Transcript Presentation Title - Information Today, Inc.

What do Gartner’s 2005 Predictions
Mean for Libraries
Stephen Abram
VP, Innovation
Sirsi Corporation
March 17, 2004
Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.
These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval.
Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected].
Gartner Group


Gartner Predicts research initiative in 2005
spanned more than two dozen technology and
vertical industry focus areas. All told, more than
140 analysts proposed and collaborated on
approximately 150 predictions that will affect IT
users, vendors and most industries in 2005 and
beyond.
Space limitations prevent highlighting all focus
areas — let alone all the predictions — today. I
will pull out selected predictions that demand
your attention and action.


View technologies and innovations as related to
future of library services.
Connecting, Collaboration, Community
News Service March 29, 2004
U.S. President George W. Bush called for universal and
affordable access to broadband Internet service by 2007,
saying that the technology would speed the flow of
information and spark innovation.
Next Massive Wave of Innovation and
Demand for IT Will Start in 2006/7
Transition to
Real-Time Service-oriented
architecture
InfraLow-Power- structure
Consumption
Mobile/Display
Devices
Secure
Broadband
Wireless
2006/7
Emerging
Trends & Technologies
Hardware Innovations in the Next Decade

A bridge for the physical and electronic worlds, multipurpose
technology
Accelerometers, sensors, micro actuators

Smart Pills, Nano, Quantum, Optical, Molecular

MEMS

Tagging physical objects with electronic information

Supply chain automation

Product information discovery
Trusted Computing
RFID

Physically and logically separate processing space
for trusted applications

Ubiquitous billing infrastructure — µ-payments

Easy-to-use DRM, new business models

Key Issue: Can it be implemented right?
Mobile and Wireless in the Next Decade
Personal Area
Networks
Innovation in personal device format and user interaction
 Lots of Functions: Phone, Calendar, Internet, MP3 Player,
Camera, Video, House/Car Key, Payment, Authentication,
Biometrics, Life Saving, Stun Gunning, Insect Repelling
 Shared Hub: I/O, Security, Battery, Storage, Call Center
 PAN: for user interaction

A mix of technologies, including Zigbee, UWB, Bluetooth,
Wi-Fi x.y, 2.5/3/4G, will allow best economical mix:
reliability, costs, size, bandwidth, reach
Mesh

Sensor Networks, Smart Dust

Self-Organizing Principles: Plug-and-Play
Mobile Commerce
Networks

Devices + Reliable Networks + Business Models + Content

Context- and Location-Based Services

Hybrid offerings blending traditional and mobile commerce
Computer Human Interaction
in the Next Decade

Biometrics, Speech, Handwriting, Eye Position

Gait Analysis, Infrared

Emotion/Lie Detection
Human  Computer

OLED/OLEP, E-Ink

Head-Mounted Displays

Speech Synthesis

Avatars, Synthetic Characters
Logic
Computer  Human

Natural Language Search

Taxonomies/Browsing

Personalization

Machine Translation
Data Analytics in the Next Decade
Trends


Hardware revolution continues to drive the data explosion

Analysis and action gaps widen – skills shortage

Data mining remains niche; most pockets of opportunities
are still within business intelligence

Data mining shifts to intermediaries (Wal-Mart, eBay)
Embedded Data Mining
Advanced
Functionality




Visualization, neural nets, genetic algorithms,
machine learning
Text and information extraction
Audio and video mining
Exploiting networks and communities
(Google, Amazon)
System Development and Management
in the Next Decade
Development
XQuery
Aspect-Oriented
Programming
XML
Business Rules Engines
Long fuse
Service-Oriented Software
Extreme Programming
Int. Web Services
Integration
Management
and
Sourcing
Heavy Ontologies
Agent-Based Integration
Identity Management
BAM
Complex Event Processing
Portals
Service-oriented Business Applications
Composite Applications
Application Platform Suites
Business Process Fusion
ASPs Grid Computing
Real-time Infrastructure
More Modularity
Less Monolithic
More Agility
More Complexity
Outsourcing
“Virtual Enterprise”
Bottom Line:
• Standards matter!
• Modularity implies more flexibility — but also more complexity.
Connected Society
Strategic Planning Assumption:
By 2010, 70% of the population in
developed nations will spend 10
times longer per day interacting
with people in the electronic world
than in the physical one (0.6
probability).
Connected Society
Wearables
Wireless
Identity and Profiles
Ad Hoc Communities
Privacy, Preference
and Discrimination
WiFi
Smart
Phones
Ultrawideband
Location-Based
Services
Collaboration:
I, borg
Augmented
Reality
Healthcare
as a Utility
Connected Objects and Places
On-chip wireless/RFID
On-chip sensors/MEMS
Low-power CPUs
Low-power
displays
Smart spaces
Smarter people
What should
objects know?
Location, owner,
safety ...
Products as services
Ad hoc networking/
mesh networks
Smart dust
Personalized retail
Disposable computers
Connected Enterprises
Real-time Infrastructure
Enterprise as Ecosystem
Service-Oriented
Everything
Business Process Fusion
Voice/Data
Convergence
Communications-Enabled
Business Processes
Offshore
Outsourcing
Measuring Knowledge Work
Compliance and
Data Visibility
Shifting Job Roles
Semantic Standards
Exploiting Network Effects:
Innocentive
Top 10 Technologies To Watch
Bluetooth
MEMS
Real-time DW
Grid
Linux
WLANs
Smartphones
CRM
Portals
iSCSI SANs
IP Telephony
BAM
Instant Messaging SCM
Opteron
Nanocomputing
LEP
UWB
Software as Services
Zibgee
Real-Time Infrastructure
Mobile applications
Natural Language Search
Micro fuel cells
Tablet PCs
MMS
Speech recognition 802.11g
Trusted Platforms
Utility computing OLED
Mesh networks
Camera Phones
e-ink
IT self-service
Network Security Convergence
Smart dust
Semantic Web
RFID Tags
4G wireless
Taxonomies
Location aware services
Ontologies
Unified communications
Metadata management
Maturing within 36 months
Network security
convergence
IP telephony
Software as services
Instant messaging
Established, wider usability
Utility computing
WLANs
Partial value next three years
RFID tags
Grid
Taxonomies
Real-Time Infrastructure
Real-Time Enterprise
A real-time enterprise (RTE):
 Monitors, captures and analyzes
root cause and overt events that
are critical to the success of the
enterprise
 Does it the moment those events
occur
 Exploits that real-time information to
progressively remove delays in
managing and executing critical
detection, reporting, decisionmaking and response business
processes
Connected Society
Strategic Planning Assumption:
By 2005, 60 percent of interpersonal
data messaging done by consumer
and enterprise users via mobile and
fixed devices will be instant (real-time)
by exploiting location and other
presence indicators (0.7 probability).
Wider Deployment of WLAN for Enterprises

Wireless Encryption Protocol is broken,
but better than nothing

Wi-Fi Protected Access (WPA) protocol
brings WLAN to business-level security,
but needs to move to at next refresh cycle
of the protocol

Still need to worry about end-point security

Don’t forget about public hot spots
Software Treated as Services
Service-Oriented • Interface Separation
Development of • Wrapping
(Reflection)
Develop Applications
• Description
(SODA)
• Dynamism
Interoperability Is
Cheaper Than
Integration
OOP
Deploy
ServiceOriented
Architecture
(SOA)
• Contracts
• Messages
• Repository
• Servers
Composite Applications
“Real-Time” (JIT) Integration
Web Services Readiness
Scope of
Deployment
Scope of Web
Services (WS)
Open-sourced
WS-UDDI
Directories
Shared WS
for trusted
supply chains;
narrow partner
groupings
Full
Internet
Crossindustry
Extended
enterprise
Proprietary
WS for internal
integration
Crossenterprise
Individual
department
One
CIO
depart- office
ment.
Industry
consortia
(public)
International/
U.S. standards
bodies
Scope of
Standards
Connected Society
Strategic Planning Assumption:
By 2012, radio frequency identification
(RFID) and similar wireless chips will
evolve from a supply-chain technology
into an enabler of value-added
consumer applications, such as item
location and status reporting (0.6
probability).
Presence Detection
Collaboration
Remote
Site
Management
Collaboration
Services
Consistent Security
User Authentication
Extending Telephone Features
Presence Detection
Bridge Services
Scheduling Tools
Device
Interoperability
Centralized Administration
Centralized Management
CRM
PC/Telephone/Video connectivity
Call
Center
Tools
Agent Availability
Caller Information
Presence Detection
IP Telephony Provides the ‘Killer
Environment’
Mobility
IP telephony crosses organizational units and technologies
PDA’s and
Mobile Technology
How Will Wireless LANs and 3G
Interoperate?
Office Area
Cafeteria
Meeting Area
DSL
Cable
WLL
In the Home
Enterprise Campus
Coverage Area
<150 feet
< 20 computers
Expect 2 Mbps to
8 Mbps through YE04
Public Hot Spots
(hotels, airports, retail centers)
Handsets in 2004
Focused on application/end-user segment alignment
 Packet data (CDMA 1x, GPRS, W-CDMA)
 Full-color screen across product portfolio
 Increased memory and storage (separate/integrated
application processors)
 Application-layer interface (BREW, Java)
 Messaging interface (SMS, MMS, EMS?)
 Product portfolio “must haves”
– Bluetooth
– Camera
– MIDI sounds and ringers
– WAP 2.0

The Smartphone Emerges
Symbian
+ Mainstream mfg.
- Enterprise software
PalmOS
Windows CE
+ First to market
+ Enterprise software
- Back-end systems
- Mainstream mfg.
OS Competition Intensifies
Less
Device Diversity
More
E-Learning
Connected Society
Strategic Imperative:
For higher-education institutions to
remain competitive, academic
decision makers must build the case
for real-time integration based on the
learner’s needs and expectations
The Case for Integration: The Learner
Benefits
Internal and External Content
 Search and Discovery
 Content Management
 License Management
 Rights Management
 Linking
Authentication
Single Sign-On
Security/Privacy
24x7 Help
Personal Administrative
Management (ERP)
Personal Academic
Management (CMS)
Communication
and Collaboration
Connected Society
Strategic Planning Assumption:
By 2005, at least 60 percent of new
higher-education IT spending will go
toward acquiring and supporting
academic technologies, including elearning, content management and
library management systems (0.7
probability).
Beyond Course Management
Conferencing/Collab.
A
U
T
H
O
R
I
N
G
M
E
T
A
D
A
T
A
T
O
O
L
S
Portal
SIS
Course Management
Tool
Tool
Tool
Academic
Analytics
Learning Content
Management
Library
Management
Institutional
Content
Repositories
External
Content
Repositories
Batch and Real-Time Integration of CMS
With Major Systems
SIS
HR/Payroll
Batch
Real Time
Financials
Library MS
0
20
40
60
80
Percentage of Respondents
100
Connected Society
Tactical Guideline: Higher-education
institutional decisions concerning
library management systems, campus
portals and CMS should not be made
in isolation from each other.
Library Management Systems as Learning
Content Management
Millennium
Voyager
Aleph
Unicorn
Horizon
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Number of ARL Member Libraries
Source: ARL 2003
40
Institutional Motivation for E-Learning
Enhanced Customer Service
Student Demand
Pedagogical Advantage
Marketing Opportunities
Generate Revenues
Collaboration
Recruiting Competition
Construction Cost Savings
Government Mandate
Reduce Staff Head Count
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Percentage of respondents rating motivation as very important or
extremely important.
100
Importance of Technologies for E-Learning
Infrastructure in Next Three Years: Top 10
Broadband Networking
Security Technologies
Learning Content Mgmt.
Next-Gen. CMS
Enterprise Portal
2002
2003
Video Streaming
Video Over IP
Digital Rights Mgmt.
Wireless Networking
Learner Portfolios
0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Percentage of respondents rating technology as very important or
extremely important.
The Two Big E-Learning Challenges
Technical Infrastructure
(The TV)
Quality Content
(The TV Show)
Necessary Software
Optimized Network
Interesting, Fun,
Interactive, Motivating
Good content and infrastructure are both needed
to be successful with e-learning.
E-Learning Deployments Increase
IT
Spending
Increase
in 2004
28%
E-Learning
Software
Spending
Increase
in 2004
7.6%
Old Focus
Departmental LMS
Best-of-Breed Applications
Off-the-Shelf
New Focus
Enterprise LMS
E-Learning Suites
Increased Focus on
Custom Content
Open Source
Status: Critical Building Blocks of IT
Infrastructure Proven
Client Devices
Internet
Access
Line of
Business
Infrastructure
Server/Blade
Proxy
• Caching
• VPN
• Firewall
• WAP
• VoIP
Gateway
•
Desktops
Business
Application
Server
Directory
• Security
• Load balance
• File/print
• Web
• E-mail
• NAS
•
Network Edge
Servers
ERP
• SCM
• CRM
• HR
Enterprise
Data
Data/Content
Server/
Warehouse
•
Databases
• Consolidation
on zSeries
•
Compute Clusters
Financial, R&D, biotech,
geophysical, energy, visualize
Where Linux is Used: Now and in 12 Months
Web servers
File/print servers
No
Email/messaging
E-learning apps
Admin apps
Library apps
None
0%
10%
Table 24
Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=105)
20%
Now
30%
40%
50%
+12 months
60%
70%
Open Source Software Usage: Infrastructure
Web and
network
Programming
languages
No
Databases
Web content
mgmt
+53%
Portal
0%
10%
20%
Now
Table 25
Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=98)
30%
40%
+24 months
50%
60%
Open Source Software Usage: Applications &
Collaboration
+100%
E-Learning
platform
Office
productivity
No
Collab/groupware
Library apps
No OSS
0%
10%
Now
Table 25
Base: CIO respondents answering question (n=98)
20%
+24 months
30%
40%
Library Open Source Interest is Growing

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


Small library LMS (GreenStone, OpenBiblio,
Linux School Library)
Digital Repository Management System (The
Fedora™ Project)
Library Database development and search
applications
Library Web front ends and portals (ASU
library)
Digital collections and Audio collections
Professional Library Associations (LITA,
ALA, ARL, BLA)
Major LMS vendor’s are showing interested
in OSS (VTLS Inc. & Fedora Project)
OSS4Lib - open source projects for libraries
Knowledge Management
Technologies
Knowledge Workplace
Shared Ideas
Shared Creation
E-Mail
Workflow
Content Mgmt.
Discussion
Databases
Web
Conferencing
Intranets
Collaborative
Design
Portals
Shared Presence
Instant Messaging
Videoconferencing
Networked
Virtual Worlds
Avatars
The Future of KM Is Personal
Personal Knowledge Network Characteristics

Tacit, intellectual capital
is held by the individual
knowledge worker

Instantaneous access
to knowledge enhances
the productivity of the
individual knowledge worker

Collaborative connections
and networks build value
for the enterprise
A New Infrastructure Stack Emerges
Line-of-Business
Applications
Portal
Integration
Suite
Application
Server
OS and DBMS
Old View
New View
Content Management Hype Cycle
Visibility
Key: Time to Plateau
WCM Outsourcing
Virtual Content Repositories
Personal Web Publishing
Content Aggregation and Syndication
Taxonomies
Content Integration
Globalization, Localization
JSR 170
E-Forms
WSRP and JSR 168
Records Management
XML-Based
Multichannel Output
and Interaction
Smart
Enterprise
Information
Suites
Retrieval/Search
Content-Process
Fusion
Enterprise Digital
Rights Management
Web Services
for CM
Less than two years
Two to five years
Five to 10 years
Streaming
Media
Digital Asset Management
XML Database Management Systems
Consumer Digital Rights Management
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Document
Imaging
WCM
Information Extraction
Technology
Trigger
Document
Management
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
COLD, IDARS,
DOM
As of June 2003
Plateau of
Productivity
Maturity
Acronym Key
IDARS integrated document archive and retrieval system
CM
content management
JSR
Java Specification Request
COLD computer output to laserdisc
WCM
Web content management
DOM
WSRP Web Services for Remote Portals
distributed output management
Content/Process Fusion Delivers
Content/process fusion is the evolving combination of content
and process technologies based on XML. There are three key
areas where this is beginning to be realized:
1. Collaboration and Transformation
– Engaging people and forms as part of a process
2. Vertical Process Automation
– C/PF targeted at reusable industry applications
3. Content Integration
– Built on XML and Web services
Some 2005 Predictions
Q&A
Continue Discussion
Sirsi: Building For The Future
Stephen Abram
VP, Innovation
Sirsi Corporation
[email protected]
March 17, 2004
Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.
These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval.
Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected].