Transcript Watson

<Name and Title>
Putting IBM Watson to Work
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
On February 14, 2011, IBM Watson changed history . . .
Word spread virally of the victory with Twitter reaching
11.7M, 30,121 blog mentions, and 15,025 forum posts
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Agenda
What is IBM Watson and why is it important?
How is IBM putting Watson to work?
What can we expect in the future?
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
On a smarter planet, everyone is connected to everything
Instrumented
Over 10 billion CPUs were
produced in 2008, up
1000% in 8 years.
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+
Interconnected
2 billion people will be
on the Web by 2011...
with a trillion connected
objects.
+
Intelligent
Stockholm leverages
GPS data to predict traffic
– reducing congestions
and emissions.
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Businesses on a Smarter Planet are “dying of thirst in an
ocean of data”
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90%
80%
20%
of the world’s
data was created
in the last two
years
of the world’s
data today is
unstructured
is the amount of
available data
traditional systems
leverages
1 in 2
83%
54%
business leaders don’t
have access to data
they need
of CIO’s cited BI and
analytics as part of their
visionary plan
of companies use
analytics for competitive
advantage
Source: GigaOM, Software Group, IBM Institute for Business Value"
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Healthcare Industry is beset with some of the most complex
information challenges we collectively face
Medical information
is doubling every 5
years, much of
which is
unstructured
81% of physicians
report spending 5
hours or less per
month reading
medical journals
“Medicine has become too complex (and only) about 20% of the knowledge
clinicians use today is evidence-based”
- Steven Shapiro Chief Medical and Scientific Officer, UPMC
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Source: International Journal of Circumpolar Health, DoctorDirectory.com, Institute for Medicine"
Today’s business challenges are causing organizations to
rethink what it will take to get ahead tomorrow
•
•
•
•
•
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Traditional IT
Structured data (local)
Deterministic Applications
Search Oriented
Small Data
Machine Language
Emerging IT
• Structured & unstructured (global)
• Probabilistic Applications
• Discovery Oriented
• Small and Big Data
• Natural Language
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
So why is it so hard for computers to understand humans?
• Noses that run and feet that smell?
• Ship by truck and send cargo by ship?
• How can a slim chance and a fat chance be the same,
while a wise man and a wise guy are opposites?
• How can a house can burn up as it burns down?
• Why do we fill in a form by filling it out?
• How does an alarm go off by going on?
Structured Data
Welch ran
this?
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Person
Organization
L. Gerstner
IBM
J. Welch
GE
W. Gates
Microsoft
Unstructured Data
“If leadership is an art
then surely Jack Welch
has proved himself a
master painter during his
tenure at GE.”
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
What if an enterprise had all the answers it needs to succeed?
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Brief History of IBM Watson
IBM
Research
Project
(2006 – )
Jeopardy!
Grand
Challenge
(Feb 2011)
Watson
for
Healthcare
(Aug 2011 –)
Watson
for Financial
Services
(Mar 2012 – )
Watson
Industry
Solutions
(2012 – )
Cross-industry
Applications
Expansion
Commercialization
Demonstration
R&D
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
IBM Watson brings together a set of transformational
technologies to drive optimized outcomes
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1 Understands
natural
language and
human speech
Generates and
evaluates
hypothesis for
better outcomes
99%
60%
10%
3 Adapts and
Learns from
user selections
and responses
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…built on a massively parallel probabilistic
evidence-based architecture optimized for POWER7
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Moving beyond
Jeopardy!
presents a
new set ofachallenges
Bringing
Watson
to market
requires
significant engineering effort
Watson at Play
1 User
1 Question
Max. input – 2 sentences
Stateless
Focus on Top Response
5+ Days Retrain
Supporting evidence not present
Text-only input
Q&A Environment
Basic security
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Watson at Work
1000s Concurrent Users
Compound questions
Extended text input
Statefull
Focus on top Responses
Dynamic content ingestion
Supporting evidence integral
Text, tables and images as input
Q&A + Case Mgmt.
Heightened security (e.g. HIPAA)
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
IBM Watson goes to work in Healthcare
What if …
healthcare could leverage the latest
insights improving the quality of patient
care while lowering costs?
WellPoint is doing it!
• Deep diagnosis and treatment assistance for
physicians
• Improved clinical outcomes based on confidence
based responses
• Extended data assessment based on research,
clinical, medical, market and patient data
• Applied learning based on action taken and
outcome derived
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Working Together to Beat Cancer
Cancer is an insidious disease and the second highest cause of death
1 in 4
individuals will die from cancer
3X
rate cancer cost climbs vs. std.
health costs or 15-18% / yr.
X
+
20%
263.8B
of cancer cases receive the
wrong diagnosis initially with
some as high as 44%
overall costs of cancer in
the US in 2010
✔ ✔
✔ ✔
✔ ✔ ✔
$$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$$
Source: American Cancer Society, National Health Institute
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IBM
+ +
IBM
Working Together to Beat Cancer
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
difficulty swallowing
fever
dry mouth
thirst
anorexia
frequent urination
dizziness
no abdominal pain
no back pain
no cough
no diarrhea
Oral cancer
Bladder cancer
Hemochromatosis
Purpura
Graves’ Disease
(Thyroid Autoimmune)
cutaneous lupus
osteoporosis
hyperlipidemia
frequent UTI
hypothyroidism
Patient
Findings Medications History
Family
History
Patient
Family
History
Medications
Symptoms
Findings
History
Symptoms
Putting the proper pieces together at the point of impact can be
life changing
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Diagnosis Models
Confidence
Renal Failure
UTI
Diabetes
Influenza
Hypokalemia
Esophagitis
Alendronate
pravastatin
levothyroxine
hydroxychloroquine
urine dipstick:
leukocyte esterase
supine 120/80 mm HG
heart rate: 88 bpm
urine culture: E. Coli
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
From battling humans on Jeopardy! to changing the way the
world thinks, acts, and operates
Healthcare
Financial Services
Diagnostic/treatment assistance,
evidenced-based insights,
collaborative medicine
Investment and retirement
planning, institutional trading
and decision support
Contact Center
Government
Call center and tech support
services, enterprise knowledge
management, consumer insight
Public safety, improved
information sharing, security,
fraud and abuse prevention
IBM Watson and Smarter Analytics have the capabilities to
address grand business and societal challenges
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Learn more at:
www.ibmwatson.com.
www.facebook.com/ibmwatson.
www.twitter.com/ibmwatson
(Tweet #ibmwatson )
www.youtube.com/ibm
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Back up
•Finance
•Demo
•Videos
•How Watson works
•Cloud
•Ready for Watson
•Big data
•Smarter analytics
•Cognitive systems
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Watson for FSS slides
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Financial services firms are beset with some of the most
complex information challenges we collectively face
 Reuters publishes the
equivalent of 9000 pages
of financial news every
day1
 Five new research
documents come out of
Wall Street every minute1
 Asset managers receive
up to1,000 e-mails daily1
“The sheer amount of newsflow has made it difficult for
people to take positions confidently”
Sources: 1 - www.financial-domain.info/integrating-qualitative-and-quantitative-information/
2- IBM Client experience with ForEx traders
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3 – Derived from NYSE data
-Adam Margolis, Citi trader
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Banks struggle to engage customers in a meaningful and optimal
way to foster loyalty and growth
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✔
Retails banking attrition rates
average 15% per year creating
a formidable challenge
LOST
REVENUE
✔
Retail banks only have 25%
share of wallet for the
average customer
SUBOPTIMIZED
OPPORTUNITY
✔
Over $400B was spent by
banks in information
technology last year
✔
Up to 25% of data is wrong
in a bank's customer
information system
$$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$
?
?
?
?
SUBSTABTIAL
EXPENSE
POOR CUSTOMER
SATISFACTION
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Putting the proper pieces together at point of impact makes for
better bottom-line decisions
Market Data
Infrastructure
Client
Go
Trader
Client
Trader
to market
has
requests
explains
knows
expressed
changes
models
that
that
trader
factor
earnings
CETP
can
interest
materially
evaluate
into
studies
sustainability
in
both
learning
are
Pharma
current
affect
just  CETP Drug Studies
downstream
one
may
more
companies
cash
factor
yield
about
flows
insight
in earnings
revenues
earnings
and
withinto  CETP News
 Regulatory Environment
long
growth
cholesterylester
production
term
quality
impact
stability
on
Earnings Sustainability
transfer
company
protein
upside
(CETP)  Operating Margin
drugs in pipeline
 Excess Cash Margin
 Accuracy of Earnings Forecast
 One Time Revenue
 One Time Expenses
 Leadership/Exec Turnover
Earnings Growth
Scenario
CETP
Drug
Human
Go
To Market
Infrastructure
One
Time
Studies
Capital
Expenses
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 Time Series Sales Trend
 Change in Receivables minus
Change in Sales
 Change in Inventory minus
Change in Sales
 Human Capital
 Infrastructure
 Go To Market
Earnings
Quality
Acme Pharma
Pharma, Inc.
Pharma United
Pharma, USA
 Top Confidence: Pharma Inc.
 Final
Top Confidence:
Top Confidence:
Acme
Pharma
AcmeAcme
Inc
 Acme: Failure at stage 2 trial;
 Pharma
Acme:
Class
260
New
Inc:new
jobs
plant
Partnership
action
listed
opening
suit
their
going
website,
away
beginning
stage
1oniswith
which
up
30Started
from
should
dissolved
last
eliminate
quarter
one-time
 distributor
United:
Infrastructure
outsourcing
Inc:
Phase
3 trial;
7 completed
expense
 Big:
United:
Alliance
Minor with
layoffs
major HMO
studies
 Pharma
Inc:
Setting
aside
fund3for
United:
Phase
2 trials
started;
USA:
Major
layoffs
patent
infringement
completed
studies; claim
recruiting for 4th
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
 USA: Phase 1 trials complete
IBM Watson Retail Banking Advisor
Conceptual Future State Process
Client Care
Life Events
Watson
Client
Insight
Higher
Education
1
Customer agent
consults Watson to
anticipate needs of
client based on
profile and impending
life events
Retirement
Employment
2
Customer agent suggests
appropriate portfolio
offerings based on market
information & client needs
Systems
of
Records
Previous
Contact
News
Feeds
Portfolio
Preference
360o view
of client
Preferences
Value of
Customer
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Marriage
Appetite
For
Risk
Watson Solutions
for Financial Services
Analyst
Reports
Industry
Reports
360o view
of portfolio
Corporate
Reports
Portfolio
Risk
Research
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Demo slides
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
IBM Watson
Oncology Advisor
IBM Confidential: References to potential future products are subject to the Important Disclaimer provided earlier in the presentation
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Screenshots, links, and instructions for suggested videos
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Opening Video:
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Watson at Work
in Healthcare
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One minute “voice of the MD” video
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How Watson works slides
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
IBM Watson represents a new class of industry specific analytical
solutions
WATSON
NOW
NLP & Content
Analytics
Source
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Big Data
Model
Advisor Solutions
Knowledge
529 Plans
Retirement
Retail
Machine
Learning
Institutional
Advisor Solutions
Diabetes
Cardiac
Oncology
Utilization
Advisor Solutions
Watson for
Industry
Watson for
Contact Center
Help Desk
Watson For
Financial Svcs.
Call Center
Watson for
Healthcare
FUTURE
FUTURE
Reporting &
Analysis
Train
Technical
NOW
Data
Warehouses
Workload
Optimized
Systems
Learn
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
IBM Watson a look behind the scenes
System Specifications
2880 Processing Cores
90 IBM P750
Servers
IBM Technology Depth
Content
Analytics
Business
Analytics
16 Terabytes Memory
(RAM) – 20TB Disk
Big Data
80 Teraflops (80
trillion operations
per second)
Workload Optimized
Systems
Databases /
Data
Warehouses
In the past 5 years IBM has spent over $14B in analytical
acquisitions and $6B in R&D annually
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Informed Decision Making: Search vs. Watson
Decision Maker
Has Question
Search Engine
Distills to 2-3 Keywords
Finds Documents containing Keywords
Reads Documents, Finds
Answers
Delivers Documents based on Popularity
Finds & Analyzes Evidence
Watson
Decision Maker
Understands Question
Asks NL Question
Produces Possible Answers & Evidence
Considers Answer & Evidence
Analyzes Evidence, Computes Confidence
Delivers Response, Evidence & Confidence
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
How Watson Works: parse request, generate hypotheses,
evaluate evidence, and respond with confidence
Question
Analyze
question
100’s
Multiple
sources
Interpretations
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Balance
& Combine
Generate
hypotheses
100’s
Possible
Answers
1000’s of
Pieces of
Evidence
Collect and
evaluate
evidence
Weigh and
combine for final
confidences
100,000’s Scores
from many Deep
Analysis Algorithms
Answer &
Confidence
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Where to put Watson to work
Watson Capabilities
1
Natural language
understanding
 Problems that require the
analysis of unstructured data
2
Broad domain of
unstructured data
3
Hypothesis generation and
confidence scoring
 Critical questions that require
decision support with
prioritized recommendations
and evidence
4
5
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Best Fit for Watson
Iterative
Question/Answering
Machine
learning
 High value in decision
support
 Leverage scale to maximize
machine learning and
improve outcomes over time
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
DeepQA: Incremental Progress in Answering Precision on the
Jeopardy Challenge: 6/2007-11/2010
IBM Watson
Playing in the Winners Cloud
100%
90%
v0.8 11/10
80%
V0.7 04/10
Precision
70%
v0.6 10/09
v0.5 05/09
60%
v0.4 12/08
50%
v0.3 08/08
v0.2 05/08
40%
v0.1 12/07
30%
20%
10%
Baseline 12/06
0%
0%
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10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% Answered
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Watson’s delivery as a service through cloud
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
IBM Watson Is Delivered as a Service Accessible through the Cloud
User
Answers
Questions
Public Cloud
IBM Watson as a Service
IBM Platform
Metadata
(e.g. Query Pattern, Data Models, Ontologies)
Private Cloud
Algorithms
Algorithms
Algorithms
Algorithms
Public Info
3rd Party
Data
Client Info
IBM Data
Hybrid IT
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Watson is delivered as a value based service offering
Dynamic Capacity
Hybrid Delivery
Automate and control
service provisioning
Extend & integrate
on-premise solution
with cloud offering
Flexible Consumption
Time to Value
Support alternative
delivery and pricing
models
Enable incremental
automation and
Business agility
Dynamic
Capacity
Hybrid
Delivery
⌘
Flexible
Consumption
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Time to Value
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Ready for Watson
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Ready for Watson is a program designed to prepare and accelerate
client development toward a Watson Solution deployment
1
2
3
4
5
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Use Case
Alignment
 Eg. Diagnosis & Treatment
 Eg. Research & Decisioning
Industry
Alignment
 Healthcare
 Financial Services
Defined
Progression Path
to Watson
Compliance with
Watson Reference
Architecture
Business Model
Adoption
 Align – development work around Big Data
 Anticipate – Analytics for better insight and outcomes
 Act – Evidence informed decision optimization
 Platform and tools interoperability
 Data, process and event integration standards
 LOB champion
 Long term investment, Value based pricing
 Cloud based delivery
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Ready for Watson Progression Path (Use Case Alignment)
1 Align
DIAGNOSIS & ACTION
CONTACT CENTER
SUPPORT
RESEARCH &
DISCOVERY
PROCESS
OPTIMIZATION
FRAUD & RISK MGMT
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2 Anticipate
3 Act
Collect case
information
Identify probable
outcomes
Implement insights
during case
consultation
Collect case
information
Recommend best
course of action
Share recommendation
and enable action
Identify source
data from across
industry
Prioritize relevant
research information
Enable content
utilization and
management
Extract facts from
process data
Determine
correlations that
improve outcomes
Drive new outcomes
into decision making
Review broad data
for potential fraud
Identify and flag
suspicious patterns
Track all investigations
as part of a case
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
IBM Watson client inquiries follow 5 different use cases
Use Case
Diagnosis & Action
Improve effectiveness of front line workers (e.g. doctors,
mechanics, financial advisors) focused on a single case
for a single client
Contact Center
Improve effectiveness of contact centers (or self service
portals) by managing knowledge bases & incorporating
client data
R&D Support
Processes Optimization
Fraud / Risk Management
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Overview
Accelerate and reduce the cost of research and
development by uncovering rare insights that may solve
research problems
Identify areas for improvement in overall processes by
analyzing unstructured data supporting process steps
and output
Identify early signs of fraud or best practices for
managing risk in order to lower overall liability and costs
of doing business
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Ready for Watson is a program designed to prepare and accelerate
client development toward a Watson Solution deployment
Watson Readiness
Full
Watson
Future
Watson
Watson
Inspired
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1
2
3
4
5
Use Case
Alignment
Industry
Alignment
Defined
Progression Path
to Watson
Compliance with
Watson Reference
Architecture
Business Model
Adoption
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Big Data
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Data volume is expanding at an incredible rate
…data will grow 800% in the next five years
…Unstructured data grows 10-50X faster than
structured
Data is getting more social. . .
…20M articles on Wikipedia
…30B pieces of Facebook content are shared monthly
…There are 156M public blogs
There are over 2.3B people on the Web today ...
… and a trillion connected objects – cars, appliances,
cameras, roadways, pipelines
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
“Data is the New Oil”
“Data is the New Oil”
Ann Winbald,
Co-founder Hummer
Winbald Venture
Capital
In its raw form, oil has little value.
Once processed & refined, it helps
power the world.
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Big Data is creating new possibilities and insights fueled by
analytics
Velocity
Volume
12
terabytes
of Tweets create daily
Analyze product sentiment
350
53
billion
5
Variety
million
trade events per second
Identify potential fraud
500
million
meter readings per annum
call detail records per day
Predict power
consumption
Prevent customer churn
100’s
video
feeds
from surveillance cameras
Monitor events of interest
80%
data
growth
are images, video, documents…
Improve customer satisfaction
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Smarter Analytics
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Analytics has evolved from business initiative to business
imperative
Analytically sophisticated companies outperform their
competition
Respondents who say analytics
creates a competitive advantage
2010
2011
55
37%
57%
increase
58%
Organizations achieving
a competitive advantage
with analytics are
2.2x
more likely to
substantially outperform
their industry peers
Source: The New Intelligent Enterprise, a joint MIT Sloan Management Review and IBM Institute of Business Value analytics
research partnership. Copyright © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2011
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
IBM Smarter Analytics is a holistic approach that turns information
into insight and insight into business outcomes.
Transform
through analytics for
breakaway results
Align
your organization
around information
Anticipate
see, predict and shape
business outcomes
Act
with confidence at the point of
impact to optimize outcomes
Learn
from solutions that get
smarter with every outcome
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Cognitive Systems
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© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Learning systems are ushering a new era of computing
Cognitive
Computing
Programmatic
Computing
Industry
Solutions
Watson
Business
Analytics
Big
Data
Emerging IT
Tabulation
Traditional IT
•
•
•
•
•
190058
Structured data (local)
Deterministic
Applications
Search Oriented
Machine Language
Systems of records
1950-
• Structured &
unstructured (global)
• Probabilistic
Applications
• Discovery Oriented
• Natural Language
• Systems of engagement
2011© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Cognitive Systems are defined by four key characteristics
•They are data-centric
•They are designed for statistical
analytics
•These systems that scale-in
•They automate system and workload
management
This new generation of computing
systems features embedded data
analytics, automated management
and data-centric architectures in
which the storage, memory,
switching and processing are
moving ever closer to the data.
Cognitive Domain
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Source: Anderson and Krathwohl, Taxonomy of the Cognitive Domain
© 2012 International Business Machines Corporation