Transcript Chartpack - The Commonwealth Fund

THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
Insurance Design Matters:
Underinsured Trends, Health and Financial Risks,
and Principles for Reform
Cathy Schoen
Senior Vice President
The Commonwealth Fund
[email protected]
Invited Testimony
U.S. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee
Hearing on “Addressing the Underinsured and National Health Reform”
February 24, 2009
EXHIBIT 1
Health Insurance Coverage and Uninsured Trends
Uninsured Projected to Rise
to 61 million by 2020
45.7 Million Uninsured, 2007
Uninsured
(15%)
Military
(1%)
Millions uninsured
Employer
(55%)
70
60
50
Individual
(5%)
40
Medicaid
(10%)
38 40
42 4343
45
47 46 47 48
49
53
50 52
55 56
59
57 58
60 61
30
20
10
Medicare
(13%)
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Total population
Projected estimates
Data: Analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement
(CPS ASEC), 2001–2008; projections to 2020 based on estimates by The Lewin Group.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 2
Percent of Adults Ages 18–64 Uninsured by State
1999–2000
2006–2007
WA
VT
NH ME
NH
WA
ND
MT
VT
MT
MN
OR
ID
NY
WI
SD
MI
WY
PA
IA
NE
CA
OH
IN
NV
UT
IL
CO
MA
KS
MO
WV
VA
KY
NJ
RI
CT
MN
OR
ID
MI
PA
IA
NE
CA
IL
CO
KS
MO
AZ
NM
MS
TX
AL
DE
MD
DC
NC
AZ
GA
NM
OK
SC
AR
MS
LA
TX
AL
GA
LA
FL
AK
VA
NJ
RI
CT
TN
SC
AR
WV
KY
TN
OK
OH
IN
NV
UT
MA
NY
WI
SD
WY
DE
MD
DC
NC
ME
ND
FL
AK
HI
23% or more
19%–22.9%
HI
14%–18.9%
Less than 14%
Data: Two-year averages from the U.S. Census Bureau, CPS ASEC, 2000–2001 and 2007–2008;
1999–2000 estimates updated with 2007 CPS correction.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
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25 Million Adults Underinsured in 2007,
60% Increase Since 2003
Uninsured
during the year
45.5
(26%)
Insured
all year,
underinsured*
15.6
(9%)
Insured all
year, not
underinsured
110.9
(65%)
Uninsured
during the year
49.5
(28%)
EXHIBIT 3
Insured all
year, not
underinsured
102.3
(58%)
Insured
all year,
underinsured*
25.2
(14%)
2003
Adults ages 19–64
(172.0 million)
2007
Adults ages 19–64
(177.0 million)
*Underinsured defined as insured all year but experienced one of the following: medical expenses
equaled 10% or more of income; medical expenses equaled 5% or more of income if low-income
(<200% of poverty); or deductibles equaled 5% or more of income.
Data: The Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Surveys (2003 and 2007).
Source: C. Schoen, S. R. Collins, J. L. Kriss, and M. M. Doty, “How Many Are Underinsured?
Trends Among U.S. Adults, 2003 and 2007,” Health Affairs Web Exclusive, June 10, 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
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EXHIBIT 4
Two of Five Adults Uninsured or Underinsured
Percent Underinsured Triples for Middle Income
Percent of adults (ages 19–64) who are uninsured or underinsured
100
Underinsured*
Uninsured during year
75
68
19
50
72
24
42
35
14
9
25
27
49
48
11
4
28
26
17
13
16
2003
2007
0
2003
Total
2007
2003
2007
Under 200% of poverty
200% of poverty or more
* Underinsured defined as insured all year but experienced one of the following: medical expenses equaled 10% or more
THE
of income, or 5% or more of income if low-income (<200% of poverty); or deductibles equaled 5% or more of income.
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
Data: The Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Surveys (2003 and 2007).
Source: Commonwealth Fund National Scorecard on U.S. Health System Performance, 2008.
EXHIBIT 5
Underinsured and Uninsured Adults at High Risk of
Going Without Needed Care and Financial Stress
Percent of adults (ages 19–64)
Insured, not underinsured
Underinsured
Uninsured during year
68
75
53
45
50
51
31
21
25
0
Went without needed care due to
Have medical bill problem or
costs*
outstanding debt**
* Did not fill prescription; skipped recommended medical test, treatment, or follow-up, had a medical problem but
did not visit doctor; or did not get needed specialist care because of costs. ** Had problems paying medical bills;
changed way of life to pay medical bills; or contacted by a collection agency for inability to pay medical bills.
Data: The Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Survey (2007).
Source: C. Schoen, S. Collins, J. Kriss, M. Doty, “How Many are Underinsured? Trends Among U.S. Adults,
2003 and 2007,” Health Affairs Web Exclusive, June 10, 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 6
Cost-Related Problems Getting Needed Care
Have Increased Across All Income Groups, 2001–2007
Percent of adults ages 19–64 who had any of four access problems*
in past year because of cost
2001
2007
75
62
50
45
41
58
43
40
29
29
24
25
14
0
Total
Low income
Moderate
Middle income High income
income
* Did not fill a prescription; did not see a specialist when needed; skipped recommended medical test, treatment, or
follow-up; had a medical problem but did not visit doctor or clinic.
Note: In 2001, low income is <$20,000, moderate income is $20,000–$34,999, middle income is $35,000–$59,999, and
high income is $60,000+. In 2007, low income is <$20,000, moderate income is $20,000–$39,999, middle income is
$40,000–$59,999, and high income is $60,000+.
Data: The Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Surveys (2001, 2007).
Source: S. R. Collins, J. L. Kriss, M. M. Doty and S. D. Rustgi, Losing Ground: How the Loss of Adequate Health
Insurance Is Burdening Working Families, The Commonwealth Fund, August 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 7
Uninsured and Underinsured Adults with Chronic Conditions
Are More Likely to Visit the ER for Their Conditions
Percent of adults ages 19–64 with
at least one chronic condition*
Total
Insured all year, not underinsured
Insured all year, underinsured
Insured now, time uninsured in past year
Uninsured now
75
62
64
46
50
33
25
43
32
26
15
33
19
0
Skipped doses or did not fill
Visited ER, hospital, or both for
prescription for chronic condition
chronic condition
because of cost**
* Hypertension, high blood pressure; heart disease; diabetes; asthma, emphysema, or lung disease.
** Adults with at least one chronic condition who take prescription medications on a regular basis.
Data: The Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Survey (2007).
Source: S. R. Collins, J. L. Kriss, M. M. Doty and S. D. Rustgi, Losing Ground: How the Loss of Adequate Health
Insurance Is Burdening Working Families, The Commonwealth Fund, August 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
RAND: Cost-Sharing Reduces Likelihood of
Receiving Effective Medical Care
EXHIBIT 8
Probability of receiving highly effective care
(when appropriate and necessary) for acute conditions
as compared to individuals with no cost-sharing
Children
Percent
100
80
60
Adults
85
56
71
59
40
20
0
Low-income in cost-sharing plans
Higher-income in cost-sharing plans
Source: K. N. Lohr et al., “Use of Medical Care in the RAND Health Insurance Experiment: Diagnosis- and
Service-Specific Analyses in a Randomized Controlled Trial,” Medical Care 24 (Sept. 1986 Suppl.):S1–S87.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
Cost-Sharing Reduces Use of Both
Essential and Less Essential Drugs and
Increases Risk of Adverse Events
Percent reduction in drugs per day
25
Elderly
22
Percent increase in incidence per 10,000
140
120
20
14
15
10
Low Income
15
100
Elderly
Low Income
117
97
78
80
9
EXHIBIT 9
43
60
40
5
20
0
0
Essential
Less Essential
Adverse Events
ED Visits
Source: R. Tamblyn, R. Laprise, J. A. Hanley et al., “Adverse Events Associated with Prescription Drug Cost-Sharing
Among Poor and Elderly Persons,” Journal of the American Medical Association, Jan. 24/31, 2001 285(4):421–29.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 10
People with Capped Drug Benefits Have
Lower Drug Utilization, Worse Control of Chronic Conditions
50
49.2
Benefits Capped
Benefits Not Capped
38.5
45.2
39.5
31.4
26.5
26.2
25
21.2
19.6
18.1
21.3
19.7
17
14.6
16.6
18.7
0
B
t i-H
n
A
s
r ug
d
P
e
ow
l
id
Lip
g
dr u
g
rin
s
A
b
dia
nt i
eti
s
rug
cd
Percent of Drug
Nonadherence
h
Hig
BP
hc
Hig
te
l es
o
h
rol
h
Hig
blo
od
c
glu
os
ev
el
els
Percent of Poor
Physiological Outcomes
E
is
Dv
it s
le
ne
o
N
cti
v
o
eh
i
sp
n
tio
za
i
l
ta
s
Rate* of Medical
Services Use
* Rate per 100 person-years.
Source: J. Hsu, M. Price, J. Huang et al., “Unintended Consequences of Caps on Medicare Drug Benefits,”
New England Journal of Medicine, June 1, 2006 354(22):2349–59.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
Lack of Insurance Undermines
Preventive and Chronic Care
Receipt of Recommended Screening
and Preventive Care,* 2005
Chronic Disease Under Control:
Diabetes and Hypertension, 1999–2004
Percent of adults
Percent of adults
100
100
EXHIBIT 11
Insured
Uninsured
81
80
80
63
60
50
46
53
41
32
40
60
40
21
20
20
0
0
Total
Uninsured Uninsured Insured all
all year
part year
year
Diabetes under
High blood pressure
control**
under control***
* Recommended care includes: blood pressure, cholesterol, Pap, mammogram, fecal occult blood test or
sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, and flu shot within a specific time frame given age and sex. ** Refers to diabetic adults
whose HbA1c is <9.0 *** Refers to hypertensive adults whose blood pressure is <140/90 mmHg.
Data: Preventive care–B. Mahato, Columbia University analysis of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey; Chronic
disease–J. M. McWilliams, Harvard Medical School analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
Source: Commonwealth Fund National Scorecard on U.S. Health System Performance, 2008
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
Cost-Related Access Problems Among the
Chronically Ill, in Eight Countries, 2008
EXHIBIT 12
Base: Adults with any chronic condition
Percent reported access problem due to cost in past two years*
60
54
40
36
31
23
25
26
CAN
GER
20
13
7
0
NETH
UK
FR
NZ
AUS
US
* Due to cost, respondent did NOT: fill Rx or skipped doses, visit a doctor when had a medical problem, and/or get
recommended test, treatment, or follow-up.
Data: The Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey of Sicker Adults (2008).
Source: C. Schoen et al., “In Chronic Condition: Experiences of Patients with Complex Healthcare Needs in Eight
Countries, 2008,” Health Affairs Web Exclusive, Nov. 13, 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 13
Ambulatory Care–Sensitive (Potentially Preventable)
Hospital Admissions, by Race/Ethnicity and
Patient Income Area, 2004/2005*
Adjusted rate per 100,000 population
Heart failure
1000
Diabetes**
Pediatric asthma
904
667
554
444
520
500
392
240
178
173
98
0
ite
h
W
390
374
144
110
NA
k
00
0+
ni c
ac
Bl ispa 5,00 25,0
H
$4
<$
W
te
hi
c
k
0+ ,000
ni
ac
0
l
a
0
B
25
5,
sp
Hi
$4
<$
W
e
hit
k
+
0
ic
ac
00
an
,00
0
5
,
p
Bl
2
5
s
Hi
$4
<$
* 2004 data for diabetes and pediatric asthma; 2005 data for heart failure. ** Combines 4 diabetes admission measures:
uncontrolled, short-term complications, long-term complications, and lower extremity amputations.
Patient Income Area=median income of patient zip code. NA=data not available.
Data: Race/ethnicity—Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, State Inpatient Databases and National Hospital Discharge Survey
(AHRQ 2007); Income area—HCUP, Nationwide Inpatient Sample (AHRQ 2007, retrieved from HCUPnet at
http://hcupnet.ahrq.gov).
Source: Commonwealth Fund National Scorecard on U.S. Health System Performance, 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 14
Probability of ACS Hospitalizations Increases
with Medicaid Coverage Gaps, 1998–2002
Note: Ambulatory care-sensitive (ACS) conditions include dehydration, ruptured appendicitis, cellulitis, bacterial
pneumonia, urinary tract infection, asthma, hypertension, COPD, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and angina.
Source: A. Bindman, A. Chattapadhyay, and G. Auerback, ”Interruptions in Medicaid Coverage and Risk for
Hospitalization for Ambulatory Care–Sensitive Conditions,” Annals of Internal Medicine, Dec.16, 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 15
Mortality Amenable to Health Care
Deaths per 100,000 population*
1997/98
150
2002/03
130
109
99
100
76
81
88
84
89
97
89
65
71
74
74
77
115
93
96
128
115
113
97
88
50
71
116
106
134
80
82
82
84
84
90
101
103
103
104
110
Fr
an
ce
Ja
p
Au an
st
ra
lia
Sp
ai
n
Ita
Ca ly
na
d
No a
Ne
r
th way
er
la
nd
s
Sw
ed
e
Gr n
ee
c
Au e
s
Ge tria
rm
an
y
F
Ne inl
w a nd
Ze
al
an
Un De
d
ite nm
d
Ki ark
ng
do
m
Ire
la
Po n d
Un
r
ite tug
a
d
St l
at
es
0
* Countries’ age-standardized death rates before age 75; including ischemic heart disease, diabetes, stroke,
and bacterial infections.
Data: E. Nolte and C. M. McKee, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine analysis of World Health
Organization mortality files (Nolte and McKee 2008).
Source: Commonwealth Fund National Scorecard on U.S. Health System Performance, 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 16
Medical Bill Problems and
Accrued Medical Debt, 2005–2007
Percent of adults ages 19–64
2005
2007
Had problems paying or unable to pay
medical bills
23%
39 million
27%
48 million
Contacted by collection agency for
unpaid medical bills
13%
22 million
16%
28 million
Had to change way of life to pay bills
14%
24 million
18%
32 million
Any of the above bill problems
28%
48 million
33%
59 million
Medical bills being paid off over time
21%
37 million
28%
49 million
Any bill problems or medical debt
34%
58 million
41%
72 million
In the past 12 months:
Source: S. R. Collins, J. L. Kriss, M. M. Doty and S. D. Rustgi, Losing Ground: How the Loss of Adequate Health
Insurance Is Burdening Working Families, The Commonwealth Fund, August 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 17
Problems with Medical Bills or
Accrued Medical Debt Increased, 2005–2007
Percent of adults ages 19–64 with medical bill
problems or accrued medical debt
2005
75
53
50
34
41
43
2007
56
48
32
39
25
20
25
0
Total
Low income
Moderate
Middle income High income
income
Note: Low income is <$20,000, moderate income is $20,000–$39,999, middle income is $40,000–$59,999,
and high income is $60,000+.
Data: The Commonwealth Fund Biennial Health Insurance Surveys (2005 and 2007).
Source: S. R. Collins, J. L. Kriss, M. M. Doty and S. D. Rustgi, Losing Ground: How the Loss of Adequate Health
Insurance Is Burdening Working Families, The Commonwealth Fund, August 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 18
Deductibles Rise Sharply,
Especially in Small Firms, 2000–2008
Mean deductible for single coverage (PPO, in-network)
917
$1,000
2000
2008
$750
560
413
$500
$250
187
210
157
$0
Total
Small firms, 3–199
Large firms, 200+
employees
employees
PPO = preferred provider organization. PPOs covered 57 percent of workers enrolled in an employer-sponsored
health insurance plan in 2007.
Source: The Kaiser Family Foundation/Health Research and Educational Trust, Employer Health Benefits,
2000 and 2007 Annual Surveys.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 19
Health Care Costs Concentrated in Sick Few—
Sickest 10% Account for 64% of Expenses
Distribution of health expenditures for the U.S. population,
by magnitude of expenditure, 2003
0%
10%
Expenditure
Threshold
(2003 Dollars)
1%
5%
10%
20%
30%
24%
$36,280
49%
$12,046
64%
$6,992
40%
50%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
97%
100%
U.S. population
$715
Health expenditures
Source: S. H. Zuvekas and J. W. Cohen, “Prescription Drugs and the Changing Concentration
of Health Care Expenditures,” Health Affairs, Jan/Feb 2007 26(1):249–57.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 20
Cumulative Changes in Components of U.S. National
Health Expenditures and Workers’ Earnings, 2000–2008
Percent
125
Net cost of private health insurance administration
Private insurance net of administraion
106%
100
Out-of-pocket spending
Workers’ earnings
75
75%
50
47%
29%
25
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
* 2007 and 2008 NHE projections.
Data: Calculations based on A. Catlin et al., “National Health Spending in 2006” Health Affairs, Jan./Feb. 2008; and
S. Keehan et al. Health Spending Projections through 2017” Health Affairs Web Exclusive (Feb. 26, 2008). Workers
earnings from Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation/Health Research and Educational Trust, Employer Health Benefits
Annual Surveys, 2000–2008.
2008*
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 21
Source: E. O’Brien and J. Hoadley, Medicare Advantage: Options for Standardizing Benefits and Information to
Improve Consumer Choice, The Commonwealth Fund, April 2008.
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 22
Insurance Reforms: Goals and Design Principles
•
Goals:
– Access, financial protection and risk pooling
– Focus competition on value: better health & effective care
•
Benefit floor: a standard benefit available to all
– Broad scope of benefits
– Prohibit limits by disease or spending by specific benefits
– If deductible, exempt preventive care and essential medications
– Annual out-of-pocket maximums
– High life-time maximum (or no ceiling)
•
Limit range of variation and standardize (actuarial equivalent?)
– Enable informed comparison
– Provide consumer protection
– Limit risk-segmentation
– Lower administrative costs
•
Income-related premium assistance to assure affordability
•
Low-income: low-cost sharing and limit total cost exposure
•
Insurance market reforms – guarantee offer and renewal; premiums
same for same benefits, not vary with health (no underwriting)
•
Mechanism to risk-adjust premiums: align incentives with value
THE
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
EXHIBIT 23
Path to High Performance: Trend in the Number of
Uninsured, 2009–2020, Projected and Path Policies
Millions
80
Current law
Path proposal
60
48.0
48.9
50.3
51.8
53.3
6.3
4.0
4.1
54.7
56.0
57.2
58.3
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
59.2
60.2
61.1
4.2
4.2
4.2
40
19.7
20
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
THE
Note: Assumes reforms start in 2010 and take-up occurs over 2 years. Remaining uninsured mainly non-tax-filers.
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
Data: Estimates by The Lewin Group for The Commonwealth Fund.
Source: The Path to a High Performance U.S. Health System: A 2020 Vision and the Policies to Pave the Way, Feb. 2009.
EXHIBIT 24
Total National Health Expenditures (NHE), 2009–2020
Current Projection and Alternative Scenarios
NHE in trillions
$6
Current projection (6.7% annual growth)
Path proposals (5.5% annual growth)
$5
Constant (2009) proportion of GDP (4.7% annual growth)
$4
5.2
4.6
4.2
$3
2.6
$2
Cumulative reduction in NHE through 2020: $3 trillion
$1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
THE
GDP = Gross Domestic Product.
COMMONWEALTH
FUND
Data: Estimates by The Lewin Group for The Commonwealth Fund.
Source: The Path to a High Performance U.S. Health System: A 2020 Vision and the Policies to Pave the Way, Feb. 2009.