Transcript CIAJ Presentation

9TH WEF
New Technology in the
Telecommunications Services in
Japan
September 1, 2003
Communications and Information network
Association of Japan
Diagram- 1
Subscribers to Japan’s Cellular Phones
90
80
Cellular Phones
IP users
75.7
69.1
70
72.1
65.4
62.5
(million subscribers)
60.9
60
65.2
57.1
55.7
51.9
51.1
50
77.8
46.3
44.9
41.5
40
34.6
30
19.7
20
7.5
10
0
'99.3
'99.9
'00.3
'00.9
'01.3
'01.9
Source: Telecommunications Carriers Association (TCA)
'02.3
'02.9
'03.3
'03.7
Diagram- 2
Outline of i-mode
i-mode Business Model
i-mode success factors
Use of packet network enables
inexpensive always-on access.
Contents
Provider
Use of Internet standards:
TCP/IP and HTML subset
Attractive handsets.
Information Charges
NTT DoCoMo
i-mode users
Packet Communication
Charges
Build a WIN-WIN relationship with
content providers.
Diagram- 3
Growth of Contents Business of i-mode
Growth of contents business
Breakdown of packets used
(100 mil yen)
3,000
1,000
Database
800
Mail
15%
Transaction
2,000
600
Web access
85%
Information
400
Entertainment
1,000
200
0
0
1999
Left axis
2000
2001
No. of i-mode ICPs
No. of i-mode menu sites
Right axis
Total information charges for premium contents
Diagram- 4
NTT DoCoMo Revenue/ARPU Analysis
(consolidated, US. accounting based)
1$=120\
FY2000
(00/4-01/3)
FY2001
(01/4-02/3)
FY2002
(02/4-03/3)
2002/2001
Sales revenue (a)
US$
34,812M
38,828M
40,076M
103.2%
Packet revenue
(b)
US$
2,937M
5,968M
7,386M
123.8%
8.4%
15.4%
18.4%
70.6
67.7
95 .8%
57.8
12.8
53.1
14.6
91.8%
113.6%
(b)/(a)
ARPU (Total)
72.1
(US$)
64.8
Voice
7.4
i-mode
ARPU:
Average Revenue Per Unit
Diagram- 5
Commercialization Plan of 3G Services
Carriers
No. of 3G subscribers
as of July, 2003
2001
2002
2003
Population
Coverage
W-CDMA
NTT
DoCoMo
(659K)
(152K, end
of 2002)
May
Introductory
service
Oct
Dec
Mar
Autumn
95%
87 % Other major cities
97%
& more
Tokyo Osaka,
Area Nagoya
Aug
Dec
Summer
J-Phone
(66K)
95%
Postponed
Osaka,
Nagoya
Tokyo
Area
cdma2000
TokyoAutumn
Area CDMA2000 1X
2GHz
KDDI au
(9,156K)
spring
Dec
1X EV-DO
Postponed
90%
800MHz
CDMA2000 1X
Diagram- 6
Elements Leading to Widespread Popularity of DoCoMo’s 3G
Background
1. Expansion of service area (% of population covered)
Initial launch
Tokyo area only
Dec. 2002
87%
Mar. 2003 Fall 2003 Spring 2004
91%
95%
over 97%
2. Explosive popularity of camera-equipped cellular phones
Two-thirds of cell phones shipped within Japan are cameraequipped models.
Capacity of digital camera function has moved into mega-pixel
range, and clarity of LCD screen has increased.
110 to 310 thousand pixels
in 2002
1 million pixels in spring 2003
2 million pixels in fall 2003
Popularity of mailing high-quality still images and long video
images via e-mail.
3G’s high-speed data transmission function
is its true worth
Improvement of 3G Handsets Performance
Diagram- 7
2002
2003.01-
2003
Autumn
Latest 2G
(PDC) Model
Weight
150g
120-130g
100g or less
100-110g
Size
204cc
110cc
100cc or
less
90cc
55 hours
180 hours
300 hours or
more
400 hours or
more
90 min
130 min
130 min
140 min
X
100,000300,000 pixels
1M pixels
or more
1M pixels or
more
384kbps
384kbps
384kbps
28.8kbps
Video phone
X
O
O
X
Actual Price
US$400 or
more
US$250
TBD
US$250 or
less
Dynamic Standby
time
Continuous talk time
Camera features
Packet Transmission
Speed (Max.)
Diagram- 8
Use of Cellular Phones (based on study by CIAJ)
2002
2003
Use of mobile Internet services
76.1%
94.5%
Use of camera-equipped cellular phones
21.6%
41.5%
Subscribers interests in 3G
16.8%
40.5%
Expectations for 3G
(multiple answers possible)
High-speed data transmission
60.1%
Exchange mail with images
59.9%
Possible to use abroad
58.1%
Map information
47.4%
Study conducted from March through April, 2003 on 600 people (of both sexes and covering every generation)
Diagram- 9
DoCoMo’s Transition Schedule From 3.0G to 3.5G
1. Higher transmission speed
Now
384kbps
end of 2004
14.4Mbps max
(provide HSDPA functions)
2. Complete conversion to IP of cellular phone networks
2005 or later
Now
Voice: circuit switching network
Data: packet switching network
ALL IP networks
Greatly reduce construction and operating costs
for adjustments to increase in data traffic
Diagram- 10
Diagram of 4G (Systems Beyond IMT-2000)
Compiled by ITU-R (based on Japanese proposal)
4G will encompass existing communication
systems such as 3G and wireless LAN
User
environment
Wide-area
mobility/
High-speed
On-site, Campus/
Medium-speed
Public wireless
LAN
Expansion resulting from
Systems Beyond IMT-2000 (4G)
IMT-2000
(3G)
Enhanced
IMT-2000
(3.5G)
cellular type
4G system
expansion
Indoors/
Walking
wireless LAN, Bluetoogh
1M
10M
high-speed wireless access
100M
Seamless interconnectivity where users don’t notice transition from one
network/system to another.
Local networks using wireless LAN, Bluetooth, etc.
Terrestrial digital broadcasting/BS digital broadcasting
1G
Data speed
（bit/sec.）
Subscribers to Japan’s Broadband Services
Diagram- 11
9,000
8,257
8,000
7,023
（thosand subscribers）
7,000
6,000
ADSL
CATV
FTTH
5,000
4,223
4,000
3,000
2,379
2,000
1,151
1,000
32
92
0
'99.3
'99.9
216
463
0.2
3
'00.3 '00.9
2,069 2,224
1,800
1,456
784
651
71
'01.3
'01.9
26
115
'02.3
'02.9
305
458
'03.3
'03.6
Source: Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications
Diagram- 12
Higher Speeds and Price Wars Among Internet Access Services
Current state of services
Maximum speed
in 2 or 3 years
(Mbps)
Maximum speed
(Mbps)
Typical monthly
charge (US$)
ADSL
8-12 => 24-26
30
CATV
8 => 30
46
100
FTTH
100
50
1,000
Mobile
2.5G
0.03
3G
0.384
4G
(proposal to ITU)
14.4
100 (around 2010)
Diagram- 13
International Tariff Comparison of Always-on ADSL Services
（Yen/month）
1.5M
8M
8M
768k
1.5M
512k
500k
(Max speed of downlink)
512k
1.5M
768k
10000
Upper Part:ISP access fee
Lower Part:communications fee
8000
7,176
6,993
5,979
6000
5,050
4,850
4000
4,984
4,613
4,477
1 ,9 5 0
1 ,9 5 0
2 ,0 2 8
3,081
2 ,5 4 0
2,453
2000
3,100
2,900
2,956
2,073
eo
S
ev
en
G
ld
se
us
D
Source: Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications
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yo
N
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ok
T
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0
Diagram- 14
Features of IPv6
Virtually unlimited number of addresses
IPv4: Total 4.3B
IPv6:3.4X1028 per capita.
Hierarchical Addressing
Efficient network administration
Security function is standard
Authentication in EC etc., secured traffic
Framework for QoS guarantee (flow label):
Stream data (voice, video)
Easy configuration by Plug&Play
IP enabled information appliance
Multicasting is standard
one-to-many, conversion of broadcasting and communications
Interconnection with Mobile Network
Seamless interworking between fixed network and mobile
network via MobileIP