Transcript IBM

IBM Research – China
物联网、决策优化与电网智能化
IBM
中国研究院
尹文君 博士
© 2010 IBM Corporation
百年华诞 服务百年
智能电网
智能交通系统
测量与提高能源管理
监视和改进交通系统的使用
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减少交通阻塞
减少CO2排放
增加公共交通的使用
减少能源消耗
促进环境保护
先进的计量
提高使用效率
减少停电
改进电网管理
管理分布式能源
碳排放管理
减少和减少碳排放
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碳管理策略
碳管理智能决策
供应链管理
居所、建筑和工作场地碳排放管理
先进水管理
能源效率技术和服务
创建和管理IT系统以提高能效
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主动能源管理
利用IT技术提高基础设施的能效
IT运行效率
监视和验证能效目标
需求侧能效管理
利用实时数据监视和管理水务系统的使用
 天气事件管理
 防洪防灾管理
 用水和水质的实时监视和分析
© 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM 研究部
 About 3,000 engineers, scientists and technical professionals
 Pushing the boundaries of science and technology to make the world work better
 Helping clients, governments and universities solve challenges in business and society
Lithuania
Dublin
China
Zurich
Watson
Almaden
Shenyang
Haifa
Austin
Saudi Arabia
Tokyo
Shanghai
India
Taiwan
Hyderabad
Brazil
IBM Research Labs
IBM Research
New Presence Since 2007
3
 Natural Resources
 Smarter Devices
 Human Systems/Events
 Natural Resources
 Disaster management
Melbourne
 Healthcare/Life Sciences
© 2010 IBM Corporation
60年创新之路，覆盖信息科学、数学、物理、材料、电子工程、
行为科学等领域
1944:
Mark 1
1973:
Winchester
Disk
1997:
Copper
Interconnect
Wiring
4
1948:
SSEC
1979:
Thin Film
Recording
Heads
1998:
Silicon-on-Insulator
1956:
RAMAC
1980:
RISC
1998:
Microdrive
1957:
FORTRAN
1986:
1964:
System/360
Nobel Prizes:
Scanning
Tunneling
Microscope
2002:
Millipede
1966:
One-Device
Memory Cell
1987:
High Temperature
Superconductivity
1990:
Chemically
Amplified
Photoresists
2004:
Blue Gene
The fastest
supercomputer
in the world
1967:
Fractals
1970:
Relational
Database
1994:
SIGe
2006:
5-stage Carbon
Nanotube Ring
Oscillator
1971:
Speech
Recognition
1993: RS/6000 SP
1996,97: Deep Blue
2008:
World’s First Petaflop
Supercomputer
© 2010 IBM Corporation
获得了巨大的成就与荣誉
5名诺贝尔奖得主
Scanning Tunneling
Microscope
High
Temperature
Superconductivity
Electron
Tunneling
Effect
80余名美国国家科学院
和工程院院士
7项美国国家技术奖
Copper Chip
Technology
Silicon-onInsulator
SiGe
DRAM
330多名专业学会院士



5
AAAS
ACM
ACS



APS
AVS
ECS



5项国家科学奖
Nuclear
Magnetic
Resonance
Techniques
6项图灵奖
High Performance Computing
Basis for MRI today
10人进入美国国家
发明家名人堂
First woman recipient in the history of this
prestigious ACM award
供应链全球最佳奖
IEEE
IOP
OSA
© 2010 IBM Corporation
连续17年，IBM专利数处于全球领先地位
2009 美国专利数领先公司
5000
4914
Number of Patents
4000
70%
3000
Software
and
Services
2906
>3x
>15x
2000
1537
1273
1000
289
250
208
141
43
Oracle
Google
Accenture
0
IBM
6
Microsoft
Intel
HP
Apple
EMC
© 2010 IBM Corporation
能源是IBM重点关注的领域之一，并在诸多方面开展了大量卓有成效
的工作
解决方案开发与交付
政策与标准
思想领导
Solution Development
Research
Global IUN
Coalition
Nuclear Power
Advisory Council
Global
IUN
Coalition
Solution Delivery
Partner Ecosystem
7
© 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM正在研究业界最具挑战性的课题
Li-Air Batteries with 500 miles
range
Zero-Emissions DC
Supercomputing
& Grid Simulation
Smart Grids
O2
O2 flow
turned
off (test)
Discharge Voltage vs. Time
CO2 Commercial Polymers
135x Performance/Watt by 2019
Earth-Abundant SolnProcessed PV
CO2
Concentrator PV
Smart Buildings
Energy
Innovation
Hub
Minimodule (CIGS)
Coal
Power Plant
Polymer
Manufacturing Plant
8
© 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM与BAO
• BAO融合了IBM深厚的技术与行业功
行业洞察
底，包括来自研究部门的数学家、
高级分析专家，来自软件部门的先
进平台技术、深入的行业洞察与企
数学研究
BAO
智慧决策
业咨询经验，帮助客户获得关键的
业务洞察，使企业智能上升到一个
软件系统
新阶段。
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© 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM实施BAO的能力
1. 严格的洞察：
行业动态
2. 出色的技术：
基础软件
3. 深入研究：
先进的算法
对新目标做出严格的承诺。
为客户提供新的价值水平。
10
© 2010 IBM Corporation
OEVC的研究
A shared portfolio of analytics applications & IP designed to deliver business value
Operational Analytics
App 1 App 2
App N
Patents
Energy Services
App 1 App 2
App N
Smarter Energy Platform
Smarter Energy
Research Institute
Deep Collaboration
Smarter Energy Platform
Applications Layer
Selected Commercial SW & HW Products
Analytics Engines
Netezza
X,P,Storage
Smarter Energy Engines
(Analytics, Modeling & Optimization)
Process
Orchestration
Data
Orchestration
Models &
Analytics
Orchestration
Optimization
Engines
Analytic
Engines
Business
Intelligence
Engines
Selected IBM Research Capabilities
Deep Thunder
System of Systems Foundation
Interoperability Framework
and System Management Services
Example:
PMUs Meters SCADA Grid Ntwrk Energy Weather Wind
Markets sensors Solar
IEDs
GIS
1
World-Class
Talent &
Innovations
State-of-the-Art Computing
3
3
3
1
11
1
1
Global Membership
Leverage & Learning from Around the World
© 2010 IBM Corporation
智能电网能源价值链的变化
不断变化的能源价值链
转变后的能源价值链
传统的能源价值链
煤/天然气
储能
太阳能
电力企业
水电
核电
电力企业
风电
储能
煤/天然气
水电
太阳能
核电
风电
储能
太阳能
插电式电动汽车
消费者
潮流
定期信息流
连续信息流
风电
© 2010 IBM Corporation
实现智能电网价值链改变的发展历程
Solar
Participatory
Network
Measure
& Control
Gain
observability
over the
network and
automate control
functions
One-way
Flow
Basic Functionality
August 10 2010
Integrate consumers
and providers with the
network & enable
participation &
conversation
Converse
and share
information,
analyzing and
acting upon it
to balance
supply with
demand
given realtime
conditions
Optimize
network
functions
based on
rules &
constraints
Orchestrate
the network and its
participants to continuously
assure an optimized, secure,
balanced and reliable
network
Energy Storage
UTILITY
Wind
Coal/Natural Gas
Hydroelectric
Solar
Energy Storage
Nuclear
Wind
Solar
Energy Storage
Orchestrate
Plug-in Vehicle
Wind
Optimize
Analyze & Act
Connect Participants
Monitor & Automate (Network)
Maturity over time
Advanced Functionality
© 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM研究院从业务分析与优化（Business Analytics & Optimization, BAO）及优化
的能源价值链（Optimized Energy Value Chain，OEVC）的角度，进行智能电网
研究
智能配电网
停电计划优化方案
综合停电管理解决方案
电网风险管控方案
可再生能源发电
电网综合评估规划辅助决策方案
电力气象技术支持系统方案
风能及太阳能发电功率预测方案
微电网、电动汽车
机组启停及并网优化方案
BAO & OEVC
微电网管理系统解决方案
储能管理与优化方案
电动汽车充放电优化方案
电动汽车充换电网络规划方案
能效管理
能效评估与节能服务
物联网智能一体化平台、智能电网可视化方案
© 2010 IBM Corporation
基于物联网的智能电网平台
Smarter Energy Applications
Smarter Energy Platform
Analytics & Optimization
End-to-end QoS (Security etc.)
Development & Testing Tools
Operation & Management Tools
Analytics & Optimization
Applications
Solutions Layer
(with context specific models)
 Intermittent Renewable Power
Forecasting (Wind & Solar)
 Integrated Distributed Outage Planner
Service Platform
 Intelligent Grid Assessment & Planning
(Analytics, Modeling & Optimization)
 Phase Identification and Balancing
Smarter Energy Engines
Application Gateways
Process
Orchestration
Data
Orchestration
Models &
Analytics
Orchestration
Optimization
Engines
Analytic
Engines
Business
Intelligence
Engines
Wide Area Networks
Access Appliances
Sensor Networks
Data Aggregation
Interoperability and Integration
Sensors/Actuators
PMUs Meters SCADA Grid Ntwrk Energy Weather Wind
Markets sensors Solar
IEDs
GIS
 Transactive Control of Energy Delivery
 Condition Based Management
 Voltage stability monitoring
 Power Outage Prediction
 Managing the Dispatch of Demand
Response
 Building Energy Services
 Microgrid Design & Management
 Optimization of Electric Vehicle
Charging Station
….and many others
© 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM开发了一系列的工具、模型以推动能源价值链的转型
The Smart Grid
Maturity Model
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Innovating
Next Wave
Improvements
4
Optimizing
Enterprise
Wide
3
Integrating
Cross
Functional
2
Functional
Investing
1
Exploring
and
Initiating
Strategy,
Management
& Regulatory
Grid
Societal &
Environmental Operations
Organization
& Structure
Technology
- Overall strategy expanded due to SG
capabilities
- Optimized rate design/regulatory policy
(most beneficial regulatory treatment for
investments made)
- New business model opportunities
present themselves and are implemented
- Collaboratively engage all stakeholders
in all aspects of transformed business
- Organizational changes support new
ventures and services that emerge
- Entrepreneurial mind set, Culture of
innovation
- Autonomic computing, machine
learning
- Pervasive use and leadership on
standards
- Leader and influence in conferences
and industry groups, etc…
- Leading edge grid stability systems
- Actualize the "triple bottom line“(financial, environmental and societal)
- Customers enabled to manage their
own usage (e.g. tools and self-adaptive
networks)
- Tailored analytics and advice to
customers
- Managing distributed generation
- SG drives strategy and influences
corporate direction
- SG is a core competency
- External stakeholders share in strategy
- Willing to invest and divest, or engage in
JV and IP sharing to execute strategy
- Now enabled for enhanced mkt driven or
innovative regulatory funding schemes
- Integrated systems and control drive
organizational transformation
- End to end grid observability allows
organizational leverage by stakeholders
- Organization flattens
- Significant restructuring likely occurs
now (tuning to leverage new SG
capabilities and processes)
- Data flows end to end (e.g. customer
to generation)
- Enterprise business processes
optimized with strategic IT architecture
- Real world aware systems - complex
event processing, monitoring and control
- Predictive modeling and near real-time
simulation, analytics drives optimization
- Enterprise-wide security implemented
- Collaboration with external stakeholders
- Environmentally driven investments
(aligned with SG strategy)
- Environmental scorecard/reporting
- Programs to shave peak demand
- Ability to scale DG units
- Available active mgmt. of end user
energy uses and devices
- Completed SG strategy and business
case incorporated into corp. strategy
- SG governance model deployed
- SG Leader(s) (with authority) ensure
cross LOB application of SG
- Mandate/consensus with regulators to
make and fund SG investments
- Corp. strategy expanded to leverage
new SG enabled services or offerings
- SG is driver for org. change (addressing
aging workforce, culture issues, etc.)
- SG measures on balanced scorecard
- Performance and compensation linked
to SG success
- Consistent SG leadership cross LOBs
- Org. is adopting a matrix or overlay
structure
- Culture of collaboration and integration
- SG impacted business processes
aligned with IT architecture across LOBs
- Common architectural framework e.g.
standards, common data models, etc.
- Use of advanced intelligence/analytics
- Advanced sensor plan (e.g. PMUs)
- Implementing SG technology to
improve cross LOB performance
- Data comms. detailed strategy/tactics
- Active programs to address issue
- Segmented & tailored information for
customers – including environmental and
social benefits
- Programs to encourage off-peak usage
- Integrated reporting of sustainability and
impact
- Synthesize triple bottom line view
across LOBs
- Integrated vision & acknowledgement
- Initial strategy / business plan approved
- Initial alignment of investments to vision
- Distinct SG set-aside funding / budget
- Collaboration with regulators and
stakeholders
- Commitment to proof of concepts
- Identify initial SG leader
- New vision influences change
- Organizing more around operational
end-to-end processes (e.g. breaking silos)
- Matrix teams for planning and design of
SG initiatives across LOBs
- Evaluating performance and
compensation for Smart Grid
- Tactical IT investments aligned to
strategic IT architecture within a LOB
- Common selection process applied
- Common architectural vision and
commitment to standards across LOBs
- Conceptual data comms. strategy
- IED connectivity and business pilots
- Implementing information security
- Developing first SG vision
- Support for experimentation
- Informal discussion with regulators
- Funding likely out of existing budget
- Articulated need to change
- Executive commitment to change
- Culture of individual initiatives and
discoveries
- Knowledge growing; possibly
compartmentalized (i.e. in silos)
- Exploring strategic IT arch. for SG
- Change control process for IT for SG
- Identifying uses of technology to
improve functional performance
- Developing processes to evaluate
technologies for SG
Work & Asset Customer
Management Management
& Experience
Value Chain
Integration
示
例
- Grid employs self-healing capabilities
- Automated grid decisions system wide
(applying proven analytic based controls)
- Optimized rate design/regulatory policy
- Ubiquitous system wide dynamic control
- Optimizing the use of assets between
and across supply chain participants
- Just in time retirement of assets
- Enterprise-wide abstract representation
of assets for investment decisions
- Customer management of their end to
end energy supply and usage level
- Outage detection at residence/device
- Plug-n-play customer based generation
- Near real-time data on customer usage
- Consumption level by device available
- Mobility and CO2 programs
- Coordinated energy management and
generation throughout the supply chain
- Coordinated control of entire energy
assets
- Dispatchable recourses are available for
increasingly granular market options
(e.g. LMP – Locational Marginal Pricing)
- Integration into enterprise processes
- Dynamic grid management
- Tactical forecasts based on real data
- Information available across enterprise
through end-to-end observability
- Automated decision making within
protection schemes (leveraging increased
analytics capabilities and context)
- Enterprise view of assets: location,
status, interrelationships, connectivity and
proximity
- Asset models reality based (real data)
- Optimization across fleet of assets
- CBM and predictive management on
key components
- Efficient inventory management utilizing
real asset status and modeling
- Usage analysis within pricing programs
- Circuit level outage detection/notification
- Net billing programs in the home
- Automated response to pricing signals
- Common customer experience
integrated across all channels
- Recent customer usage data (e.g. daily)
- Behavior modeling augments customer
segmentation
- Energy resources dispatchable/tradable,
utility realizes gain from ancillary services
(e.g. power on demand)
- Portfolio optimization modeling
expanded for new resources and real
time markets.
- Ability to communicate with HAN (Home
Area Network), incl. visibility and control
of customer large demand appliances
- Sharing data across functions/systems
- Implementing control analytics to
support decisions & system calculations
- Move from estimation to fact-based
planning
- The customer meter becomes an
essential grid management “sensor”
- New process being defined due to
increased automation and observability
- Component performance and trend
analysis
- Developing CBM (Condition Based
Mgmt.) on key components
-Integrating RAM to asset mgmt, mobile
work force and work order creation
- Tracking inventory, source to utilization
- Modeling asset investments for key
components based on SG data
- High degree customer segmentation
- Two-way meter, remote disconnect &
connect, and remote load control
- Outage detection at substation
- Common customer experience
- Customer participation in DR enabled
- New interactive products/services
- Predictive customer experience
- Integrated resource plan includes new
targeted resources and technologies (e.g.
DR, DG, volt/VAR)
- Enabling market and consumption
information for use by customer energy
mgmt systems
- New resources available as substitute
for market products to meet reliability
objectives
- Established energy efficiency programs
for customers
- “Triple bottom line" view – (financial,
environmental and societal)
- Environmental proof of concepts
underway
- Consumption information provided to
customers
- Initial distribution to sub-station
automation projects
- Implementing advanced outage
restoration schemes
- Piloting remote monitoring on key assets
(RAM) for manual decision making
- Expanding and investing in extended
communications networks
- Developing mobile workforce strategy
- Approach for tracking, inventory and
event history of assets under
development
- Developing an integrated view of GIS
and RAM with location, status and nodal
interconnectivity
- Piloting AMI/AMR
- Modeling of reliability issues to drive
investments for improvements
- Piloted remote disconnect/connect
- More frequent customer usage data
- Assessing impact of new services and
delivery processes (e.g. HAN)
- Introducing support for home energy
management systems
- Redefine value chain to include entire
eco-system (RTOs, customers, suppliers)
- Pilot investments to support utilization of
a diverse resource portfolio
- Programs to promote customer DG
- Awareness of issues and utility’s role in
addressing the issues
- Environmental compliance
- Initiating conservation, efficiency,
“green”
- Renewables program
- Exploring new sensors, switches,
comms. devices and technologies
- Proof of concepts / component testing
- Exploring outage & distribution mgmt.
linked to sub-station automation
- Building business case at functional
level
- Safety & physical security
- Conducting value analysis for new
systems
- Exploring RAM (Remote Asset
Monitoring), beyond SCADA
- Exploring proactive/predictive asset
maintenance
- Exploring using spatial view of assets
- Research on how to reshape the
customer experience through SG
- Broad customer segmentation (e.g.
geography, income)
- Load management in place for C&I
- Reactive customer experience
- Identified assets and programs within
value chain to facilitate load management
programs
- Identified distributed generation sources
and existing capabilities to support
- Develop strategy for diverse resource
portfolio
?
当前水平
期望水平
智能电网成熟度模型：评估智能电网
当前的状态，明确未来的发展方向
组件化业务模型：描述公用事业企
业应具备的业务功能
Application Neutral
Process Management
Routing
Pub/Sub
Dynamic crossreferencing, etc.
Aggregation
Compensating Transactions,
etc.
Service
Service
SAP XI/PI
Data
Mapping
!
Metering
SAP Solutions
Meter
SAP NetWeaver
碳排放模型：分析不同场景下的碳排
放量
16
SAP ERP
SAP SCM
SAP PM
SAP CRM
Gateway
Service
Web Services
Repository &
Management
Transaction
E2E
Monitoring
Auditing
Service
Information
Management
Business Events
Monitoring
Validation
Error handling
Service
Business Rules
ESB
Complex
Event
Proven & Stable
Messaging
Service
Business
Integration
Workflow/ Human
Task
Service
Partner Systems
Service
Service
Sensor Network
Data
Warehouse
Mining
EDI
XML
Cable
Station
Statistics
BI.
FTP
etc.
Swich
etc.
Service
SCADA
E-Energy模型：与德国政府合作开
发的基于信息和通信技术的未来能
源系统的模型
© 2010 IBM Corporation
什么使 IBM 与众不同？
 IBM拥有3000多名业界领先的经验丰富的专业人员，
全面的技术，以及成本效益方法论，能够帮助公用
事业公司改造价值链，实现商业价值
 IBM可靠的能源与公用事业解决方案组合是基于我们
在世界各地实施解决方案所获得的经验，以及
SAFE——基于SOA的E&U行业框架——使公用事业
公司加快开发和交付新功能和新产品的速度。
 IBM支持采用世界各地的智能电网标准，与政策制定
者合作，帮助规划产业的未来，以及在前沿技术的
创新
 IBM的卓越中心，概念验证和研究， First of a Kind
项目验证创新成果，证明解决方案的实施能力
 IBM的解决方案合作伙伴网络为集成技术的组合提供
选择和灵活性
© 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM通过积极领导主要行业组织推动产业转型
GridWise 联盟是全球领先的宣传组织，致力于使世界电力系统现代
化，涵盖了整个能源供应链。
GridWise 架构理事会由美国能源部组建，以促进和实现全国电力系
统各个电力公司之间的互操作性。
能源咨询委员会出版了“智能电网：新能源经济的推动者”，以及
就如何发展一个协调、经济、高效的智能电网战略向美国能源部提
出建议。
Intellect 通过与监管机构，市场上被管制的和其他利益相关者的接
洽，代表了信息和通信技术，电子和通信公司在公用事业行业（如
供水，燃气和电力）的利益。
© 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM是许多国际智能电网组织的主要成员和积极推动者，在行业标准和发展
方面发挥作用
 Chair, GridWise Alliance
 Chair, GridWise Architecture Council
 Chair-Elect, Architecture Committee for NIST Smart Grid
Interoperability Panel
 Member, US DOE Electricity Advisory Committee
 Sub-committee Chair, Smart Grid, Electricity Advisory
Committee
 Member, IEC Technical Committee 8 on system issues in
electric grid
 Member, ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 25 Working Group 1
 Member, IEC 57 Working Group 8 on Distribution Management
 Chair-Elect, IEC 61968 Part 6 standards stream
 Vice Chairman, World Energy Council Interconnectivity
Working Group
 Member, UCA® International Users Group including OpenHAN,
OpenAMI, Common Information Model and IEC61850
 Member, OASIS Energy Management Information Exchange
and Energy Interoperation Technical Committees
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