Transcript Cannot attract sufficient capital

The Internet in Developing
Nations: A Grand Challenge
Larry Press
Professor, IS
CSU Dominguez Hills
A grand challenge: connecting
the world’s rural villages
Larry Press
Professor, IS
CSU Dominguez Hills
http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/
Measuring and Reducing the
Digital Divide: a Grand
Challenge
Larry Press
Professor, IS
California State University, Dominguez
Hills
[email protected]
Background
We have done




Training
Pilot studies
ICT readiness assessments
Conferences and workshops
Outline





Background
Village applications and business
models
Backbone architecture and feasibility
Project policies (lessons learned from
NSFNet)
Conclusion – G8
Outline






A decade of activity
Where are we?
A grand challenge: connect all villages
The NSFNet strategy
Cabled and wireless technologies
Why Bangladesh?
Outline





A decade of activity
The NSF approach
Architecture and feasibility
Village models and applications
Action plan – WSIS
Outline


A decade of measurement activity
Time for action – a grand challenge:
• Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point
of presence in every village in every low and
lower-middle income nation.
• 3 billion people
• 3 million villages
A Grand Challenge
Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point
of presence in every village in every low and
lower-middle income nation.
3 billion people
3 million villages
Grand challenges

I believe that this nation should commit itself
to achieving the goal, before this decade is
out, of landing a man on the moon and
returning him safely to Earth.
John F. Kennedy, 1961

That's one small step for a man, one giant
leap for mankind.
Neil Armstrong, 1969
Grand Challenges

I believe that this nation should commit itself
to achieving the goal, before this decade is
out, of landing a man on the moon and
returning him safely to Earth.
John F. Kennedy, 1961

That's one small step for a man, one giant
leap for mankind.
Neil Armstrong, 1969
A Grand Challenge
Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point
of presence in every village in every low and
lower-middle income nation.
3 billion people
3 million villages
A Grand Challenge
Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point
of presence in every village in every low and
lower-middle income nation.
3 billion people
3 million villages
A grand challenge
Connecting the approximately 3 billion
people residing in 3 million villages of
the developing nations within ten years.
A grand challenge
Connecting the approximately three
billion people residing in three million
rural villages of the developing nations
within ten years.
A grand challenge
Connecting the approximately three
billion people residing in three million
rural villages of the developing nations
within ten years.
A grand challenge

Build IP backbones providing highspeed connectivity to and a point of
presence in every rural village in every
developing nation within ten years.
(There are roughly 3 million villages and
3 billion people in low and lower income
nations).
Possible ICT Grand Challenges


Provide high-speed IP connectivity to all
villages
Provide access to all engineering and
scientific literature and data sets at all
universities
A proposal



The G8 just pledged to increase African
aid by $25 billion per year.
A portion of that increase should be
used for a high-speed Internet
backbone to and a point of presence in
every African village.
There are 3 billion people in 3 million
villages in developing nations
1990s hypothesis



Computer networks can improve the
quality of life in developing nations at a
relatively low cost
Marginal impact increased by a lack of
alternative ICT and transportation
Raising the quality of rural life will
reduce pressure for urban migration
1990s Hypothesis



Computer networks could improve life
in developing nations at a relatively low
cost
Marginal impact could be relatively
great due to a lack of alternative ICT
Raising the quality of rural life will
reduce migration pressure
This motivated 15 years work




ICT measurement and readiness studies
Pilot applications and business models
Training
Conferences and workshops
Background
Over a decade of activity
We have done




Training
Pilot studies
ICT readiness assessments
Conferences and workshops
Over a decade of activity


Early hypothesis
Experience with applications supporting
those hypothesis
E-readiness assessments





10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies
8 case study methodologies
137 nations have been assessed at least once
55 nations have been assessed at least 5
times
10 nations have been assessed at least 10
times
DOI vs. average of other
indices
Correlation coefficient = .96
Average of other indices
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
10
20
DOI
30
40
Successful Applications



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

Education
Health care
E-commerce
Democracy and human rights
E-government
News and entertainment
Where are we?




Many applications have been
demonstrated.
The Internet is on the “radar screen”
But the digital divide persists
Capital is not available
Early successes, still operating
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
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Education
Health care
E-commerce
Democracy and Human Rights
E-government
Entertainment
IP Connectivity, 2003
Income
Low
Lower
middle
Upper
middle
High
World
Population Subscribers
Per 100
2,413
5,424
.22
2,393
69,762
2.92
331
12,150
3.68
961
216,069
22.48
6,097
303,405
4.98
Internet subscribers, 2003
Income
Low
Lower
middle
Upper
middle
High
World
Population Subscribers
Per 100
2,413
5,424
.22
2,393
69,762
2.92
331
12,150
3.68
961
216,069
22.48
6,097
303,405
4.98
Cannot attract private capital

Cost of 20 hours access as percent
of average monthly GNI per capita
Low income nations
246.4
Lower middle income
24.9
Upper middle income
8.6
High income
1.6
On the “radar screen”


Every government is aware of the
strategic importance of the Internet
(risks too)
On the “radar screen”


Every government is aware of the
strategic importance of the Internet
(risks too)
Mosaic dimensions
After 10-15 years work




We have evidence that the hypothesis is
true
The digital divide persists
Capital is not available
The Internet is on the “radar screen” –
all governments recognize the
communication-development link
On the “radar screen”



Every government is aware of the
strategic importance (and risks) of the
Internet
Multilateral institutions – G8, World
Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also well
aware of the role of communication in
development
Time for action
We have done




ICT readiness assessments
Pilot studies
Training
Conferences and workshops
E-readiness assessments





10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies
8 case study methodologies
137 nations have been assessed at least once
55 nations have been assessed at least 5
times
10 nations have been assessed at least 10
times
“State of” Annuals
How to proceed?




The NSF approach
Architecture and feasibility
Village models and applications
Action plan – WSIS
After 10-15 years work




We have evidence that the hypothesis is
true
The digital divide persists
Capital is not available
The Internet is on the “radar screen” –
all governments recognize the
communication-development link
Connectivity, 1991
Internet diffusion, 9/1991
Internet diffusion, 6/1997
Generic Digital Divide
The “digital divide” persists
We have done




ICT readiness assessments
Pilot studies
Training
Conferences and workshops
Where are we?




Many applications have been
demonstrated.
The Internet is on the “radar screen”
But the digital divide persists
Capital is not available
Where are we?




The digital divide persists
Capital is not available
Many applications have been
demonstrated
The Internet is on the “radar screen”
An unconnected nation

No national backbone network
No residential connectivity
No commercial application
Character-oriented email and news primary
applications
Connectivity only in a few universities

The US in 1989




On the “radar screen”



Every government is aware of the
strategic importance (and risks) of the
Internet
Multilateral institutions – G8, World
Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also well
aware of the role of communication in
development
Time for action
On the “radar screen”


Every government is aware of the
strategic importance of the Internet
(risks too)
On the “radar screen”


Every government is aware of the
strategic importance (and risks) of the
Internet
Multilateral institutions – G8, World
Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also
On the G8 “radar screen”


Established Digital Opportunity Task
Force at the 2000 Summit
Japan pledged $15 billion
On the “radar screen:” WSIS


Connect villages with ICTs and establish
community access points by 2015
Nine other targets related to ICT
On the “radar screen:” UN
Millennium Development Goal

In cooperation with the private sector
make available the benefits of new
technologies, specifically information
and communications.
Successful Applications

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
Education
Health care
E-commerce
Democracy and human rights
E-government
News and entertainment
Village models and
applications
Three successful approaches
in the village



Corporate owner, single application
“Franchise” centers
State owned
Many successful pilots
Sustainable approaches to
village Internet centers

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Corporate owner, single application
“Franchise” centers
State owned
N-Logue rural Kiosk

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Remote medicine
Remote veterinary
Remote agricultural
advice
E-government
E-mail
digital photography
desktop publishing
Telephony
Break even at
$75/mo.
YCC mobile unit
Cuban Youth Computer Clubs


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350 YCCs
Geographically
dispersed
Education
Games
Email
News
YCC mobile unit
E-choupal home page
E-choupal services

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Login
Weather
Crop best practices
Market related information
Agricultural queries
Suggestion box
Farmer profile
Government schemes
News
E-Chaupal
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
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
ITC, an Indian conglomerate
(agribusiness, infotech, hotels, etc.)
Remote centers at agricultural hub
locations
Savings in logistics and middlemen
Payback time 8 months to 2 years
Using VSAT and a single application
Early successes, still operating






Education
Health care
E-commerce
Democracy and Human Rights
E-government
Entertainment
Education

Youth Computer Clubs, Cuba


http://www.jovenclub.cu/
Enlaces Network, Chile

http://www.redenlaces.cl/
Health care

Healthnet Satellife


http://www.healthnet.org
Healthnet in Nepal

http://www.healthnet.org.np/
E-commerce

Soviet Union: Relcom (96/391
commercial accounts, 9/91)


Information Village research project
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
www.relcom.ru
http://www.mssrf.org/
Software export from developing
nations
E-government
Democracy and Human Rights

From Relcom during the 1991 Soviet Coup
attempt:


“They try to close all mass media. They stopped
CNN an hour ago, and Soviet TV transmits opera
and old movies.”
“Yes, we already prepared to shift to underground;
you know -- reserve nodes, backup channel, hidden
locations. They'll have a hard time catching us!”
Entertainment and connection
to the outside world
Many quips: quick-impact
projects

International Development Research Centre
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
Information for Development Program, Infodev
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
http://www.infodev.org/
Development Gateway


http://www.idrc.ca/
http://www.developmentgateway.org/
Sustainable Development Networking Program

http://www.sdnp.undp.org/
NSFNet approach and strategy
Project policies – lessons
learned from NSFNet
An unconnected nation

No national backbone network
No residential connectivity
No commercial application
Character-oriented email and news primary
applications
Connectivity only in a few universities

The US in 1989




The NSFNet Approach


Developing nations challenge: Provide a
high-speed Internet link and a point of
presence in every village in every low and
lower-middle income nation.
NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed
Internet link and a point of presence in every
university in the United States.
The NSFNet Approach


NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed
Internet link and a point of presence in every
university in the United States.
Developing nations challenge: Provide a
high-speed Internet link and a point of
presence in every village in every low and
lower-middle income nation.
The NSFNet Strategy



Build backbone
Fund connectivity (POP, router and link)
Connect



US higher education networks
International research and education
networks
Users in control
The NSFNet Approach


NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed
Internet link and a point of presence in every
university in the United States.
Developing nations challenge: Provide a
high-speed Internet link and a point of
presence in every village in every low and
lower-middle income nation.
The NSFNet Strategy



Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSF $125
million
Expert designers on temporary assignment
Users in control – IP protocol implies
decentralized funding and innovation
The NSFNet Strategy



Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSF $125
million
Users in control – IP protocol implies design
Expert designers on temporary assignment
NSFNet – seeding the Internet



Build backbone connecting key sites
Fund connectivity and POP (router and
a link)
Connect



US higher education networks
International research and education
networks
First IP backbone – seeded the Internet
NSFNet T1 Backbone, 1991
The NSFNet Approach


NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed
Internet link and a point of presence in every
university in the United States.
Developing nations challenge: Provide a
high-speed Internet link and a point of
presence in every village in every low and
lower-middle income nation.
NSFNet – seeding the Internet



Build backbone connecting key sites
Fund connectivity and POP (router and
a link)
Connect



US higher education networks
International research and education
networks
First IP backbone – seeded the Internet
The NSFNet Strategy



Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSFnet $125
million total cost
Users in control – IP protocol implies
decentralized funding and innovation
R&D project – expert designers on temporary
assignment, not government staff
Highly leveraged:
Government funding ($million)
Project
Morse telegraph
ARPANet
CSNet
NSFNet backbone
NSF higher ed connections
NSF international connections
Cost
.03
25
5
57.9
30
6
User control





Universities designed their LANs
Universities funded their LANs
Universities trained their users
Users invented applications – innovation
at the edges of the network
A “dumb,” end-to-end network – IP is a
design philosophy as well as a protocol.
NSFNet with regional links
NSFNet



Build backbone
Fund connectivity and POP (router and
a link)
Connect


US higher education networks
International research and education
networks
Highly leveraged:
Government funding ($million)
Project
Morse telegraph
ARPANet
CSNet
NSFNet backbone
NSF higher ed connections
NSF international connections
Cost
.03
25
5
57.9
30
6
User control





Universities designed their LANs
Universities funded their LANs
Universities trained their users
Users invented applications – innovation
at the edges of the network
A “dumb,” end-to-end network – IP is a
design philosophy as well as a protocol.
Areas of expertise for GRNet
Geographic Information Systems
Local Geography
Terrestrial wireless design and practice
Fiber optic design and installation
Network operation center design
Network modeling and optimization
Satellite research and practice
High altitude platform research and practice
Village POP configuration design
Training for POP operation
Design of solar and other power systems
Spectrum politics and policy
Mechanical design for radio towers
Village telecommunication centers and applications
Expert designers on
temporary assignment







UCLA
MIT
SRI
BBN
NSF
Michigan
Etc.
NSFNet



Build backbone
Fund connectivity and POP (router and
a link)
Connect


US higher education networks
International research and education
networks
NSFNet



Build backbone
Fund connectivity and POP (router and
a link)
Connect


US higher education networks
International research and education
networks
Technologies



Cabled
Wireless today
Wireless to consider
Backbone architecture and
feasibility
Architecture and feasibility
Fiber Backbone, Mesh, POPs
Fiber where possible – follow
the roads
Use cable links where possible
Use fiber wherever possible
Wireless technology

Today



Soon


VSAT
Various terrestrial technologies
WiMAX
Worth investigating



High altitude platforms
LEO constellations
GIS-based radiation modeling
VSAT
High-Altitude Platform
Sanswire HAP
Sanswire HAP









245 x 145 x 87 feet
Proprietary lifting gas technology
Outer envelope covered in film solar panels
Solar powered electric motors
Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units
Desired altitude: 65,000 feet
Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area
Controlled by earth stations on the ground
Flight time: 18 months
Sanswire progress


May 2005: floating tests
July 2005: joint venture to deploy five
platforms in Colombia
FiberAfrica



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

70,000 Km fiber core
30,000 Km fiber spurs
Wireless to fiber
Reach 400 million
Walking/bicycling
distance
1 billion dollars
Daunting, but with
precedents
Cost context, $billion








Manhattan project: 1.889
US Interstate Highway system: 128.9
Apollo program: 25.4
GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete
Baseball stadium: .581
B2 bomber: 2.2
US pet food: 10 per year
G8 African pledge: 25 per year (new)
Wireless technology

Today



Soon


VSAT
Proprietary terrestrial technologies
WiMAX – may unify terrestrial wireless
Worth watching


High altitude platforms
Constellations of LEO satellites
LEO constellation
Cost context, $billion








Manhattan project: 1.889
US Interstate Highway system: 128.9
Apollo program: 25.4
GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete
Baseball stadium: .581
B2 bomber: 2.2
US pet food: 10 per year
G8 African pledge: 25 per year (new funds)
WiMAX may unify wide-area
terrestrial wireless


?
?
?
?
License free market innovation
Mass production (carrier and user)
Global regulatory conformity
“Competition” from next generation Wi-Fi
“Competition” from 3rd generation cellular
“Competition” from new license-free bands
WiMAX issues






License free market innovation
Mass production (carrier and user)
Global regulatory conformity
“Competition” from 802.11
“Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular
“Competition” from new license-free
bands
Sanswire HAP
Sanswire HAP









245 x 145 x 87 feet
Proprietary lifting gas technology
Outer envelope covered in film solar panels
Solar powered electric motors
Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units
Desired altitude: 65,000 feet
Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area
Controlled by earth stations on the ground
Flight time: 18 months
Sanswire progress


May 2005: floating tests
July 2005: joint venture to deploy five
platforms in Colombia
Radiation modeling with GIS
Wireless supplements



VSAT
Terrestrial wireless
Worth investigating



LEO constellations
High altitude platforms
GIS-based radiation modeling
WiMAX – 802.16


Worldwide Interoperability for
Microwave Access
Three architectures



Point to point
Point to multipoint
P to P or P to MP plus mesh
WIMAX Promises

Non line of site
Up to 50 kilometers
Up to 70 mbps
802.20 mobile applications

Unique MAC, modulation, etc?



WiMAX issues






License free market innovation
Mass production (carrier and user)
Global regulatory conformity
“Competition” from 802.11
“Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular
“Competition” from new license-free
bands
WiMAX may unify wide-area
terrestrial wireless


?
?
?
?
License free market innovation
Mass production (carrier and user)
Global regulatory conformity
“Competition” from next generation Wi-Fi
“Competition” from 3rd generation cellular
“Competition” from new license-free bands
WiFi and WiMAX are version 1

Moore’s Law



FCC has noticed WiFi success
NPRM, license-free



3,650-3,700 MHz
25 Watt EIRP
NOI, license-free



Smart radios and antennae
“White space” TV channels
Lower frequency
FCC Wireless Broadband Access Task Force
WiMAX Market Development
BWCS Limited
Wireless technologies to
investigate



LEO constellations
High-altitude platforms
Radiation modeling with GIS
Why Bangladesh?


Need is great
Some positive points
Great need


Pent up demand: cable landing, poor
telephone infrastructure (300k users)
Poor people – great marginal impact
Positive points

Densely populated – reach with fiber




Railroad right of way
Power Grid Company
Positive experience with micro-credit
Government will
2002 Population Density/km2
Bangladesh
India
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Nepal
China
Myanmar
Bhutan
925
329
289
182
164
134
72
15
Grameen Bank Microcredit
Grameen Phone, since 1993



45 million people in 30,000 villages
$300 million with $44m after tax profit
$2 daily profit is over twice BD average
WEF Global Competitiveness,
2003-4

Network readiness index 92/102

National savings rate 34/102
Access to credit 46/102
Inflation 37/102
Local equity market access 35/95
Intensity of local competition 52/95

Government prioritization of ICT 43/102




Workshop goal





Bangladesh backbone
POP in every “village”
“High speed”
Use the NSF approach
Detailed, funded proposal by WSIS
Pondicherry Information Links
E-readiness assessments


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10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies
8 case study methodologies
137 nations have been assessed at least once
55 nations have been assessed at least 5
times
10 nations have been assessed at least 10
times
Sanswire HAP
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245 x 145 x 87 feet
Proprietary lifting gas technology
Outer envelope covered in film solar panels
Solar powered electric motors
Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units
Desired altitude: 65,000 feet
Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area
Controlled by earth stations on the ground
Flight time: 18 months
Cost context, $billion
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Manhattan project: 1.889
US Interstate Highway system: 128.9
Apollo program: 25.4
GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete
Baseball stadium: .581
B2 bomber: 2.2
US pet food: 10 per year
Steps
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Begin with a pilot nation
Design and implement the network
using a team of experts
Apply lessons learned to other nations
Which pilot nation?
Strong government support of
telecommunication
Open, competitive telecommunication market
Open, competitive business practices and laws
High level of poverty
High level of literacy
Dense population
High-speed international fiber links
Strong university programs in EE, CS, and GIS
Varied climate and topography
Bangladesh?
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Densely populated – reach with fiber
Very poor
Undersea cable coming
Extreme climate
Positive experience with micro-credit
Government will not clear
Low literacy rate
Weak universities
WiMAX issues
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License free market innovation
Mass production (carrier and user)
Global regulatory conformity
“Competition” from 802.11
“Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular
“Competition” from new license-free
bands
Why Bangladesh?
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Need is great
Some positive points
Great need
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Pent up demand: cable landing, poor
telephone infrastructure (300k users)
Poor people – great marginal impact
The NSFNet Strategy
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Build backbone
Fund connectivity and POP (router and a link)
Connect
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US higher education networks
International research and education networks
Highly leveraged -- $125 million
Users in control
Use expert designers
Which pilot nation?
Strong government support of
telecommunication
Open, competitive telecommunication market
Open, competitive business practices and laws
High level of poverty
High level of literacy
Dense population
High-speed international fiber links
Strong university programs in EE, CS, and GIS
Varied climate and topography
Steps


Begin with a pilot nation
Design and implement the network
using a team of experts
WiMAX issues






License free market innovation
Mass production (carrier and user)
Global regulatory conformity
“Competition” from 802.11
“Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular
“Competition” from new license-free
bands
Conclusion
Okinawa G8 summit, July
2000
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Focused on information and communication
technology
Billions of dollars were pledged (Japan alone
promised $15 billion)
Digital Opportunity Task Force was formed "to
identify ways in which the digital revolution
can benefit all the world's people, especially
the poorest and most marginalized groups."
A few reports and no action
We have many of the
needed skills -- what is the
role/responsibility of AIS
in developing nations?
Action plan
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Network design for a pilot nation
Deploy in the network in a pilot
Planning for implementation in other
nations.
Implementation in those nations.
Let us continue the conversation
[email protected]
http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress