Transcript Technology

Wireless Futures:
Chaos and Opportunity
David E. Benson
Michael Gold
Alex Ledin
December 2004
More wireless technologies than ever…
MAN/WAN
LAN
W-CDMA
802.11
3.5G
4G
HSDPA
Short Range
802.11a/b/g
…
hiperLAN
Bluetooth
EDR Bluetooth
Multihop, Mesh, and P2P Radio
CDMA2000
Ultra Wide Band
MobileFi
802.20
TD-SCDMA
WiMax
802.11n
Voice over Internet Protocol
hiperMAN
WiBro
Two-Way
Satellite
“TinyLAN”
Wireless USB
and
FireWireless
Unlicensed Spectrum
DSRC
Airborne
Platforms
Terrestrial
Datacasting
Software Defined/Cognitive Radio
802.11
p
Smart Antennae
Machine to Machine
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
RFI
D
NFC
ZigBee
2
…has made decision making much more difficult.
Wild
Card
Wi-Fi
Emerging Conventional Hype or
Alternative Wisdom
Reality?
Wi-Max
ZigBee
3G
NFC
UWB?
Unexpected
Obsolescence?
Bluetooth
4G?
Research and
Experimentation
Mobile Payment
to Vending Machines
TV for Mobile
Handsets?
Fads?
Technology
Roadmap
Business
Roadmap
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Understanding the wireless
marketplace
D
O
B
Demand
OPPORTUNITIES
Business
Environmen
t
Technology
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
4
T
Small Companies Drive
Innovation
D
O
B
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Aeris.net
•
Mesh Networks
•
Airspan Networks
•
Navini
•
Alvarion
•
NextNet Wireless
•
Aperto Networks
•
Numerex
•
Arraycom
•
Opto22
•
Atheros Communications
•
Orthogon Systems
•
Axeda
•
Redline Communications
•
BelAir
•
Tropos Communications
•
Crossbow Technologies
•
Ubinetics
•
Dust Networks
•
Vivato
•
Ember Networks
•
WiLAN
•
Flarion
•
WildBlue
•
FireTide
•
Xsilogy
•
IP Wireless
•
And many dozens more…
•
IXI
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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T
Small-Company Profile
Aeris.net: Wireless M2M
D
O
B
T
Privately held; founded in 1992
Headquarters: San Jose, California
Technology: Aeris-designed/specified hardware uses underused bandwidth
(mobile-telephone control channels) to transmit M2M data.
Customers: Trucking companies, commercial-vehicle fleet-management
companies, security and alarm companies, remote-monitoring services.
Partners: Mobile-telephone service providers, chipset and radio
manufacturers.
Limitations: Very small payload sizes (< 1 kilobyte); not hugely scalable.
Future plans call for using the SMS stack, which would drive up cost.
Bottom line: By using an existing underused resource, Aeris.net has attracted
enough customers to have over 500 000 devices on its network and has
become profitable with little or no investment in infrastructure.
Other opportunities exist in underused resources.
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
6
Small-Company Profile
Aeris.net: Wireless M2M
Technology Evaluation: Aeris.net
No ne
Significance
Low
Me dium
O
B
T
Iridium
Hig h
Mobility
Intermediating
Technology
D
Satellite
Telemetry
3G
Nokia
Aeris.net
4G
Atheros
No madic
Fixed Wireless
Terabeam
LAN
Short Range
Bandwidth
Technology-Evaluation Chart
Comparative Mobility Graph
• Provides quick evaluation of a company’s
focus
• Shows company’s relative position on
mobility/bandwidth curve
• Shows intermediating technologies that are
important to both vendors and customers
• Implies information about technology
trade-offs (for example, power versus
bandwidth)
• Shows significance of new wireless
technologies
• Demonstrates long-term trends with clusters
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Small-Company Profile
Flarion: Mobile Broadband
Trials:
Quic kTime™ and a
TIFF (Unc ompres sed) dec ompres sor
are needed to see this pic ture.
•
•
•
•
•
D
O
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With Nextel in the United States
Vodafone KK in Japan
With Hanaro, Korea Telecom, and SK Telecom in Korea
With Telstra in Australia
With T-Mobile in the Netherlands
Largest U.S. deployment in North Carolina with Nextel
• 3400 square kilometers (1300 square miles)
• Has made the leap from trial to commercial venture
• $50/month + $50 for modem for unlimited 750-kbit/s service
• 1.9 GHz, advertised at 1.5 Mbits/s and reported as high as 3 Mbits/s
• May be fastest commercial wireless broadband available worldwide
Challenges
• Flarion’s FLASH-OFDM is incompatible with 3G standards, 802.x, WiMax.
• Flarion and other small companies are not leaders on the 802.20 committee.
• South Korea endorsed WiBro/WiMax for wireless broadband, not FLASH-OFDM.
Flarion’s FLASH-OFDM:
Also ran? De facto standard? Future ratified standard?
The next CDMA2000 or the next iDen?
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
8
T
Small-Company Profile
Flarion: Mobile Broadband
Technology Evaluation: Flarion
Intermediating
Technology
No ne
Significance
Low
Me dium
4G
B
T
Hig h
Mobility
3G
O
Iridium
Satellite
Telemetry
D
Nokia
No madic
Flarion
Atheros
Fixed Wireless
LAN
Terabeam
Short Range
Bandwidth
Significance: Flarion would like FLASH-OFDM
to be a “beyond-3G” standard.
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
9
The universe of wireless
applications
Home Networking
Military
and Naval
Air Travel
D
O
B
T
Satellite
Communications
Broadcast and
Fixed Broadband
Enterprise and
Factory-Floor Networking
Health Care
Non-3G Cellular
Robotics
Entertainment
Production
Transportation, Logistics,
and Fleet Telematics
Consumer Automotive
Telematics
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
Mass Transit
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Wireless Application:
Given Imaging
D
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The Given Imaging System
Ultra-Low-Power Wireless
Images the interior of the digestive system
Composed of:
• Pill with camera + transmitter (capsule endoscope)
• Array of antennae attached to outside of body
• Belt with recording device
• Computer for analyzing data collected by recorder
RF link between pill camera and receiver uses Medical
Implant Communications (MICS) band (402 to 405 MHz).
EIRP <25 µW; bandwidth <300 kHz.
The United States, Europe, other ITU regions have adopted
MICS as a standard.
System collects 14 gigabytes of data in 12 hours.
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Wireless Application:
Given Imaging
D
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T
•
Given Imaging has succeeded with ultra-low-power wireless internal sensors
and transmitters.
•
RF System Labs (Nagano, Japan) has a device similar to Given Imaging’s M2A
capsule, but more sophisticated.
•
Medtronic (Minneapolis, Minnesota) is using the same wireless technology
for heart monitors and heart defibrillators.
Implications:
•
Ultra-low-power wireless for sensing inside the body is real. Near-term future
applications: heart monitoring, remote defibrillation, stress monitoring.
•
Relay is necessary because of implant requirements for mobility, low power,
radiation concerns.
•
What will relay the data from the body to medical provider? Probably not
physical media. 4G/802.xx/UWB is better positioned than 3G to handle data.
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
12
D
Hot-Spot Failure
O
B
•
Fewer than 25 000 retail 802.11 hot spots are in the United States.
•
Most are not profitable, Wi-Fi is a loss leader.
•
Because of range limitations (802.11x range generally < 100m):
— Market fragmentation is tremendous.
— Cost of service is high; security is hard.
— Many different business models exist.
T
Venue
Network
Infrastructure
Provider
Venue
Venue
Internet
Service
Provider
Venue
Hot-Spot
Aggregator
Hardware
Vendor
Software
Vendor
System
Integrator
Hot-Spot
Operator
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
End User
(Large Retail
Wi-Fi Provider)
Support
Vendor
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Business Opportunities
Hot Spots Evolve?
D
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T
We’ll soon know what the hot-spot model will be like with 10x to 100x the range.
•
Examples include Navini’s WiMax Florida trial: 3-to-13-km range.
•
Smart antennae and other technologies will reduce power requirements
•
Unlicensed spectrum will speed deployment
•
Mesh networks could lower the cost of backhaul
Will any company be able to become:
A wireless broadband ISP? A (mobile-) phone company?
The largest U.S retailer has 3200 stores.
A typical U.S. gasoline retailer has 10 000 stations.
The largest U.S fast-food chain has 13 500 restaurants.
Any of them could go into the wireless-broadband/telephone business.
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Business Opportunities
Hot Spots Evolve?
D
O
T
B
Forms that a new entrant in the wireless broadband could take:
A venue, like Starbucks for T-Mobile. Gas stations could lease space for antennae.
Large Retail
Network Provider
Venue
(GasCo)
Infrastructure
Provider
Internet
Service
Provider
Support
Vendor
Hardware
Vendor
Customers
A virtual network provider. A restaurant chain could aggregate and resell service
from multiple network operators.
Infrastructure
Provider
Internet
Service
Provider
Hardware
Vendor
Network
Operator
Virtual
Network
Provider
(Restaurant
Chain)
Customers
Support
Vendor
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Observations
•
Small companies like Flarion and Given can and will have big impact.
•
Applications, like wireless body monitoring, are already driving demand
for wireless broadband.
•
New technologies (OFDM, mesh networks, UWB) will open the wireless
marketplace to new entrants.
•
The impact of unlicensed spectrum has changed the expectations of end
users about QOS and deployment speed.
•
The future of the wireless industry is more complicated than it used to be
and is growing more complicated by the minute.
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
16
What is the Wireless Futures
program?
• Purpose: To provide insight about the future
evolution of wireless solutions and to identify
opportunities for businesses that provide and
use wireless
• Key focus areas: Opportunities in non-3G mobile,
wireless spaces, fixed wireless, wireless
backhaul, wireless for vehicles.
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Making sense of the wireless
marketplace
Demand
Wireless
Applications
Business
Opportunities
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (L ZW) d eco mpres sor
are nee ded to s ee this picture.
OPPORTUNITIES
Business
Environment
Technology
Small-Company
Profiles
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Components of Wireless Futures
SmallCompany
Profiles
Who are the technology leaders?
Wireless
Applications
Wireless
Futures
Monthly
How do we use technology?
Business
Opportunities
How do we make money?
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Deliverables for Sponsors of the
Wireless Futures Service
•
12 reports per year—several of each of the following:
— Small-Company Profiles
— Wireless Applications
— Business Opportunities
•
Wireless Futures Monthly: SRIC-BI analysts’ assessments of implications
of dozens of recent news articles and company announcements
•
Two days of time from consultants having extensive experience in
wireless technology and business development
•
One presentation on your site or at one of SRIC-BI’s offices in Silicon
Valley, Tokyo, or London, at a time that’s convenient for your organization
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Final Slide
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
Appendix A:
From value chains to value networks
Hardware businesses often entail linear supply chains
Goods
Components
OEM
ODM
Brand
Retailer
End User
$¥€£
Wireless network businesses are often complex,
multiparty arrangements.
Infrastructure
Provider
ISP
End
User
Aggregator
Hardware
Vendor
Software
Developer
System
Integrator
Coffee Shops,
Airports,
Hotels…
Notebook PC Value Chain
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Appendix B:
The coming competition between licensed
and license-free applications
Users will substitute license-free applications for subscription services.
In some cases, license-free service providers will emerge to compete directly with
licensed service providers.
Unlicensed
Licensed
•
No cost for spectrum
•
Typically very high spectrum costs
•
Potential to offload 100% of cost of
terminal to end user
•
Typically, need to buy and often
subsidize end-user hardware
•
Risk of cochannel interference from
competing unlicensed
applications/services
•
Interference controlled by regulation
•
Summary: disadvantage in total cost
of use, advantage in reliability/
coverage
•
Summary: advantage in total cost of
use, disadvantage in reliability/
coverage
Verdict: Licensed and unlicensed services and applications will coexist
for the foreseeable future.
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Appendix C:
The Given M2A Capsule
The M2A Capsule Endoscope
Travels the entire digestive system after being
swallowed.
Size: 11 x 30 mm
Cost to U.S. medical-service provider: ≈ US$400
• CMOS image sensor from Micron
Estimated quality: 400 x 400 pixels; 8-bit color
• White LEDs for lighting
• Transmitter from Zarlink
2700 kbits/s @ 1 meter; actual rate probably higher
• Two 1.5-v silver-oxide batteries; ≈ 12 hours runtime
© 2004 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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