Transcript Internet Futures

Internet Futures
Internet Futures
Here I am channelling Anders Rockstrom
of Telia Sonera, whose presentation at
the .se event in October 2006 had a
profound impact on me – he stated the truth
so clearly and simply it was an irresistible
message. More folk should hear what he
has to say – so this is your opportunity!
I’ve made some changes to match whats
been happening since 2006, but I think that
the essential message remains the same –
thanks Anders!
Geoff
Internet Futures
use
r
s
t
echn
ology
purpose:
use
r
s
t
echn
ology
share some musings
about this industry
and its future
think about some
of the major
factors that will
shape our future
why
This industry has a
rich history
why
This industry has a
rich history
…of making poor
guesses
why
This industry has a
rich history
…of making poor
guesses
and being taken by
surprise!
why
This industry has a
rich history
…of making poor
guesses
and being taken by
surprise!
could we do a better job?
One approach:
1. Observe the situation and
what’s happening
2. Believe what we see
!)
(the most dif ficult one
3. Understand where this may lead
us and what options may be
presented on the way
User forces on the Market
From telephony to chat
to mashups to p2p to ?
From radio to tv to ?
e
b
u
T
You
active
passiv
‘IP
TV
’
Revenue Profile
Revenue Profile
How to fill the gap of the
Internet’s revenue leak
Service Profile
How to fill the gap of the
Internet’s revenue leak
open
vs
walled
garden
Service Profile
How to fill the gap of the
Internet’s revenue leak
open
vs
walled
garden
infrastruc. vs services/
content
services
Service Profile
How to fill the gap of the
Internet’s revenue leak
open
vs
walled
garden
infrastruc. vs services/
content
services
user
coach
produced vs
potatoe
Service Profile
How to fill the gap of the
Internet’s revenue leak
open
vs
walled
garden
infrastruc. vs services/
content
services
user
coach
produced vs
potatoe
e.t.c
driver
dimensions
driver
dimensions
y
g
o
l
o
n
Tech+
+
driver
dimensions
y
g
o
l
o
n
Tech+
+
Usage
‘empower e
d user s’
penetration
driver
dimensions
y
g
o
l
o
n
Tech+
+
Busin
ess
?
Usage
‘empower e
d user s’
penetration
technology
++
surplus
fast refill
enabling windows
‘Moore’-type
of pace
technology
++
‘Moore’-type
of pace
surplus
fast refill
enabling windows
?
see it ...
... seize it
!
technology
++
‘Moore’-type
of pace
surplus
fast refill
enabling windows
?
see it ...
... seize it
!
general trend
shift
network
shared
of
end user
power terminal
technology
new production
paradigms
technology
new production
paradigms
network
shared
Over the top
apps
end user
terminal
e.g Skype
netw
a ‘network- service‘
produced outside
of the ‘network‘
technology
new production
paradigms
network
shared
Over the top
apps
end user
terminal
e.g Skype
netw
a ‘network- service‘
produced outside
of the ‘network‘
mobility
multi/broad-cast
...
technology
new production
paradigms
network
shared
Over the top
apps
end user
terminal
e.g Skype
netw
Content is a commodity
application that users
do rather than a
valuable service that
is delivered by service
providers
a ‘network- service‘
produced outside
of the ‘network‘
mobility
multi/broad-cast
...
technology
surplus enables
divergence
for
simplicity
performance
technology
surplus enables
divergence
for
simplicity
performance
QoS
IMS
Network VPNs
technology
surplus enables
divergence
for
simplicity
performance
QoS
IMS
Network VPNs
no nee
IP- con d f or
ver genc
e
technology
surplus enables
divergence
for
simplicity
performance
IMS
Network VPNs
no nee
IP- con d f or
ver genc
e
Web enabled user generated
content
wikipedia
QoS
technology
surplus enables
divergence
for
simplicity
performance
QoS
IMS
Network VPNs
no nee
IP- con d f or
ver genc
e
Web enabled user generated
content
heterogeniety
convergence complemented
with divergence
interoperability
wikipedia
when there is a
use for it
usage
penetration
who and how
usage
penetration
who and how
passive
1: st gener at i on
demand
c/ s onpeephol e
usage
penetration
who and how
passive
1: st gener at i on
2: nd gener
at i on
al l ways on
p/ p ser vi ces
demand
c/ s onpeephol e
usage
penetration
who and how
passive
1: st gener at i on
2: nd gener
at i on
al l ways on
p/ p ser vi ces
3:d generation
network resident
active
demand
c/ s onpeephol e
usage
penetration
Internet_paradigm(t)
a penetration detour?
“pure”
Internet
-2
n
ge
ing
k
c
ba
te
le
ph
o
ny
twilight
zone
gen-3
back to s?
the r oot
ngn
yg
g
pi
ims
gen-1
t/ r
cliene
s r ve
usage
critical infrastructure
sustainability
envir o
nmen
t
economy sustainable
Infrastructure roles
t
´
n
o
d want
l
socia
want
Users
(Dataföreningen)
have
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
usage = scaling
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
Please send heaps more….
bandwidth
storage
switching
fibre routes
routing
addressing
delivering
silicon density
power
memory speed
storage efficiency
heat dissipation
usage = scaling
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
Please send heaps more….
bandwidth
storage
switching
fibre routes
routing
addressing
delivering
silicon density
power
memory speed
storage efficiency
heat dissipation
usage = scaling
But is
bigger
always
cheaper?
usage
fuelling the usage growth fire
Please send heaps more….
bandwidth
storage
switching
fibre routes
routing
addressing
delivering
silicon density
power
memory speed
storage efficiency
heat dissipation
usage = scaling
But is
bigger
always
cheaper?
Business
modelling
y
g
o
l
o
n
h
c
e
T
Usage
Busin
ess
?
Legacy
Culture
Regulation
convergence
seemlessnet
NGN - . . .
..today operators
tend to be very
hype driven ..
Everone is talking
about it
Fewhaveactual
experience
..andthe actual
experiences are
mostly failures
Business
modelling
y
g
o
l
o
n
h
c
e
T
Usage
Busin
ess
?
new operator
roles
new business
logics
.. involving users
and other stake-holders
Business
modelling
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
Low margins
Low barriers to entry
No product differentiation
Deregulation and competition
Valued services are overlays to the network
Business
modelling
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
Low margins
Low barriers to entry
No product differentiation
Deregulation and competition
Valued services are overlays to the network
Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing
Wired telephony
Local Access
monopolies
Business data products
Mobile telephony
Business
today’s telco pressure points …
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
Low margins
Low barriers to entry
No product differentiation
Deregulation and competition
Valued services are overlays to the network
Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing
Wired telephony
Local Access
monopolies
Business data products
Mobile telephony
Investors are getting very nervous about telcos
Cost of capital is rising
Consumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face of price gouging
Shareholder returns need to stay high
No residual expertise left in-house
So where are
we heading?
network
commodity utility
network operation
high capacity
packet pushing
So where are
we heading?
network
commodity utility
network operation
high capacity
packet pushing
user - drive, production
p2p,content, ..
User-centric applications,
not network-centric services
Value shift up
the protocol stack
So where are
we heading?
network
commodity utility
network operation
high capacity
packet pushing
user - drive, production
p2p,content, ..
User-centric applications,
not network-centric services
Value shift up
the protocol stack
We are reinventing this industry
on the fly
Reinvention:
involving users
new partners
and different business models
thank you