Transcript Some areas for research and innovation

Trends in Wireless Systems
A subjective view of a
rapidly evolving industry
Richard S. Wolff, Ph. D.
[email protected]
406 994 7172
March 17, 2003
3/17/03
Outline
•
•
•
•
Some user trends
The emergence of WiFi (802.11)
The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?
Some areas for research and innovation
3/17/03
Mobile devices will dominate
Subscribers worldwide
Millions
Mobile phone
Wireline phone
1,400
1,200
1,000
TV households
800
600
PCs
400
200
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source:
Risto Perttunen,
McKinsey, 9/00
3/17/03
Cellular vs Internet penetration
(Data from: ITU, 2001)
100
Taiwan
Cellular penetration
90
Italy
80
70
Fin. Neth.
UK
Ger.
Spain
60
Fr.
c = 1.51 i
Sw.
R2 = 0.44
Den.
S. Kor.
Aus.
Japa
n
50
40
USA
Malay.
30
Canada
20
Brazil
10
India
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Internet penetration
3/17/03
Strong growth in cellular subscribers
(US data)
Subscribers Double 97- 00
120
100.0
100
Millions of Subscribers
86.0
80
69.2
55.3
60
50.0
44.0
40
20
0
Dec-96
Mid-97
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Jul-00
Source: CTIA, 2000
3/17/03
DoCoMo annual revenue per user
(voice and i-mode)
(JY)
12000
10000
(120)
8000
(880)
(1540)
i-mode
6000
4000
10800
9270
2000
Voice
(8620)
(7770)
(6940)
8740
8650
8480
3/2000
3/2001
0
3/98
3/99
3/2002
Source: NTT DoCoMo Website, www.nttdocomo.com Investor Relations
3/17/03
1 billion wireless gadgets by 200x
(Choose x = 4, 5, ...)
• Gadgets and technology originally developed for one
purpose will be used in new and innovative ways for
other purposes
–WiFi developed for enterprise wireless LANs but can be used
as public infrastructure
• Two parallel, contradictory (or complementary) gadget
trends leading to different needs and capabilities
–Integration:
• cell phone as pager, organizer, e-wallet, radio, media player ...
–Specialization:
• different functionality, form factors, power requirements, connectivity,
processing and storage, fashion niches
3/17/03
Example: integration
• DoCoMo 3G FOMA phone
•
Download 684 kbps, Upload 64 kbps
(nominal)
• Still and video digital camera
–
Add text and frames to pictures or split into a
jigsaw puzzle
– Send as email
– Share video while talking
•
Remote video monitoring using a second
phone
• i-motion service for multimedia content
download (music, movie clips etc)
Source: NTT DoCoMo website
3/17/03
Example: hybrid
BlackBerry Wireless Handheld
•Initially paging, now two-way e-mail
•Initially text-based, now image and text
•Cellular voice added
•Targeted at business users
•Integrates with office software
•High level of security
Source: BlackBerry web site
3/17/03
Example: specialization
Designed to do one function very well
3/17/03
Traffic characteristics
Relative Traffic
Multimedia
70 – 80 %
50 %
Voice
50 %
2000
2005
20 – 30 %
2010
3/17/03
Bandwidth Available is Inversely
Proportional to Range
Broadband
WLAN
Broadband W-WAN
Solution?
11 Mbps
Bandwidth
Free Space
Optical
?
2 Mbps
MMDS
3G
Bluetooth
2.5G
56 Kbps
14.4Kbps
2G
Narrowband
Local Area Range
Metro Area Range
Wide Area Range
Geographic Range per Cell
3/17/03
Outline
•
•
•
•
Some user trends
The emergence of WiFi (802.11)
The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?
Some areas for research and innovation
3/17/03
Wireless LANs – Technologies
Specification
Bandwidth
(shared
media)
Unlicensed
Frequency
Band
Modulati
on
Issues/Comments
Bluetooth
0.7 Mbps
2.4 Ghz
ISM
FHSS1
Personal Area Network (PAN)
Interferes with 802.11b 2.4Ghz
802.11b/WiFi
11 Mbps
(83.5Mhz)
2.4 Ghz
ISM
DSSS2
Limited QoS & security
Corrected in 802.11e extension
802.11g/WiFi
22 Mbps
2.4 Ghz
ISM
DSSS2
BW extension of 802.11b
HomeRF
10Mbps
2.4 Ghz
ISM
FHSS1
Limited vendor adoption, forecasted displacement
by 802.11b
802.11a
51 Mbps
(300 Mhz)
5 Ghz
OFDM3
In-compatible with 802.11b
4 non-overlapping channels (vs. 3 channels for
802.11b)
2x power required of 802.11b today
More expensive than 802.11b today
Not licensed in Europe
HiperLAN/2
51 Mbps
5 Ghz
OFDM3
In-compatible with 802.11b
European licenses only so far
Long term harmonization w 802.11a
[1] Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum
[2] Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum
[3] Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
3/17/03
Wireless LANs: complement or compete
with cellular?
Source: Pyramid research
3/17/03
New Intel chip set:
Will this get the ball rolling?
3/17/03
W-LAN Deployment – work in progress
• Security – older 802.11 standard (WEP) being
replaced
– 802.1x for authentication/password
– Alternative is access point controller (e.g.
Bluesocket or Vernier)
• Visitor Based Networks (VBNs) or Hot-Spots
– Boutique ISPs emerging now: Boingo, Joltage,
Wayport, EtherLinx, WiFi Metro
– Larger ISPs waiting for wireless WAN solution to
emerge
• Provisioning and management of W-LANs
– Enterprise and residential provisioning of
subscribers
– Configuration of security and QoS
3/17/03
Typical Hotspots
• Architecture commonly deployed in Coffee shops and
airports:
Access Point(s) are
“dumb” & AAA Server
Located at Every Site
Installation (Per Site)
Hardware:
Installation:
On-going
$4000
$500
Internet Access:$150/month
Coffee Shop/Hotel/Public Space, etc
3/17/03
WiFi and Fries…..
March 11,2003
3/17/03
Convergence?
Use of WiFi for fixed Internet access
3/17/03
A peculiar marriage:
Cable operator using WiFi for fixed
access
March 11,2003
3/17/03
Integration of voice and data on WiFi
Note PC
User Premises
Wireless
Access Point
LAN
Voice&Data
Service Provider’s
Network
Mobile
Communication
Server and system
 Features
PDA
– Voice & Data Integration by IP
– Realtime Mobility
Cellular
Handset
– Seamless handoff, Voice support
– Wireless Security
– AAA and encryption for the access network
– QoS
– Admission control, L2 QoS management
3/17/03
The Convergence of Wi-Fi and Cellular…
NY Times, July 15, 2002
Talks Weigh Big Project on Wireless Internet Link
By JOHN MARKOFF
SAN FRANCISCO, July 15 — Several leading computer and telecommunications companies
are discussing the joint creation of a wireless data network that would make it possible for users
of hand-held and portable computers to have access to the Internet at high speeds nationwide.
The Intel Corporation, I.B.M., AT&T Wireless and several other wireless and Internet service
providers including Verizon Communications and Cingular are exploring the creation of a
company to deploy a network based on the increasingly popular 802.11 wireless data standard,
known as WiFi, according to several people close to the talks…….
3/17/03
Seamless Mobility/Transparent
operations: Cellular to WiFi
ITSUMO testbed
Telcordia/Toshiba research project
3/17/03
The car as the next internet appliance
Content
Fixed Network
•Seamless mobility
•Fast handoffs
•Content adapts to available
bandwidth
IGW
IGW
IGW
IGW
IGW
Hot Spot
WiFi Network
...
Cellular Network
Current solutions are limited in scope and functionality
3/17/03
Summary– Wireless LAN applications
• W-LAN solutions converging on WiFi (802.11b ->
802.11a)
– Enterprise & residential WiFi LAN network opportunity
exists today
– Hot-Spot & Visitor Based Nets (VBNs) coming?
– W-LAN obstacles to mitigate: QoS, mobility,
scaling,security
– Interworking with cellular- coming soon
3/17/03
Outline
•
•
•
•
Some user trends
The emergence of WiFi (802.11)
The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?
Some areas for research and innovation
3/17/03
Cellular networks- is there a 4G coming?
The bandwidth perspective
Speed bps
100 M
BT = Bluetooth
H2 = Hiperlan 2
PDC = Personal Digital Cellular
H2
802.11
PBCC
??
802.11b
5.5/11 Mb
10 M
802.11
BT
1M
?
WCDMA
EDGE
cdmaOne
GPRS 1X EV-DC, 3X
100 K
10 K
AMPS
1985
1G
cdma2000
PDC
1X
GSM
TDMA
cdmaOne
1990
2010
2000
2G
2.5G
3G
3.5G
4G
3/17/03
Wireless generations: User’s view
Attribute
1G
2G
3G
4G
Voice quality Poor
Reasonable
Good
Excellent
Coverage
Poor
Reasonable
Good
Excellent
Roaming
None or
Reasonable
Inconvenient
Good for voice Seamless for
all apps
Voice
services
Few
Basic telephony
Reasonable
Many
Data
None
Limited
Limited
Many
WWW
N/A
Poor
Limited
Convenient
Decreasing
$/MoU but
Increasing
total
$/month
Security:
w-spam,
privacy, etc
Tradeoff
security/QoS
for price.
Low
Environment
Impact
Other user
issues
3/17/03
This is just the beginning!
Source:
Rainer Malaka, EML
ICDE 2001
3/17/03
4G Imperatives(1 of 3)
• Innovative applications, not voice, will be the key
revenue generator
Programmability and open interfaces
while maintaining security, QoS, and bill-ability
Foster a 3rd-party app developer community
Build on work centered on fixed networks
The search for the killer app should never end
Any static portfolio of applications and services
will eventually become a commodity
Radical personalization and niche applications
Applications with a market size of 1
3/17/03
4G Imperatives(2 of 3)
• True convergence with the Internet is critical
IP must be supported efficiently
Remove discontinuities at the wired/wireless interface
and the data/voice interface
The Internet must also evolve to support wireless
mobility and ubiquity efficiently
Example: Fundamental addressing issues dictate IPv6
Example: Fundamental inefficiencies in supporting mobility
must be removed
3/17/03
4G Imperatives(3 of 3)
• Spectrum will remain the vital resource
– Integrate with unlicensed spectrum
• Allow creative technology and business models for seamless
inclusion of hotspots and multi-hop WLAN and other
technologies
– Manage licensed spectrum efficiently
• Consider dynamic and market-based mechanisms for ondemand spectrum allocation
3/17/03
4G: The Basic Model
Voice
3rd-party
Native
Applications
Applications
OPEN INTERFACE
Middleware
OPEN INTERFACE
IP-Based Core Network
OPEN INTERFACE
3G /
Native
Access
3G / 3rdparty
Access
Native
3rd-party
WLAN
WLAN
Hotspot
Hotspot
PAN,
CAN,
AAN
etc.
4G Access
Network
Emerging
Access
3/17/03
Evolution towards 4G
• 3.5G: An All-IP network (i.e., with Wireless IP)
integrating all our current favorite IETF protocols (MIP,
FMIP, HMIP, CARD, PANA, etc )
• 4G: A programmable, flexible, application-oriented Webbased architecture suitable for fundamentally supporting
– mobility
– WWW
– ubiquitous computing
– semantics-aware applications
– …
3/17/03
Outline
•
•
•
•
Some user trends
The emergence of WiFi (802.11)
The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?
Some areas for research and innovation
3/17/03
What are some of the missing pieces –
areas for research and innovation (1 of 3)
• Spectrum use
– Ultra-wideband
– Dynamic spectrum reuse
– What about free space optical?
• Software defined radios
– Flexible modulation and coding
– Software downloads of middleware and applications
• Array antennas
– Dynamic beam formation
– Interference rejection
– Further exploit signal processing and active feed back
and control
3/17/03
What are some of the missing pieces –
areas for research and innovation (2 of 3)
• Ad hoc networks
– Use the clients as fixed network infrastructure
– Use alternate routing to mitigate congestion, dead
spots
– What about the third dimension: incorporate satellites
– Dynamic binding: car-to-car, car-to-roadside
• Applications designed for wireless: exploit
programmable host platforms (BREW, J2ME,
Pocket PC, etc.)
– Location awareness – exploit it
– Advances in user interfaces – accommodate for
mobile use, hands free operation
– Mobile code (agents) for mobile users
3/17/03
What are some of the missing pieces –
areas for research and innovation (3 of 3)
• Economic models
–
–
–
–
–
Innovative business models Cost/benefit analyses
Life cycle cost studies
Impacts of technology trends
Assessments of policy and regulatory changes
Regional deployment scenarios
3/17/03
Summary
• Wireless systems should be defined in terms of
applications and services
– Not purely by air interface protocol
– Coming: Gazillions of wireless gadgets
– Need for massive mobile data management
• Rapid service introduction and heterogeneous
technologies (air interface, terminal device,
backbone)
=> programmability and open interface at all levels of the
system
=> applications with market size of 1
A very fertile area for research and
innovation
3/17/03