Transcript COP10 of the UNFCCC_ Argentina Side event on the

Sudan And
Climate Change
2/9/2008
Geneva
Ismail Elgizouli ,Fredrich Ebert
Foundation ,Sudan
sm
•Introduction:
•Sudan is located in the northeastern side of
Africa and its area is about 2.5 million square
kilometers
•The population in the range 35-40 million
•The country is entirely depends on agriculture
(rain-fed and irrigated farming).
• A vulnerable country in the context of climate
change – witnessed cycles of drought and
floods
Constitutions of the Republic
of Sudan 2005
With respect to the protection of the environment chapter 2 article
11 of the Interim National Constitutions of the Republic of the
Sudan States:
i. The people of the Sudan shall have the right to clean and
diverse environment; the State and the citizen have the duty
to preserve and promote the country’s Biodiversity.
ii. The State shall not purse any policy, or permit any action
which may adversely affect the existence of any species of
animal or vegetative life, their natural or adopted habitat.
iii. The State shall promote, through legislation, sustainable
utilization of natural resources and best practices with
respect to their management
•Climate of Sudan
The climate zones as shown in fig.:
• vary from desert type in the north to semi desert
in in north central parts of the country
•In the central parts semi-arid through arid to dry
sub-humid
•Humid in the south
SUDAN CLIMATE ZONES FOR THE PERIOD 1971-2000
HAL
WHF
22.00
20.00
ARB
PSD
ABH
DNG
DESERT
KRM
TKR
AQQ
18.00
ATB
HDB
SHN
16.00
SHM
KHA
HLG
HAS
WMD
SEMI-DESERT
14.00
SHW
GDF
DUM
BAR
FSH
GEN
SNR
OBD
KHW
KST
UMB
ABN
NHD
NYL
DRY
12.00
ARM
KSL
RSH
DMZ
RNK
BNS
KDG
KUR
SEMI-DRY
10.00
MLK
RAG
8.00
NSR
SUB-HUMID
WAU
PIB
6.00
HUMIDMAR
JUB
KAP
TOR
YAM
NAG
8.00
4.00
22.00
24.00
26.00
28.00
30.00
32.00
34.00
36.00
38.00
Climate change impacts can now be
estimated more systematically and for a
greater range of sectors and regions
Dust-storm
Floods and
droughts
Climate Change in Sudan
Vulnerability & Adaptation – Rationale in Sudan:
• There is an ample evidence that climate has
reported a clear change in the climate during the last
three decades of the twentieth century.
•Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of
climate change:
• The majority of its land is quite sensitive to changes
in temperature and precipitation
• Fragile ecosystem
• Weak infrastructure and economy
• Food security is mainly determined by rainfall
• More than 70% of Sudan population is directly
dependent on climate-sensitive resources for their
livelihood.
Sectors Affected by Global Warming:
• Water Sector (resources and suppliers)
• Agriculture and Natural Resources
• Biodiversity
• Health Sector (vector and epidemic diseases)
• Industrial Economy
• Political Geography (conflicts due to limitation in
natural resources)
• Affects the future of the new generation.
Impacts of Global Warming on Water Resources
Sector:
• Rising in temperature will increase the rate of
evaporation which is loss of water for utilization.
• Global warming will lead to climate change and
hence accelerates the frequency of occurrence of the
extreme climate events (drought/floods) tropical
cyclones- dust-storms that cause the natural disasters.
• Decline in hydroelectric power
Climate change projections in milestone year 2030
in Sudan (Kordofan Region):
• From the report of the first national communication
of Sudan in climate change issue some results had
been achieved in Greater Kordofan State as follows:
• The projected temperature in 2030 varies between
0.5 to 1˚C while globally it is 0.6 ˚C. The area
chosen considered as one of the most vulnerable
areas and located in the heart of Sudan
Water resources:
• Reduced groundwater recharge – either through
decreased precipitation or increased temperature and
evaporation – has grave repercussions for Sudan.
• National studies have shown that soil moisture would
decline under future climate change.
•When coupled with increased water consumption,
population growth, high variation in rainfall and the
high rate of evaporation, a looming water crisis
appears likely
Agriculture:
• Combined with growing socioeconomic pressures, the
imposition of climate variability and climate change is likely
to intensify the ongoing process of desertification of arable
areas.
• Humid agro climatic zones will shift southward, rendering
areas of the North increasingly unsuitable for agriculture.
Crop production is predicted to decline substantially for both
millet and sorghum (see figure below ).
• The area of arable land as well as the important Gum
Arabic belt would likely also decrease, with attendant
impacts on both local incomes and food security would drop;
Projected agricultural yields in Sudan with climate change
Source: based on results of Sudan’s First National Communication
under the UNFCCC, 2003
Yield (kg/hectare)
500
sorghum
millet
400
300
200
100
0
1961-90
2060
• Although, some parts in the region reflected a rise in
precipitation, but the average annual rate of evapotranspiration, shows a jump from 2773 to 3110 mms which
is almost close to 12%. Due to rise in temp.(1-3˚ C)
• The population is projected to increase and this will be
accompanied by increase in water consumption.
•The yield in the main cereals is expected to decline between
13 to 82% for sorghum and 20 to 76% for millet from
south to north of the region
• The humid zones will shift southwards.
• To conclude that, this assessment study generally reflects the
situation in Sudan in the context of climate change. There is a
question arises what will happen to the climate zones?
Public health:
• Communities in Sudan would be exposed to
significantly increased risk of malaria under climate
change.
• Studies in Kordofan State, for example, have shown
that the risk of transmission potential could increase
substantially by 2060 (see figure below ).
• If realized, not only would the overburdened health
care system experience extreme stress but the disease
would exact a heavy toll on local communities
Malaria transmission relative to baseline in Sudan, 2060
Source: Sudan’s First National Communication under the UNFCCC,
2003
Socioeconomic impacts





Climate change leads to drought which implies to
Limitation in natural resources… ..conflicts
Food security collapse……famine… displaced
people; refugees… .misuse of natural
resources
Floods… .imply to migration of people from rural
and remote areas to the cities which causes stress
on service infrastructure …spoil stability and
security conditions
ٍSpreading of epidemic and vector diseases
…
production declines consequently affects the GDP.
: Climate Change Socioeconomic Impacts
HAL
WHF
22.00
20.00
ARB
PSD
ABH
DNG
DESERT
KRM
TKR
AQQ
18.00
ATB
HDB
SHN
16.00
SHM
KHA
HLG
HAS
WMD
SEMI-DESERT
14.00
SHW
GDF
DUM
GEN
``
BAR
FSH
KHW
SNR
OBD
KST
UMB
ABN
NHD
NYL
RSH
DRY
12.00
DMZ
RNK
BNS
KDG
KUR
SEMI-DRY
10.00
MLK
RAG
8.00
NSR
SUB-HUMID
WAU
PIB
6.00
HUMID
MAR
JUB
4.00
KAP
TOR
YAM
8.00
NAG
ARM
KSL
Drought
Conflicts in Darfur
Conflicts
Acutely vulnerable areas in Sudan
Dar Fur and C.C
In recent years, increasing drought
cycles and the Sahara's southward
expansion have created conflicts
between nomadic and sedentary groups
over shortages of water and land.
Dar Fur and C.C

The combination of decades of drought,
desertification, and overpopulation are
among the causes of the Darfur conflict,
because the nomads searching for water
have to take their livestock further south, to
land mainly occupied by farming
communities
What did they say about Dar
Fur and C. C
ٍ"The blunt truth is that the lack of water
and agricultural land is a significant
contributory factor to the tragic conflict we
see unfolding in Dar Fur. We should see
this as a warning sign."
The British Home Secretary Jhon Reid
,March 2006
“Chalking the Dar Fur conflict up to
climate change alone would be an
oversimplification “
Eric Reeves ,Smith College
Michael Klare, a global security specialist
at Hampshire College and author of the
book Resource Wars—argue that Darfur
is part of an emerging pattern of resource
conflict: "I don't think you can separate
climate change from population growth,
rising consumption patterns and
globalization... It's really one
phenomenon
April 18, 2008 (PARIS) — French
President Nicolas Sarkozy told the
world’s biggest carbon polluters Friday
that global warming was becoming a
driver of hunger, unrest and conflict,
with the war in Dar Fur a concrete
example
"In Darfur, we see this explosive
mixture from the impact of climate
change, which prompts emigration by
increasingly impoverished people,
which then has consequences in
war," French President Sarkozy
END
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