Transcript WTPF on IP Telephony

WTPF – 2001
On IP Telephony
Saburo TANAKA
Councellor, TSB/ITU
[email protected]
Note: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership.
WTPF - IP Telephony
Agenda
 Overview of WTPF
 Purpose
 Agenda for WTPF
 What are the issues?
 What is IP Telephony
 Opportunities and challenges
 Policy and Regulatory issues
 What will be the impact of IP Telephony?
 In developed countries
 In developping countries
 Results of WTPF
2
WTPF - IP Telephony
3
Overview of WTPF
(Held in Geneva from 7-9 March 2001)
 Purpose
 To provide a forum for discussion and for exchange
views
 WTFP shall not produce prescriptive regulatory
outcome but prepare report
 The general implication of IP Telephony
 Actions to assist Member States & Sector Members to
facilitate adaption to the new environment
 Action to assist MS & SM in meeting the human
resource development
 Attendance
 WTFP was attended by 757 persons (121 MS including
25 LDC, 99 SM)
WTPF - IP Telephony
What is IP Telephony?
 Definition
 IP Telephony: a generic term for the transmission of
voice, fax over packet-switched IP-based networks
 Voice over IP: The transmission of voice over circuit
employing Internet Protocol
 Internet Telephony: Transmission of voice over the
Internet
A wide variety of services can be provided using
combination of: the type of terminal devices used, where
the gateways are located and the underlying means of
transmission.
WTPF had only “working definition” and it requested ITU-T
to define more clear definition on “IP Telephony” and
“Internet Telephony”.
4
A call from the GSTN to an IP terminal
GSTN
IP network
IP access
POP(Gateway)
H.323.
Normally a local call,
handled by Telco A
Carrier Domain
International
boundary
International geographic part
of the call. There is no 1 to 1
correspondance to normal PSTN
distance
IP-Based network domain
Te r
m
na t
i
ng
i
Ne t
wor
k
PSTN/
I SDN
P
/ LM
N
I PNe t
wor k
I
W
F
Loc a or
l di
sb
i
r
t ut
ed
unc t
f
on
i
Loc a or
l di
sb
i
r
t ut
ed
unc t
f
on
i
I
W
F
Cal
ni
i
l
at
t
e df
r om
PSTN/
I SDN/
PLM
N
o PSTN/
t
I SDN/
PLM
N
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I SDN
P
/ LM
N
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i i
r
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ng
i
Ne t
wor
k
T 0 2 0 8 5 0
1 0 6 1 4 7
(
)
Call from International Telecommunication Network
(ITN) to another ITN via IP-based Network
Call from IP Network User to the ITN
H
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rI
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ter
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Call from ITN to an IP-based Network user
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ork
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ibuted
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unction
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rom PST
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106147
(
)
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te r
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Call from an IP-based Network user to
another IP-based Network user via an ITN
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unction
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unction
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0
1
5
8
2
T
1. Computer to computer
Internet
Phone Gateway Computer
Phone Gateway Computer
 Needs similarly equipped Internet users (e.g., IP
telephony software, multimedia PC etc), both
logged-on simultaneously
 Main motivation: avoidance of usage-based
telephone charges
 Software vendors include VocalTec, Camelot etc
 Market: Less than 15 million potential users?
2a.
Computer to
telephone or
fax
Internet
Phone Gateway
Computer
Desktop PC
Public Switch
Telephone
 Suitably equipped Internet users able to call any
telephone user (not necessarily vice versa)
 Main motivation: Reduction of international
telephone charges
 Service providers include IDT (Net2Phone), FWD
 Market potential : Sending <15 million equipped
users, receiving >800 million telephone users
2b.
Computer
to service
provider
telephone
Internet
Web Server
Desktop PC
Public Switch
Phone Gateway
Computer at
Service Provider
 Suitably equipped Internet users browse Website
and choose voice/video connection option
 Main motivation: Service provider can interact
directly with potential clients, via voice or other
electronic means
 Market potential: Integration of sales-oriented web
site and telemarketing. Pornography, Gambling ...
3. Telephone
to telephone
(fax to fax)
via Internet
Internet
Phone Gateway
Computer
Telephone
Phone Gateway
Computer
Public Switch
Telephone
 Any telephone user to any other
 Main motivation: Accounting rate bypass, market
entry for non-facilities-based carriers
 Potential service providers include any PTO with
settlement payments deficit (e.g., US = US$5.7bn)
 Market potential : 850+ million telephone users
Audio Demonstrations
 Samples of Encoded Speech
 Packet-Loss Effects
 Wideband Capabilities
Samples of Encoded Speech
(1) PCM at 64 kbit/s - as a reference
(2) 8 kbit/s speech codec
 “Rice is often served in round bowls.”
 “The soft cushion broke the man’s fall.”
 “The small pup gnawed a hole in the sock.”
 “The meal was cooked before the bell
rang.”
WTPF - IP Telephony
14
Opportunities and challenges
 Opportunities
 Unifying platform for emerging converged network
 Reduce prices to consumers and the costs of market
entry for operators
 In terms of volume of traffic carried and level of
investment committed
 Challenges
 Undermine the pricing structure of the incumbent
Public Telecommunication Operators (PTOs)
 Transition to IP-based networks also poses significant
human ressource development challenges
WTPF - IP Telephony
15
IP-based networks = the technology
of choice?
 Several major PTOs will migrate all their
international traffic onto IP
 The apparently lower cost of moving traffic over
IP-based network
 Necessity in the age of the Information Society
 May serve as a dynamic stimulus to economic
growth
 To offer much wider and diverse range of multimedia services and innovative applications
 But how about for developing countries?
 No answer, study requested to ITU-T
The influence of IP Telephony on price
 IDC forecasts that “Web Talk”
revenues will reach US$16.5 bn
by 2004 with
135 billion mins of traffic
 Gartner Group forecast that IP
Telephony and competition in
Europe will reduce prices by
75% by 2002
 IP Telephony as % of all
int’l calls in 2004
 Tarifica forecast 40%
 Analysys forecast 25%
 In developing countries, the
majority of IP Telephony calls
are incoming
16.5
“Web Talk”
revenues,
US$bn
0.208
2000
Source: IDC.
2004
Minutes of use by month,
Hongkong SAR ('000s)
1'500
1'250
1'000
Dial-up Internet
(via PSTN)
750
500
250
International voice
(incoming and outgoing)
0
4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 02
98 98 98 98 98 99 99 99 99 99 99 00
Source: OFTA (www.ofta.gov.hk)
Deutsche Telekom
Percentage change in call
volume (minutes) 1998/99
86.3%
36.0%
-7.1%
-2.1%
Domestic
longdistance
Int'l
outgoing
calls
Source: Deutsche Telekom annual report.
7.2%
Local calls
Calls to
mobile
networks
Calls to
Internet (TOnline)
40%
35%
Dial-up Internet traffic as % of
total traffic minutes
Telia (Sweden)
38%
30%
25%
27%
19.5%
20%
15%
12%
10%
5%
0%
Telenor (Norway)
18%
Telecom Portugal
8.5%
1998
1999
Source: PTO annual reports. Note: For Telia, Internet traffic as % of local minutes. For others, as % of total
Infrastructure capacity and costs,
TransAtlantic cables, 1988-2001
1'000
Circuit costs,
falling by 72% p.a .
10'000
1'000
100
100
10
Circuit capacity,
rising by 89% p.a.
1
Source:
Note:
100'000
10
1
TAT-8 PTAT-1 TAT-10 TAT- AC-1 TAT-14 Flag
1988 1989 1992 12/13 1999 2000 Atlantic
2001
1996
ITU, adapted from FCC.
Circuit costs assume a usage level of 18%, a compression level of 5:1 and a life-time of 20 years.
Circuit capacity (64 kbit/s, 000s)
Circuit cost p.a. (US$)
10'000
Challenges
Revenue gain and revenue loss
Accounting Rate
IP-Telephony
PTO in
Developed
country
Collect
US$ 1.00 from user
Pays US $ 0.55
settlement.
Retains US $ 0.45
Collect
US$ 1.00 from user
Pays US$ 0.30 to ISP for
terminating call.
Retains US$ 0.70
PTO in
Developing
country
Receives US $ 0.55
settlement.
Receives US $ 0.02
local call charge.
-0.53 US$
0
Receives 0.30 US $ for
terminating charge
Pays 0.02 US $ for local
call.
Retains 0.28 US $
+0.28 US$
ISP in
Developing
country
Difference
+0.25
US$
WTPF - IP Telephony
22
Different Policy and Regulatory
approaches
 Possible government policy objectives for IP-Teleph.










Universal Service/Universal Access
Affordable telecommunications services
Tariff re-balancing
Ensuring a level-playing field for competitors and new entrants
Promotion of new technologies and services
Stimulating investment in network build-out and new services
Impact on revenue streams of incumbent operators
Technology transfer
Human resource development
Economic growth as a whole and in particular in the
communications sector.
WTPF - IP Telephony
23
The general picture
At present, several broad national policy emerge
 First, there are countries that include some or all
forms of IP Telephony within their regulatory system
 Second, there are countries that prohibit IPTelephony
 Third, there are countries that do not regulate IP
Telephony
 Lastly, there are countries where the situation is
uncertain or the issue remains to be formally
addressed.
Status of IP Telephony in ITU Member States
No specific prohibition for
voice/fax over the Public
Internet or over IP-based
networks
Angola, Antigua and Barbuda,1Argentina, Bhutan, Congo,Costa Rica,
Dominican Republic, Estonia2, Gambia, Guatemala, Guyana,
Madagascar, Malta, Mexico, Mongolia2, Nepal, New Zealand, Poland,
Slovak Republic, St Lucia1, St Vincent3, Tonga, Uganda, United
States4, Viet Nam
Permitted or not regulated, if
not real-time (not considered
EU Countries5, Hungary (if delay =/>250ms and packet loss >1%),
voice telephony)
Iceland
Permitted. If real-time, subject
to light conditions
(notification/registration may be
required, other basic provisions
of voice regulation
Czech Republic, Hong kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Switzerland
Permitted. If real-time, treated
similarly to other voice
telecommunications services
(licensable, subject to more
extensive provisions of voice
regulation)
Australia, Canada, China, Korea (Rep.), Malaysia
Countries that prohibit the use
of both the Public Internet and
IP-based networks for voice or
fax services
Albania, Azerbaijan, Belize, Botswana, Cambodia, Cameroon, Côte
d’Ivoire, Croatia, Cuba, Ecuador, Eritrea, Gabon, Indonesia, India, Israel,
Jordan, Latvia, Lithuania, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar
Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Paraguay, Qatar, Romania, Senegal,
Seychelles, Swaziland ,Thailand, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia,
Turkey
Countries that permit voice/fax
over IP based networks but
prohibit over public Internet
Cyprus, Ethiopia, Kenya, Peru, Philippines
WTPF - IP Telephony
Other Policy and Regulatory issues
 License restriction
 A few countries expressly license PTOs to
provide IP Telephony -
 Regulatory distinction
 Type of service, Voice or Data, Mode of
network transmission, Quality of service
 Ffunctional equivalence
 Technological Neutrality
 Impact of IP Telephony on Universal
Service/Access
25
Developing country concerns
 Developing countries receive no international
settlement payments for IP traffic
 Increasingly, incoming IP traffic includes IP telephony
and fax traffic which they must terminate
 They must pay to peer with US/EU backbone
 Peering costs are rising as IP traffic continues to
grow exponentially
 They must pay both half-circuits of the
International Private Line to the foreign ISP
 Even though traffic flows in both directions over the
circuit, once it is established
 Telephone and fax traffic shifting to the Internet
 What will replace the US$7 bn from settlements?
Pricing IP for voice services
 In competitive, low-price markets
 Main market opportunity for IP Telephony is for
value-added services, e.g., unified messaging
 In markets in transition to competition
 IP Telephony offers a route towards early
introduction of competition and creates downward
pressure on prices
 In high-price, monopoly markets
 Where permitted, IP Telephony creates opportunities
for low-cost calls
 Even if not permitted, IP Telephony is widely used to
reduce costs of international call termination
IP Telephony wants to be “free”
5
Users
300
4
minutes
250
200
3
150
2
100
1
50
0
0
18-Oct- 22-Nov- 10-Dec- 12-Jan- 04-Apr99
99
99
99
00
Source: ITU, adapted from DialPad.com press releases.
Call minutes (million)
Registered users (million)
Cumulative number of Dialpad users & call minutes
Since launch on 18 Oct. 1999
6
350
Opinion A
(The general implication of IP Telephony)
WTPF is of view that
 IP Telephony application are best supplied in a market in which
consumers have choice
 Government regulation should aim to foster an effective competitive
environment
 Regulation may be appropriate where there is market failure or when
public interest cannot be adequately met by industry
 Member States should examine the implication of applying existing
regulatory regime to IP-based services and application
WTPF invites
 MS & SM to consider the possibility of the introduction and of the
deployment of IP technologies and IP application
 All MS to review their current regulatory framework with a view to:
– Encourage investment
– Achieving public policy goals in the context of a converged communication service
environment
– Considering the possibility of opening their communication services market with
respect to IP Telephony by adopting a competition oriented approach
Opinion B
(Action to assist MS & SM in adopting to the changes in the
telecommunication environment due to the emergence of IP Telephony)
WTPF invite the Secretary General and the Director of the Bureaux
 To promote understanding of the potential benefits of IP-based
technologies and IP application to assist MS &SM, particularly
developing countries
(i) by updating previous IP Telephony case studies;
(ii) by carrying out cost studies;
(iii) by helping to attract investment and promoting the use of
international lending, Bureaux
 In the pursuit of the above, to conduct regional workshops in partnership
with Member States and Sector Members
(i) how telecommunication infrastructure build-out;
(ii) technologies that can support IP Telephony;
(iii) how to create an environment that will attract investment;
(iv) issues such as cost structures, pricing mechanisms, interconnection,
numbering, quality of service and market consideration, etc.
Opinion C
(meeting the human resource development challenges)
WTPF invites the ITU, in particularly ITU-D

to facilitate the sharing of knowledge and views, by Member States and Sector
Members
Invites ITU-D






1 to encourage Member States and Sector Members to create integrated human
resources transition plans;
2 to assist Member States and Sector Members in evaluating and identifying new and
changing human resources requirements;
3 to draw upon existing BDT research and skilled personnel to identify:
(i) HRD/HRM and training issues related to network evolution;
(ii) HRD/HRM and training issues related to new technologies, including IP;
(iii) skills leading to the creation of a business environment that will attract
infrastructure investment,
Invites ITU-T and ITU-R….
Invites Sector Members…
Invites SM & MS….
invites ….
Opinion D
(Essential studies by the ITU to facilitate the introduction of IP
Telephony)
WTPF invites the three ITU Sectors







each, for matters within its competence, and based on contributions from ITU Member States and
Sector Members, to initiate new studies or pursue current ones, and to present any findings as
soon as possible, to facilitate the introduction of “IP telephony” on a global basis, particularly with
respect to:
1. in ITU-R,
compatibility and inter-operability of radio access between IP networks and PSTNs,
2. in ITU-T,
a) a clear working definition of “IP telephony” and “Internet telephony”;
b) whether, and to what extent:
i) to require compatibility of “IP telephony” with the existing international telephone service;
ii) compatibility should also include, but not be limited to, aspects of performance;
c) whether, and to what extent:
i) to consider the possibilities of how “IP telephony” can be a part of national PSTNs;
ii) aspects of traffic identification and measurement;
d) identifying the cost elements of international IP connectivity
3. In ITU-D,
taking account of the need of developing countries to plan a strategy of migration for their
networks into IP-based networks