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Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Optical components
and networking
Michael S. Lebby
GM & CTO
1
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Capacity Issues & Challenges
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Long Term – US Needs More R&D to Retain Leading Role in
Network Development & Innovation
– Industry Structure has Changed Over Time
• Mid-Term – Escalating Consumer Bandwidth Demands
– New Technologies to Scale Core, Edge & Datacenters
– Broadband Ecosystem Highly Interwoven & Interdependent
• Short-Term – US Opportunity to Regain Leading Role
– Continuing Investment is Critical
Sources: OIDA research, One Chip Photonics
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Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
R&D gap
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How do we bridge this gap in the
optoelectronics industry?
Industrial
based R&D
Academia
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Industry
Less
companies are
profitable
Today
Relative
Investment ($)
Risk
Expense
OE
manufacturing
nearly all offshore in Asia
GAP
Research
2
Start of concept
4
Commercial R&D
6
8
Time (Yr)
10
Not
fashionable to
have corporate
R&D labs
anymore
Commercial
Product
Development
& Manufacturing
12
14
16
Sources: OIDA research
Can we afford to do R&D + manf in USA today?
981015di004
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What has changed over the last
decade?
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Market share
– 1993 – Losing manufacturing to Japan
– 2009 – Movement off-shore broadening and accelerating
– Competition from Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China . . .
– US companies moving operations off-shore
– R&D following manufacturing
• Corporate infrastructure
– 1993 – Vertically integrated
– 2009 – Fragmented, down-sized, divested, more focused start-ups
• Technology platform
– 1993 – Primarily III-V based
– 2009 – Si has expanded into optoelectronics areas; higher precision growth,
dimensional tolerances and structures
• Technology drivers
– 1993 – Corporate central labs
– 2009 – Central labs no longer exist in industry
– University research
– National laboratories
Sources: OIDA research
Optoelectronics is in deep trouble in USA
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Photonics markets...are
already global
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Asia dominant in OE/photonics
• Asia owned 81%
of global 2009 OE
market of $353B
Netherlands
3%
Germany
1%
France
1%
Italy
0%
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Other Europe
2%
2009
UK
1%
Canada
1%
USA
11%
South Korea
17%
Other Asia
3%
Japan
30%
China
8%
Taiwan
22%
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
North America & Europe minor players
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Market share in 2021
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Italy
0%
• USA
2021
Germany
3%
Netherlands UK
0%
3%
France
USA
1%
8%
– Down 11%  8%
South Korea
18%
Other Europe
2%
Canada
1%
Japan
24%
Other Asia
3%
China
14%
Taiwan
23%
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
Asia remains strong
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OE/photonics market by
major location
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• By 2021, share: Europe 8.6%, USA 9%, and Asia 82.4%
• Asia photonics maintains growth (3.4% CAGR 2010-2021)
600.0
Revenues ($Billion)
500.0
400.0
300.0
Europe
Asia
200.0
North America
100.0
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0.0
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
Asian infrastructure strongest
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OE/photonics market by
country
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
600.0
Other Europe
500.0
UK
Italy
400.0
Netherlands
Revenue ($Billion)
• By 2021,
OE/photonics
will be a $500B
business with many
countries
contributing…
• China grows quickly
• US constant
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Germany
France
300.0
South Korea
Other Asia
200.0
China
Taiwan
Japan
100.0
Canada
USA
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
0.0
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
Design + manf  off-shore
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USA decade trends remain flat
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
50.0
45.0
40.0
Revenue ($Billion)
• Optical fiber
communications
and components
strong
• Photonic lighting
CAGR 2010-21 of
12.2%
Translucent Inc
35.0
Photonic lighting
30.0
Precision optical lens and laser
Optical fiber comm
25.0
Optical storage
Optical I/O devices
20.0
Flat panel displays
15.0
Optical components
10.0
5.0
0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
USA  exporting photonics jobs?
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Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Networks must
address
scaling...
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Network as a catalyst for change in
lifestyle
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Social lifestyle  personal lifestyle




Before

Computer centric 
Experts level

Data exchange 
Today
Network centric
Trained level
Archieval/access




Future
User centric
Pedestrian level
Knowledgeable
Source: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT
Lifestyle drives PAN  BAN
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Social networking user growth is driving
bandwidth, datacenters
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
500M
450M
Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09
When will the trend slow down?
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from Exa to Zetta-bytes…
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Only 44 Exabytes/month in 2012
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism
Driven by consumer internet…
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
The challenge of
network scaling in
the core
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The challenges…
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Network interface rates will reach 10 Tbps
– Estimates range for 1Tbps in 2015 and up to 10Tbps in 2020
• Network traffic growth is outstripping system capacity
growth
– System deployments will accelerate strongly in the coming years
– System capacity will become the most important factor
• Simple extrapolation of current methods will not meet the
need
– Progress needed on all fronts (electronics and photonics)
simultaneously
• Market for core based systems will be robust
Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent
Driven by consumer internet…
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Scaling the core of the
network…
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• We know (or severely suspect)
– Global system capacity will be important in the next decade
• And we are not keeping up here in the US…
– Traffic growth will outstrip capacity growth
– Volumes will be large and growing (internet utility users)
– New photonics and electronics technologies are critically needed
• We are worried that extreme choking (congestion, traffic-jams)
will mean consumers will pay more for the data they use…
• $/bit metrics are here to stay…
Sources: OIDA research
Limit how we utilize the internet…
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System capacity and network traffic
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
(Including voice)
• 2010-2030 forecast trends
1000000
1Pbps
Gap???
Will traffic >> capacity???
100000
Gb/s
10000
1000
10Tbps
TDM Research
WDM Research
TDM Commercial
WDM Commercial
Total Traffic
1Tbps
100
10
1
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent
Will we fill the fiber optic pipes?
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System capacity and network traffic
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
(Including voice)
• 2010-2030 forecast trends
1000000
Will the price stop us from
down loading data?
1Pbps
100000
Gb/s
10000
1000
10Tbps
TDM Research
WDM Research
TDM Commercial
WDM Commercial
Total Traffic
1Tbps
100
10
1
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent
Carriers will charge $/bit to slow us down…
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System evolution…
•
•
•
•
1990s
2.5-10 Gbps
channel rate
8,16, 40
Channels
20-160 Gbps
Capacity
SE = .025-.05
History
2000
10 Gbps
channel rate
100 Channels
1 Tbps
Capacity
SE = 0.2
History
•
•
•
•
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Asia strong in network design…
2010
 100 Gbps
channel rate
 100
Channels
 10 Tbps
Capacity
 SE = 2.0
Near Future
2015
 1 Tbps ??
channel rate
 100 Channels
 50 Tbps
Capacity ??
 SE = 20 ??
R&D Needed
2020
 4 Tbps ??
channel rate
 200 Channels
 500 Tbps ??
Capacity
 SE >50 ??
R&D Critically
Needed
SE = Spectral Efficiency = Channel Rate / Channel Spacing
 Even with 2015 target, traffic growth will exceed capacity
growth by a factor of 10…
Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent
Challenge is to find 10Tbps technology
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Networks must
address
energy...
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Evolve architecture quickly…
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(while traffic CAGR >50%)
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• IP over DWDM transport:
– Eliminate unnecessary layers and minimize underutilized equipment
– Maximize architecture and equipment scalability
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism
Challenge: contain energy footprint
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Cost for power and cooling in data
centers
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Year 2000
– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is
the primary goal, while the
infrastructure to support it is
assumed ready
• Year 2006
– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is a
given but the infrastructure to
support deployment is a limited
factor
• Year 2010
– Three cooling challenges
• System, rack, data center
• Year 2021
– Green designs imperative…
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, DOE, OIDA OPTOmism, IBM Research, IDC
Power and cooling spending out of control…
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R la n
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T li c
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M ke y
ex
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S u b s c rib e rs
Broadband technology
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25
20
15
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology
40
35
30
O the r
F ib re /L A N
C ab le
DSL
10
5
0
Source: OECD
What is the effect if graph is mostly red?
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Architecture evolution – FTTH
access
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, Lange, Deutsche Telekom AG
Power consumption expected to rise fast…
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Photonics will
become
integrated...
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Moore’s Law  photonics to
follow?
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Sources: UCSB, OIDA Photonics Integration Forum, Intel
CMOS very successful  can we learn?
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PIC trends over 3 decades
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
InP-Membrane on Silicon (IMOS)
III-V on silicon (3-5OS)
COBRA/35P
Digital
100000
Nanophotonic
Integration Technology
10000
Philips
Opto+
1000
Lucent
NTT
100
10
Infinera
Generic
Integration Technology
F o ca l p la n e
Analog
Component count
1000000
Foundry
1
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: Meint Smit, TU/e OIDA forum Oct 2008
Photonics is expected to become digital…
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Integrated photonics over 4
decades…
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Courtesy of
R. Nagarajan & M. Smit
(LEOS Newsletter, 2007)
1.S.E. Miller, 1969
2.I. Hayashi, 1970
3.J. Shibata, 1984
4.O. Wada, 1986
5.T. Koch, 1991
6.M. Zirngibl, 1995
7.C. Steenbergen, 1996
8.C. Herben, 1999
9.L. Coldren, 2002
10.Y. Yoshikuni, 2002
11.Y. Suzaki, 2002
12.M. Masanovic, 2003
13.ASIP/III-V, 2004
14. R. Nagarajan, 2005
15. R. Nagarajan, 2006
16. M. Kato, 2007
17. R. Nagarajan, 2007
1000
100
Not shown (EDG-WDM):
V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel
dynamic equalizer, 2002;
V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel
power monitor, 2003;
A. Densmore, 32-channel
receiver, 2005;
V. Tolstikhin, 3-channel
ONU triplexer, 2005
10
1
Sources: OneChip Photonics; Valery Tolstikhin
Poised for big impact in fiber comms
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New optical technologies for
the edge
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Consumer bandwidth demands are the driving force
– Applications, architectures, services, content distribution
• Photonic Integrated Circuits
–
–
–
–
Lower costs
Use less space
Consume less power
Better performance
• FTTH Delivers
– Very high bandwidth
– Network efficiencies
– Future proof technology
Source: OneChip Photonics
PICs are the economical solution…
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Photonic integrated circuits save
power
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Important roles for green photonics in reducing power consumption in
communications and computing
– Short term – further deployment and upgrading of optical communications
links with lower mW/Gb/s, also leads to reduced cooling requirements and
improved cooling capability
– Medium and Long term – new computing hardware architectures employing
optical interfaces between processing, logic, and memory will lead to higher
flops/W
Sources: Lightwire, IBM
Tighter integration leads to lower power
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What do we need to do
technically?
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Even more sophisticated modulation formats
– Current systems at 40 Gbps use DPSK
– Coming systems will be Polarization Multiplexed QPSK with coherent
detection
– Next: 16QAM? Multi-ring constellations?
• More optical bandwidth
– Beyond C+L band
• Higher power fibers
• Photonic integrated circuits
If we don’t act  this
will take place in Asia…
– Game-changer for the edge (FTTH)
• New laser diode/modulator schemes  maybe non
semiconductor ????
US is in danger of losing leadership in OE R&D
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Data-centers need
to scale also...
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The Ethernet ecosystem evolves
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Content Providers
Broadband Access
Internet Backbone
Networks
Broadband
Access Networks
Internet Backbone
Networks
Enterprise
Networks
Internet eXchange and
Interconnection Points
Data Centers and
Enterprise
Content
Networks
Research
Networks
Research, Education
and Government Facilities
Source: J. D/Ambrosia, Force10 Networks
Datacenters  high speed intersections
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Why higher speed Ethernet?
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Fundamental bottlenecks are happening
everywhere
Increased #
of users
As demonstrated
by the number of
ISPs: Comcast,
AOL, YahooBB,
NTT, Cox,
EasyNet, Rogers,
BT, ...
Increased
+ access
rates and
methods
EFM, xDSL,
WiMax,
xPON,
Cable, WiFi,
3G/4G…
Increased
+ services
=
Bandwidth
explosion
everywhere
YouTube,
BitTorrent,
VOD,
Facebook,
Kazaa, Netflix,
iTunes, 2nd
life, Gaming…
Source: IEEE 802.3 HSSG Tutorial, Nov 2007.
Higher demands on the network
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Demand outpacing equipment
development
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Internet datacenter
demand
10Tb
2Tb
Switch/router R&D trend
2006
2008
2010
Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09
Data-centers are ‘under pressure’
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Future data-center evolution…
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
160 x 100GE links
with 5x100GE LAGs
64 x 1Tb links
or
640 x 100GE links
16Tb/switch
Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09
400G+ solutions are needed
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Source: Donn
Lee, Facebook, Sept 09
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Calibration with
broadband leader
(Japan)
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Expansion of Broadband Traffic Amount in
Japan (Oct 2009)
Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
104
Internet Traffic （Gbps）
103
30% increase per
year
102
Broadband service subscriber’s
total traffic amount (Estimate)
10
Peak Traffic of domestic major IX*1
Average Traffic of domestic major IX*1
*1 domestic major Internet eXchanges:
NSPIXP, JPIX & JPNAP
1
10-1
1997 1999 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
Internet traffic in Japan  Tbps
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40
40
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Broadband Services in Japan (Oct 2009)
35
Number of Subscribers (million)
30
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Population : 128 million in Japan
(2005)
Households : 49 million
25
20
total
FTTH
DSL
CATV
Target
of NTT@2010
15
10
5
0
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
Fiber based broadband  obvious
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Japan’s R&D example
10Tbps
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
• Development of next-generation high-efficiency network
device technology
– The goal of this project is to increase the speed and efficiency of
router switches and storage area networks for the purpose of energy
conservation.
• Development of device technology to create edge routers capable of over
10Tbps
• Development of low-power-consumption device technology with a
transmission capacity of 16Gbps on LAN-SAN, and demonstration of
networks using such technology
• As noted by OITDA – Japanese trade association (as per OIDA
in Washington DC), October 2009
Sources: OIDA research, IOA
Japan aggressive on R&D…
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Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
END
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Translucent Inc
Earth Abundant Materials
Technology.
Michael Lebby, PhD MBA DEng CEng
General Manager & Chief Technology Officer
[email protected]
Translucent
22-Jul-10, Slide prepared by David Williams
Earth Abundant Materials Technology
Translucent Inc
952 Commercial St
Palo Alto, CA94303
Thank you for listening
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