Transcript Robert Feuerstein - Office of Research & Economic Development

Interconnecting the
Cyberinfrastructure
Robert Feuerstein, Ph.D.
[email protected]
1
Intercity and Transoceanic Networks
2
Long Distance Transport
Gateway
/Regen
600 km Maximum
1
Amplifier
Site
2
3
100km
4
5
Gateway
/Regen
Erbium
Amplifiers
• 40 10G DWDM Channels per fiber pair
• NZ-DSF, Corning E-LEAF fiber
• Dispersion compensation at amplifiers
• BER < 10-13
2.5G, 10G, 10GigE Waves
ADM or Optical Switch for
Protected Private Line Services
3
Level 3 Built a Physically Diverse Network



“Greenfield” Network built by Level 3 buried 42” to top of conduits
Network ring topology built for reliability
Uniform equipment and capacity availability makes ring
management possible
No Network
Spurs
No Non-Diverse
City Laterals
All diverse
Gateway entrance
facilities
95%+ diverse Gateway
Building risers
4
Network Reliability
Example Network: A 20,000 mile Long Haul network, 50 metro markets with 12 mile
metro rings
≈1 fiber cut
per week:
20 card failures
per week:
Long haul: 2-3 cuts per 1000 miles per year
Metro: 13 cuts per 1000 miles per year
45-50% of all FCC reportable outages in USA
attributable to fiber cuts (1992-1999)
Typical electronics/optics card failure time is
around 25 years, 20,000 mile 200Gb network will
have around 25,000 cards. (Not all will cause a
service outage)
5
Wavelength Services
Diverse Un-Protected Wavelengths: 2 x 10G capacity
PRIMARY WAVELENGTH PATH
Nashville
WT Cards
New
WT Cards
Orleans
WT Cards
RING 5
RING 3
WT Cards
WT Cards Washington
D.C.
WT Cards
Atlanta
SECONDARY WAVELENGTH PATH
Diversely Routed Wavelengths can be used
for Customer Provided Protection
6
All previous comments as Level 3 representative
Disclaimer:
All the following comments do not express the views
of Level 3.
The following comments express the views of Robert Feuerstein.
They apply to the next 5 years.
7
Dark Fiber
Metro Networks
• “short” distances
 single channel
 multiple channels
• “long” distances
 single channel
 multiple channels
To WDM or not?
Long Haul Networks
Do you need 100G?
8
Protected Wavelength Service
• Diverse Waves provide transparent SONET overhead bytes for protection
switching by customer router or ADM
• Diverse Waves provide full access to all bandwidth; e.g. two x 10G
• Protected Waves basically switch on loss of light or lots of bit errors
• Protected Waves built end-to-end with 1+1 protection
• Protected Waves provide access to one x 10G
• Protected Waves will cost more than two x 10G waves
So, does anybody really want Protected Waves?
9
Wavelengths on Demand: Layer 1
It’s NOT gonna happen, here’s why:
• Carrier must purchase multiple wavelength switching boxes: Big $$
• Carrier must install Wavelengths throughout network:
Big $$
• Carrier must develop support systems to enable this product: Big $$
• Carrier must train sales and operations staff to support new product
• Carrier must price it low enough to generate customer interest
 Carrier has to over-subscribe Wavelengths to enable dynamic provisioning
and reasonable economics
 So no guarantee that BW will be there exactly when customer wants it
For commercial customers, when they want bandwidth,
THEY WANT BANDWIDTH!
So, is there demand for this product?
10
“Wavelengths” on Demand: Layer 2/3
Maybe: here’s why:
• Ethernet/IP switches can support bursting of traffic
• Ethernet with MPLS, and IP switches, can provide protection
• Ethernet/IP switches perform stat muxing that can lower costs
• Carriers only need to add a few extra wavelengths to existing ones
• Carriers already have Ethernet and IP switches: minimal new
training/support or systems development needed
• Carriers can provision oversubscription in a sensible way to
provide economical usage based pricing
11
A Short History of Telecom
1876:
Early 1900’s:
Early 1900’s:
1982:
1996:
1997 - 2001:
2000 - 2001:
2000 – 2005:
Alexander Graham Bell invents “electrical speech machine”
Lots of overhead wires and operators on roller skates
Development of “Ma Bell”, where “Ma” is short for Monopoly
Judge Green and Breakup of Ma Bell
Telecommunications Act
100’s of Billions of $$ invested in telecom
Telecom crash
Major price cuts in telecom services, 100’s of bankruptcies
So what’s next?
12
Optical Transport Services Pricing Trends
Prices in 2005 are about 10% of what they were in 2000
Prices in 2010 will be ±10% compared to today
Because 10x the bandwidth on the network means:
–
–
–
–
–
–
More real estate
(large inflation)
More electricity
(large inflation)
More equipment
(modest price cuts per box)
Higher Right of Way fees
More equipment maintenance/service fees (modest cuts, per box)
More people for more work (modest increase, per person)
All of these force Service Provider costs to rise with increased
bandwidth demand, even with smaller, less expensive, lower
power consumption equipment and more efficient systems
If prices continue to fall dramatically in the short term, then
bankruptcies will ensue, followed by consolidation and price
increases
The era of collapsing bandwidth prices is coming to an end
13
Summary
• Level 3 is a high reliability partner for Dark fiber and Wavelengths
• Dark Fiber is a reasonable choice in many cases
• Protected wavelengths make no sense
• Wavelengths on demand Layer 1: No prospects commercially
• Wavelengths on demand Layer 2/3: Possible
• Wavelength price cuts are coming to an end
14