Transcript DETECON_CANTO_PRESENTATION_2005

Think ahead
How Next Generation Networks
Will Change the Caribbean
Telecommunications Industry
Simon Cavenett
Director,
Detecon, Inc.
Technology and the Socio-Economic Environment
The Three Ages
Technology and the Evolution of the 21st Century Socio-Economic
Environment
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1
2
Agrarian Age
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3
Industrial Age
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Information Age
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Localization
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Automation
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Globalization
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Specialization
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Standardization
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Data Manipulation
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Customization
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Production
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Integration
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The Internet
Origins and Evolution
The Internet has its origins in seminal 1960’s data communications
research and development
ARPANET emerged in the late 1960’s
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USA defense-related government funded project
Micro-computing revolution during the 1970’s and 1980’s
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Office automation
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Computer-to-computer networking
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Personal computing
The Internet emerged in the 1980’s
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Evolution of ARPANET into a global network architecture
World Wide Web emerged in the early 1990’s
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The catalyst for explosive growth of Internet access and usage
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Current Global Environment
The Telecommunications global market is worth US $ 1 Trillion annually
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Hence the high public and private interest and attention toward the
convergence of enabling business models in the ICT and Media industry
sectors.
A Clear Global Trend
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A universal socioeconomic demand for greater access to connectivity.
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Demanded by the organization and the indivireston126
Connectivity demand for:
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Communication information exchange
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Entertainment
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Productivity
Packet-based and Next Generation Networks (NGN) service the global
demand by offering
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New business models, new networks, new services
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User-controlled flexibility and customization with few boundaries
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Next Generation Networks
Next Generation Network (NGN)
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In general are wholly end-toend packet-based (all-IP)
networks
All management functions and
information data transport
functions associated with a
service on the packet domain
The power of the NGN concept is
the decoupling of the role of
service provider from network
provider at all levels

From system architecture
through to operating business
models
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Video Services (TV, movie, etc)
Data Services (WWW, e-mail, etc)
Telephone Services
Services
Point to point, Point to multipoint, Multipoint to multipoint
Transport
Point to point, Point to multipoint, Multipoint to multipoint
NGN’s Overrides Traditional Network Boundaries
“Creative Destruction” Threat to the Status Quo
Geo-political boundaries have historically been able to confine circuit-switched
network boundaries
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For control and regulation of operations and operator companies
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Defined inter-boundary interfacing at gateway switches or nodes
Packet-switched networks challenge this structure
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Individual IP packets are not required to traverse the same known routes
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The ability to regulate and control end-to-end packet flows is almost impossible –
unless explicitly done by the network operators
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This is a result of the IP packet technology
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IP routing technology was specifically developed to transport packets across networks
dynamically via whichever route possible.
IP and NGN Technologies are both creative enablers and at the same time
destructive disablers of many ICT principles
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Creative: new business models, networks, services
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Destructive: geopolitically-based regulatory environments, many traditional
business models
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The Melting of ICT Boundaries
In many countries, can categorize the commercial industrial economy
into three broad sector classifications:
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Manufacturing
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Services
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Retail
Retail
Services
Manufacturing
Traditionally in the Services sector, Telecoms operators are broadening
into retail
Likewise some retailers are broadening into services.
The motivation for Telecoms operators to broaden their scope and
“reach-over” into other industry segments is simple:
Traditional telecommunications
business models are dying
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Telecommunications Reform
Having begun to break down the barriers between it and other industry
segments and sectors, the telecommunications industry is now
experiencing increased competition “fight back” from within those
“raided” non-telecoms segments and sectors
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Fight back within the non-telecoms sectors by incumbents seeking to
regain or maintain revenues and market share
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Opportunistic entry into the telecoms segment by non-telecoms
incumbents seeking new revenue streams
For many companies it is becoming a case of “go with the flow” or get
left behind
Pressure is increasing for policy makers and regulators to implement
significant ICT reforms
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In general the pressure is for liberalization of ICT
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Dissolve the boundaries within the ICT sector
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And dissolve the boundaries around the ICT sector
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The Axiom of Future ICT Regulation
The following axiom is appropriate when considering whole national,
regional, and international economies and the respective industry
players:
In future, it will be difficult, if not impossible to
regulate businesses and services by
regulating the respective technologies.
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Telecommunications Service or Information Service?
The debate has existed in the international regulatory environment for
some years about what constitutes a telecommunications service and
what constitutes an information service.
The goal has always been to develop a set of definitions that allow
individual services to be neatly categorized to either on a mutually
exclusive basis.
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However no such set of definitions yet exists
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For example, with VoIP services the opinion of what belongs where
depends on the source
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VoIP service providers seek all VoIP services to be all information services all
the time
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Public safety representatives view VoIP telephony to be the same as
traditional circuit-switched telephony
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Incumbent telecom operators and lobbyists seek …. it depends on what the
incumbent operator themselves plan to do with VoIP and when.
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There may be nil or negative political desire to allow VoIP services as
information services – since information services are usually less regulated in
most markets
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National security concerns may exist with regard to as-yet unsolved issues for
lawful intercept and wiretap law enforcement needs.
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The Federalism Effect
In the USA for example, all-IP technologies such as VoIP are directly or
indirectly causing the federalism of the ICT regulatory environment.
Classified as information services, or at least with partial exemptions
from telecommunications services regulations, VoIP telephony services
partially or wholly bypass the local and/or state regulatory environment –
defaulting to the federal regulatory environment.
The federalism effect primarily removes geopolitical boundaries within a
sovereign nation. Increasingly the roles of local and state regulators is
diminishing with respect to ICT whilst the role and significance of the
federal regulator(s) expands.
The federalism effect ultimately may not be bounded within sovereign
nations but may lead to international regionalization or globalization
effects of the ICT regulatory environment.
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Conclusions
The Future of the Telecommunications Regulatory Environment
Less Predictability and Control
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Until the recent arrival of all-IP technologies, liberalization of the telecoms industry occurred in a
controlled and predictable manner.
Melting of ICT Boundaries and Industry Sectors
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Historically, telecoms liberalization occurred largely, if not wholly, within the telecoms industry –
or at least within the ICT sector.
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In future the demands for, and effects of, telecoms liberalization will be spread across the wider
industrial economy
Accelerated Rate of Change
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Prior to the arrival of all-IP technologies in telecoms, the pace of telecoms policy and regulatory
reform used to be measured in decades.
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The rate of technological change in the IT sector when applied to the telecoms sector implies
that in future what used to occur over a decade will occur within 1 – 3 years.
The Boundary-less Economy
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Ongoing federalism effects on the regulatory environment for nations – increased
responsibilities on the national policymakers and regulators
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Regionalization and globalization effects internationally
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New Policy and Regulatory models needed to better match the dissolution of the traditional ICT
sector into the “new boundary-less economy”
International Harmonization
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Strong need for international regional and global harmonization of policy and regulatory efforts
– to better align the regulatory environment with the technology environment.
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Outstanding opportunities for success.
Stay Ahead
Simon Cavenett
Director
Detecon, Inc.
10700 Parkridge Blvd., Suite 100
Reston, VA 20191
(703) 476-4800 Main
(703) 476-2577 Fax
www.deteconusa.com