Transcript Telecom Power Market: Global Perspectives

Transforming the Network:
Implications for Telecom Power Marketing
Intelec 2004
Chicago
September 22, 2004
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Wireless/Wireline Parity
200.0
(millions)
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1999
ILEC Lines
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2000
Wireless Subs
2001
CLEC Lines
2002
Cable Modems
2003
DSL
POTS to PIPES
Millions of Connections
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995
Total
Telco
Ultra-Broadband
Connecti
ons PIPES
POTS
Total Narrowband
Broadband
xDSL and T-1
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2005
 Narrowband POTS
to broadband PIPES
(P2P)
 “Triple-Play”
services: POTS +
Internet + TV on
unified networks
Resale/UNE
2000
 Circuit switches to
packet (C2P)
2010
 Reduce costs:
redirect capex and
reduce opex
2015
2020
Major Telco Priorities
New Growth
Businesses
26%
New revenue streams to replace
POTS

Bundled services to boost ARPU
and replace profits

Significant and sustainable OPEX
reductions


Retain and win-back customers
Shift CAPEX to new technologies
… C2P and P2P

Established
Business
74%
2004e CapEx = $15.7 B
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DC Power Systems
Secondary
Distribution
Primary
Distribution
Utility
AC in
-48VDC
Loads
-48 VDC out
System
Control
DC/DC
Converter
DC/AC
Inverter
AC/DC
Rectifiers
Other
DC
Loads
AC
Loads
Batteries
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… only the packaging changes!
Local Exchange Carriers
Other IOCs
CLECs
6%
7%
Sprint LTD
5%
•
•
•
•
•
CO Size
0-500
500-1K
1K-5K
5K-10K
> 10K
RBOCs
82%

Regional Bell Operating Cos (RBOCs)

Independent Telcos (IOCs)
Competitive Local Exchange Carriers (CLECs),
including Cablecos

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ILEC Network Before C2P
STP
SCP
Tandem
Tandem
Long Distance
Network
STP
Local Exchange
SCP
STP
SEO
HEO
SCP
Local Exchange
PBX
Business
REO
PBX
Business
NGDLC
Residential
System
Local Exchange
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Residential
NGDLC
ILEC Network After C2P
Softswitch
Servers
Packet
Network
Local Exchange
Gateway
Gateway
Gateway
Local Exchange
PBX
Business
Residential
Key
System
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Access Network Infrastructure
Central Office
MTU
or
MDU
Building
Entrance
Terminal
Class 5
Switch
F2 Service
Terminal
CO
Loop
DLC
(COT)
Service Drop
MDF
SAIC
F1 “Feeder” Plant
Tandem (via IOF)
T1 trunks on
copper or fiber
DLC
(RT)
~ 296 M “Equipped” Loops in Major Telcos
~ 168 M “Working” Loops in Major Telcos
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“Subscriber”
F2 “Distribution” Plant
F2 Service
Terminal
Service Drop
“Subscriber”
Fiber-to-the-Node (FTTN)
SAIC
CO
Remote
DSLAM
Voice
(PSTN/TDM)
(300-500 Subs)
Softswitch
Data
(ATM/FR,
IP/Ethernet)
48/190 VDC
SAIC
Power
Node
Remote
DSLAM
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12,000-18,000 ft.
Fiber feeder cable
(300-500 Subs)
5,000 ft max.
Copper distribution
Fiber-to-the-Premises (FTTP)
Circuit/Packet
Switch
AC
Optical
Network
Terminal
(ONT)
DC Power
Residential
AC
Optical Line
Terminal (OLT)
ONT
Splitter
Central Office
Upstream Data Rate = 155 Mbps
Downstream Data Rate = 622 Mbps
Separate Wavelength for Video = 1550 nm
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Ethernet
N x POTS
ONT
Small Office/
Home Office
Cell Site Trends
Access
Mobility
Vehicular
Neighborhood
In-Building/
Near Building
Picocell
Microcell
Macrocell
Integration with Wireline Network
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Cell Site Deployments
Neighborhood/
Pedestrian
Microcells
2G/2.5G/3G
In-building/
Near-Building
Picocells
2.5G/3G
Vehicular Macrocells
2G/2.5G
Wi-Fi Hotspots
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DC Power System Trends
Customer Macro/Micro
Power Plant
(5-100 A)
ONUs,
Fiber Nodes,
Micro/picocells
Serving Area
Small Power Plant
(150-800 A)
CO/Hub
Large Power Plant
(2,000-10,000 A)
CEVs,
Huts,
Cell Sites
“Power plant on a pole;
power plant in a cabinet.”
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Global Telecom Power Market, 2008
$6,000
5-Year CAGR = 6%
$5,000
US$ millions
$4,000
China
$3,000
N. America
$2,000
Europe (+ MEA)
$1,000
Asia
CALA
$0
2000
2001
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2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Skyline est.
Power Product/System Features
• Energy efficiency
– 90-92+%; thermal performance
• Power density
– Smaller size, weight for same output
• Ease of handling
– Installation, maintenance
• Improved system control
– Remote operation
– Short-interval provisioning/maintenance
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Telco Decision Factors
• Packaging
– Reduced size/weight in compact package
• Performance
–
–
–
–
Increased power density
High availability/reliability
Energy efficiency
Remote intelligence, hands-off operation
• Price
– Competitive first costs
– Lower life-cycle costs
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Strategic Marketing
• Know your customers
– Network topology, customer base, key issues/drivers
• Adapt to price pressures
– Bigger carriers looking for capex, opex reductions
• Develop value-adds
– Turnkey packages - Equipment + Services in one stop
– Time = money - JIT, Inventory management
• Scope aftermarket opportunities
– Equipment add-ons, site management/maintenance
– Growing outsource opportunities
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Strategic Considerations
• It’s a small systems market!
– Access gateways/remote terminals closer to customers
< 1 mile

Small power plants will predominate
• Sell telco-by-telco
– Each situation is unique

Develop a USP for each
• Follow the money!
– Focus on key accounts


Need to assess opportunities/risks
Develop OEM channels
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