Transcript Document
Fixed Wireless Economics Duncan M. Davidson [email protected] Personal Background: SkyPilot – outdoor WiFi mesh Covad – DSL / VoIP Genuity – nationwide IP access Hughes – satellite data ATT/Intel – future RBOC network Selected VPVP Investments: Metricom – Ricochet Network DSL.Net – DSL / VoIP Aerie – nationwide IP access Broadstorm – OFDM FWB CBeyond – VoIP for SME The Promise: Wireless is *Much* Cheaper Nationwide Buildout Cost (Order of Magnitude) Fiber to home $200billion ($1,256/home) FTTN / All IP Cable $ 20 billion ($200/home) $ 2 billion ($20K/sq mile) $ 0.2 billion ($2/home) WiMAX/WiFi Cloud Customer Mesh Operator Economics Five Drivers network new subs sites subs services VoIP Spectrum VoIP is a cheap revenue kicker! Data B/S Mktg Field Rent BH CPE T3 Cust Care Nothing special here Site costs grow by ^2 POP No CPE is the new goal Amortized over lifetime (1/churn rate) Depreciated over useful life Equipment getting cheap Sites & spectrum pricey Metricom 2 Radio Poletop Technology: 2.4 GHz mesh backhaul 900 MHz fronthaul 28.8 kbps 128 kbps Proprietary CPE Economics: ¼ mile radius 7 16 sq mi $33k /sq mi + CPE Metro WiFi 1 Radio Poletop Technology: 2.4 5.8 GHz mesh backhaul 2.4 GHz fronthaul CPE required for 75% of users 330 Kbps / user Economics: < ¼ mile radius Cheaper radio BUT smaller radius 16 25 /sq mi $20k $30K/sq mi + 75% CPE 3G WiFi Star Grid Technology: 2.4 GHz mesh backhaul 2.4 GHz fronthaul 330 kbps / user No CPE required Economics: Engineer for 85%+ coverage Multi-radio units with directional antennas 25 40 /sq mi $50K $200K /sq mi WiMAX Cellular Technology: 5.8 GHz backhaul 2.5/3.5/5.8 GHz fronthaul ¼ Mile: No CPE 384 Kbps /user Mixed CPE model ½ Mile: Inside CPE* Economics: 1 Mile: Mounted CPE Multi-radio B/S with cheap CPE ½ to 1 B/S / sq mi $125K /sq mi + 80% CPE * Source: joint Intel / ArrayComm analysis of interference-limited 802.16 networks Source: WiMAX Forum. Note that B/S cost include backhaul, site planning and other network gear, and doubles for SME WiMAX Mesh (or mutant WIFi MAC) Sectorized Mesh Technology: 5.8 GHz (WiMAX*) mesh backhaul 2.4 GHz (WiFi) fronthaul 1 3 Mbps /user Timed CPE Model (as mesh builds, CPE goes away) Economics: Grows organically to 100% coverage Start thin, grow to no CPE 5 25 /sq mi $10K + CPE $20K /sq mi * Or Mutant WiFi MAC Customer Mesh Sectorized Mesh Technology: 5.8 GHz (WiMAX*) mesh backhaul 2.4 GHz (WiFi) fronthaul 1 3 Mbps /user Timed CPE Model (as mesh builds, CPE goes away) Customers are the infrastructure Economics: Start thin, grow to no CPE 5 25 /sq mi $5K $2K /sq mi * Or Mutant WiFi MAC