Transcript The Evolution of the Net: Predicting Network Infrastructure

The Evolution of the Net:
Predicting Network Infrastructure
Bruce R. Schatz
Graduate School of Library and Information Science
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (USA)
Graduate School of Informatics
Kyoto University (August 2001 – July 2002)
[email protected], www.canis.uiuc.edu
GSLIS Proseminar
February 24, 2003
The Future of Infrastructure
Niels Bohr on Quantum Theory
“Prediction is very Difficult,
especially about the Future”
What is Infrastructure?
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Infra means Inside
Structure means Support
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Infrastructure is:
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Essential Services for Everyday Life
Universal Protocols to Help Users
Infrastructure Evolves to Deeper Levels
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New Technologies become Generic Enough
Outline of Talk
The Evolution of Infrastructure
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The Waves of the Net
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Amateurs become Experts via Technology
Data
Information
Knowledge
The Laws of the Net
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The Basic Units of Evolution
Evolution of Infrastructure
Everyone becomes
An Expert with
Interactive Support
The Structures of Everyday Life
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Bodies
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(physical interactions)
Rails (trains) and Roads (cars)
Communication
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(groups)
Houses and Cities
Transportation
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Food and Clothes
Buildings
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(individuals)
(logical interactions)
Phones (talking) and Computers (retrieving)
How Infrastructure Scales
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Experts are Effective but Expensive
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Volume forces Provider Pyramid
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Initially:
All things done by Experts
Eventually: Most things done by Amateurs
A few experts at the top
A lot of amateurs at the bottom
Infrastructure supports Ordinary People
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Everyone becomes a little bit of an Expert
Most interactions done by amateurs
Example: Talking
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Transmission of Messages
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The Telegraph of the 19th Century
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Generated by a person and Sent to another
Network connects Operators to Operators
Station to Station, trained professionals
Operator transmits coded message
The Telephone of the 20th Century
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Person to Person, untrained amateurs
Person speaks in ordinary words
Infrastructure transmits coded message
Example: Retrieving
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Search of Archives
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Bibliographic Search of the 20th Century
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Generated by many and Retrieved by many
Network connects Archives to Users
Station to Station, trained professionals
Librarian queries central archives
Web Search of the 21st Century
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Person to Person, untrained amateurs
Person types in ordinary words
Infrastructure queries central archives
Provider Pyramids Emerge
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Telephone Network was Station-Station
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Volume forced Network to Person-Person
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Person talked to Telephone Operator
E.g. “get me a doctor!”
Operator did manual switching to Person
In 1900, everyone must become an operator
In 2000, everyone is an operator!
Amateurs use directories then dial numbers
Infrastructure supports Everyday Activity
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Automatic switching scales to volume
The Evolution of Infrastructure
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Experts handle Everyday Structures
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Increased Volume forces Provider Pyramid
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Provide services that become essential
Amateurs handle most Interactions
Infrastructure supports Amateurs
Free Labor at Acceptable Quality
Evolution proceeds by Copying Experts
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New Services approximate Experts
Infrastructure adopts new Protocols
Generic Technologies that always work
The Waves of the Net
Network Infrastructure
Evolves from Data to
Information to Knowledge
What is the Net?
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The Net connects Everyone to Everything
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The Functionality of the Net Evolves
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Global Network Infrastructure
Universal Protocols to support Interactions
Data to Information to Knowledge
Deeper Levels with Stronger Technologies
At Any Level, the User only sees Outside
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Infrastructure is Inside, thus Invisible
The Web is just the Present not the Future
Someday, the Net will be true Cyberspace
Waves of the Net - Levels
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Data – The Past
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Information – The Present
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Retrieval across Spaces (Logical)
Reference Librarians & Federated Repositories
Knowledge – The Future
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Transmission across Networks (Physical)
Telephone Operators & Switching Gateways
Analysis across Models (Reality)
Doctors & Categories
Wisdom – The Goal
Waves of the Net - Services
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Data – The Past
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Information – The Present
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File Transfer
Basic Unit is Bits within Packets
Concept Navigation
Basic Unit is Words within Documents
Knowledge – The Future
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Structure Correlation
Basic Unit is Features within Vectors
Waves of the Net -- Protocols
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Data – The Internet
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Information – The Interspace
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Packet Subwave: TCP/IP (Transmission)
File Subwave: FTP (File Transfer Protocol)
Document Subwave: HTTP/HTML (Search)
Concept Subwave: CSP (Concept Switching)
Knowledge – The Intermodel
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Vector Subwave: VTP/VCPL (Cluster Pattern)
Structure Subwave: SMP (Structure Matching)
Transmitting Data
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Telephone Network of the 19th Century
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Wave 0, Multiplexed Telegraph
Digital Bits
basic Syntax for Transmission
Packets are the paradigm
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Packets are grouped Bits
Address and Routing for Packets
Bits interpreted only by local computers
The Internet
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First Universal Physical Wave
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Wave 1, Protocols across Networks
Universal across packet networks (IP)
Files from computer to computer
Distributed File Systems
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Files cluster Bits within Computers
Assemble Files from Bits using Packets (TCP)
Transmit Files across Computers (FTP)
Searching Information
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WorldWide Web of the 20th Century
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Wave 2, Hyperlink Transmission (HTTP)
Digital Words
basic Semantics for Search
Documents are the paradigm
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Documents are grouped Words (HTML)
Classification and Indexing for Documents
Words interpreted only by local repositories
The Interspace
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First Universal Logical Wave
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Wave 3, Protocols across Spaces
Universal across document spaces
Concepts from repository to repository
Distributed Concept Systems
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Concepts cluster Words within Repositories
Assemble Concepts from Words using Documents
Search Concepts across Repositories
Universal Information Units
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Basic Concepts of Natural Language
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Fundamental Grouping needed for Semantics
Specialized to specific Community Collections
Essential Technologies all Converging
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Document Representation (XML, RDF)
Language Parsing (multiword noun phrases)
Statistical Indexing (contextual frequencies)
Peer-Peer Networking (local computations)
Concept Switching (vocabulary translations)
Same Process, Deeper Level
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The Interspace, using Libraries
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Subject thesaurus,
yields Concept space
Subject classification, yields Concept map
From words to concepts
From networks to spaces
The Intermodel, using Lifestyles
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Reality problem, yields Structure model
Reality solution, yields Structure cluster
From features to structures
From spaces to models
Analyzing Knowledge
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Lifestyle Grid of the 21st Century
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Wave 4, Full-spectrum Questionnaires
Digital Features
basic Pragmatics for Analysis
Vectors are the paradigm
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Vectors are grouped Features
Comparison and Clustering for Vectors
Features interpreted only by local situations
Healthcare Infrastructure
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Monitors for each Individual
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Capture everyday lifestyle status
Customized questionnaires for healthcare
Build detailed database of health vectors
Managers for each Individual
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Daily Feature Record for each Individual
Detailed Databases for whole Population
Analyze Clusters of Similar Individuals
The Intermodel
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First Universal Representational Wave
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Wave 5, Protocols across Models
Universal across vector models
Features from individual to individual
Distributed Structure Systems
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Structures cluster Features within Individuals
Assemble Structures from Features using Vectors
Analyze Structures across Individuals
Universal Knowledge Units
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Basic Structures of Everyday Life
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World Categories needed for Pragmatics
Similar Structures from Many Subjects
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Medicine, categories of health status
Computing, TCOL versus UNCOL
Anthropology, cross-cultural universals
Psychology, basic natural categories
Architecture, design patterns for comfort life
History, structures of everyday life
Realizing Wisdom
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Zen Buddhism
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The Ocean including all Waves
Direct Interaction with Reality
Beyond Words and Concepts
Zen Koans
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Curriculum process of realization exercises
Become “one with the koan”, achieve Satori
Richi -- Reality Challenge, e.g. “Mu”
Kikan – Reality Interaction, e.g. “Oak Tree”
The Intermind
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First Universal Spiritual Wave
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Wave N, Protocols across Minds
Universal across Mind Realities
Hive Mind on the Net, There is no Self!
Religions to model Lifestyles
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richi (koan) for monitor (health)
kikan (koan) for manager (health)
Mimic basic structures not details
Interactive navigation through automated
clusters not automated decision-making
Metaphors across Waves
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Capturing Operators yields Internet
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Capturing Librarians yields Interspace
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Capturing Doctors
yields Intermodel
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Capturing Roshi-s
yields Intermind
The Laws of the Net
Predicting Units of
Network Infrastructure
for Deeper Evolution
Philosophy of Informatics
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Physics in the 20th Century
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Newtonian Mechanics is Western philosophy
Deterministic Laws predict all motion
Quantum Mechanics is Eastern philosophy
Probabilistic Computations are uncertain
Informatics in the 21st Century
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Database Retrieval is Western philosophy
Deterministic Rules match correct results
Information Retrieval is Eastern philosophy
Statistical Clusters suggest useful results
Laws of Motion
Isaac Newton, 1687, Principia Mathematica
I. Every body continues in its state of rest, or of
uniform motion in a right [straight] line, unless it is
compelled to change that state by forces impressed
upon it.
II. The change of motion is proportional to the
motive force impressed; and is made in the direction
of the right line in which that force is impressed.
III. To every action there is always opposed an
equal reaction; or, the mutual actions of two bodies
upon each other are always equal, and directed to
contrary parts.
Laws of Infrastructure
Bruce Schatz, 2004, The Evolution of the Net
I. Every infrastructure undergoes a characteristic
evolution, from station-station to person-person,
from trained experts to untrained amateurs, to
handle the volume of a universal service.
II. Most of the volume of a universal service is
handled by the users themselves, with
infrastructure support provided by modeling an
appropriate expert.
III. Each new basic structure models a new expert
in terms of previous structures, and each successful
evolution brings the structures closer to
approximating reality.
Levels of Abstraction
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Deeper Levels drive Later Waves
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Each Level built upon the Previous Level
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Each Wave has a fundamental level
Deeper composed from Shallower
units level N-2 ordered by (ob) units level N-1
Context of N-2 within N-1 yields N
Laws predict Future Units
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Information Space, Knowledge Model
Units of Abstraction
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Metaphors
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Situations
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documents ob concepts
Concepts
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concepts ob categories
Categories
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categories ob structures
Structures
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structures ob situations
terms ob documents
Documents
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words ob terms
The Science of Informatics
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New Units from Old Units
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New Waves from Old Waves
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Predict Future Units from Current Units
Predict Future Protocols from Current
Same Processes, New Technologies
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Context as Meaning, Statistics as Truth
Deeper Levels are Closer to Reality