
0
1991
1995
1999
Population (15-24 Years & 55-64 Years),
1991-2019, Actual and Projected
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Population (15-24 Years & 55-64 Years),
1991-2019, Actual and Projected
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Labour Supply Highlights: Workflows in Newfoundland and Labrador
•The majority of workers in Labrador live and work in same community
Source: Prepared by Geostats. Based on 2001 Census
Workflow data from custom tabulation provided by Statistics
Canada
Labour Supply: Education and Training
Proportion of Population 25-54 Years
Old
Province
Total - Highest level of schooling
Less Than High School
Labrador
Region
10A:
10B:
10C:
10D:
Pinw are Labrador Goose Bay Labrador
River
East Coast
Area
West
10E:
Labrador
North
100.0%
30.8%
26.7%
High School Diploma
9.3%
10.2%
Incomplete Post-Secondary
Post-Secondary Certificate or
Diploma
7.1%
8.2%
40.0%
46.0%
University Degree
12.8%
8.9%
37.9%
14.1%
9.6%
32.3%
11.3%
5.6%
27.6%
6.5%
9.4%
20.7%
12.9%
6.7%
36.6%
7.6%
12.5%
31.1%
6.2%
45.1%
4.9%
47.2%
9.6%
50.3%
9.5%
33.0%
9.8%
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Labour Supply: Education and Training
Workplace Training
Both Formal and Informal
Formal Training Only
Informal Training Only
No Training
RSR 1-Labrador
Majority of workers
do not participate in
workplace training
Main Types of Formal
Training
– Occupational
health, safety and
environmental
protection
– Team building,
communication
– Decision making,
problem solving
RSR 2 & 3-Corner Brook-St. Anthony
RSR 4-Stephenville-Port Aux Basques
RSR 5-GFW-Baie Verte-Harbour Breton
RSR 6-Gander-New Wes Valley
RSR 7-Clarenville-Bonavista
RSR 8-Burin Peninsula
RSR 9-Avalon
Total-Province
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Main Types of Informal
Training
– Equipment
– Computer
Applications
Proportion of Population
Source: Preliminary Results, Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Activity
Survey, NLSA (2004)
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Labour Demand: Employment
Average employment income has also
been increasing in the province and
Labrador
Average employment incomes in
Labrador are the second highest
in the province
Note again, there are subprovincial differences
Employment…Those with Employment Income
18,000
Count (those with employment income)
Labrador and the Avalon Regions are
the only two regions where
employment has met or exceeded
1990 levels in the past five years
RSR 1 - Labrador
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Source: Based on Canada Revenue Agency summary information as provided by Small Area and Administrative
Data Division, Statistics Canada.
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Labour Demand: Part-year employment
Distribution of FY & PY Workers (18-64 years old),
Census 2001Reference Year
90.0%
Worked part-year (1-48 weeks)
Worked full-year (49 weeks or more)
NL has the highest
percentage of partyear workers in the
country at 52%.
68% of workers in
rural areas were
employed in partyear jobs in 2001.
70.0%
50.0%
30.0%
Agg. NonCMA/CA
Agg.
CMA/CA
RSR9
RSR8
RSR7
RSR6
RSR5
RSR4
RSR3
RSR2
RSR1Labrador
NL
10.0%
•Part-year employment is a major influence on provincial labour markets
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Labour Demand: Part-year employment
Work Activity in 2000, Local Areas Within the Labrador Region (RSR 1)
Population Age 18-64 Years, Census 2001
% of Total Worked
% of Working-Age Population
Part-Year
Full-Year
Total
Worked
Pinware River (CCS 10A)
73.5%
27.0%
81.8%
17.8%
Labrador East Coast (CCS 10B)
80.7%
19.3%
86.6%
13.4%
Goose Bay Area (CCS 10C)
42.2%
57.8%
83.7%
16.4%
Labrador West (CCS 10D)
41.2%
58.8%
76.7%
23.3%
Labrador North (CCS 10E)
66.4%
33.6%
81.7%
18.3%
Labrador Region (RSR 1)
50.0%
50.0%
80.8%
19.2%
Local Areas (HRLE)
Did Not Work
In 2001, 68% of the Aboriginal Identity population in
Labrador (15+ Years) worked part-year or part-time
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Duration of work has been increasing…
Weeks Worked, Census, Reference Year
18-64 Year Olds, RSR 1- Labrador Region
60.0%
1990
2000
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
1 to 11
weeks
12 to 14
weeks
15 to 20
weeks
21 to 48
weeks
Worked fullyear (49 weeks
or more)
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Labour Demand: Industry Employment
Labrador Region:
Province:
Total - Industry (based on 1980 SIC)
14,945
Total - Industry (based on 1980 SIC)
Division D - Mining (including milling),
Quarrying and Oil Well Industries
15.4%
Division J - Retail Trade Industries
12.9%
Division J - Retail Trade Industries
11.5%
Division P - Health and Social Service
Industries
12.7%
Division P - Health and Social Service
Industries
9.9%
Division E - Manufacturing Industries
10.2%
Division N - Government Service Industries
9.4%
Division N - Government Service
Industries
8.2%
Division R - Other Service Industries
7.4%
Division O - Educational Service
Industries
7.9%
245,275
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Labour Demand: Top Three Industries for Employment within Region
CCS 10APinware River
Manufacturing
(17.1%)
Fishing &
Trapping
(15.7%)
Retail Trade
(10.6%)
CCS 10BLabrador East
Coast
CCS 10CGoose Bay Area
CCS 10DLabrador West
CCS 10ELabrador North
Fishing &
Trapping
(20.0%)
Health and
Social Service
(15.9%)
Mining (37.1%)
Health and
Social Service
(16.0%)
Manufacturing
(19.7%)
Government
Service (15.6%)
Retail Trade
(11.6%)
Government
Service
(15.6%)
Retail Trade
(12.7%)
Accommodation
& Food Services
(7.2%)
Construction
(9.7%)
Educational
Services
(11.8%)
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Labour Demand: Top Five Industries for Growth 1995-2000
Labrador Region:
Numbers of Workers
•Construction Industries
•Health and Social Service Industries
•Business Service Industries
•Wholesale Trade Industries
•Fishing and Trapping Industries
Rate of Growth
•Real Estate Operator and
Insurance Agent Industries
•Business Service Industries
•Construction Industries
•Wholesale Trade Industries
•Health and Social Service Industries
•Agricultural and Related Service
Industries***
Province:
Numbers of Workers
•Health and Social Service Industries
•Business Service Industries
•Fishing and Trapping Industries
•Wholesale Trade Industries
•Manufacturing Industries
•Fish Processing
Rate of Growth
•Business Service Industries
•Fishing and Trapping Industries
•Wholesale Trade Industries
•Health and Social Service Industries
•Mining (including milling), Quarrying
and Oil Well Industries
Source: Custom tabulation, 1996 and 2001 Census,
Statistics Canada
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Labour Demand: Occupational Distribution
Source: Statistics Canada, custom tabulation; Census 2001
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Labour Demand: Top Three Occupations within region
CCS 10A-Pinware
River
Sales and Service
(21.2%)
Primary (19.8%)
Trades, Transport
and Equipment
Operators (19.8%)
CCS 10B- Labrador
East Coast
Primary
Occupations
(25.9%)
Sales and Service
(19%)
Processing and
Manufacturing
(19%)
CCS 10C- Goose
Bay Area
CCS 10D- Labrador
West
CCS 10E- Labrador
North
Sales and Service
(28.6%)
Trades, Transport
and Equipment
Operators (28.4%)
Sales and Service
(29.7%)
Trades, Transport
and Equipment
Operators (17.7%)
Sales and Service
(23.8%)
Trades, Transport
and Equipment
Operators (16.3%)
Office and Related
(16.5%)
Office and Related
(11.0%)
All Other
Occupations
(16.0%)
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Labour Demand: Top Five Occupations for Growth 1995-2000
Labrador Region:
Province:
Numbers of Workers
Numbers of Workers
• Fishers
• Other - Management
• Other - Management
• Clerical occupations
• Other - Health
• Other - Primary
• Fish processing workers
• Other - Processing and manufacturing
• Other - Office and related
• Fishers
Rate of Growth
• Other - Management
• Other - Primary
• Fishers
• Other - Processing and
manufacturing
• Other - Office and related
Rate of Growth
• Other - Office and related
• Fishers
• Other – Health (not nurrses)
• Fish processing workers
• Other - Management
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Labour Demand: Vacancies
•51% of firms in 2004
employed 1 to 4
employees, 29%
employed 5 to 19
workers (Province: 60%
and 35% respectively
•Labrador has 5.2% of
all businesses in
province, similar to
population distribution
Distribution of Firms With Reported Vacancies
Vacant positions
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
NL
RSR1
RSR2
RSR3
RSR4
RSR5
RSR6
RSR7
RSR8
RSR9
Note: To date, 5087 firms (mainly small, employing 10 or less employees) have been interviewed for the Wage Rate Survey.
Source: Newfoundland and Labrador Wage Rate Survey, Special Tabulations by Bristol Group. Results are preliminary.
26
Hard-to-Fill Positions
Hard to Fill Vacancies by Occupation, NL
Business, Finance
and Administration
Health
9%
6%
Trades, Transport
and Equipment
Operators and
Related
21%
Sales and Service
38%
Social Science,
Education,
Government
Service and
Religion
Processing,
6%
Manufacturing and
Utilities
5%
Natural and
Applied Sciences
and Related
Art, Culture,
3%
Recreation and
Management
6%
Sport; Primary
Industry Combined
6%
•Hard-to-fill positions or shortages cited by workshop participants in
Labrador included: mining occupations, teachers, social workers, nurses,
sales and services staff, and workers with generic skills/soft skills
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Thank You and For Further Information:
Pamela Toope
Director, Labour Market Development Division
Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment
3rd Floor, Confederation Building, West Block
P.O. Box 8700
St. John’s, NL A1B 4J6
Phone: (709) 729-5184 or (709) 729-6516
Fax: (709) 729-5560
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.labourmarketnetwork.nl.ca
(Summer 2006)
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