Transcript World Energy Security (1)

Iran's Foreign Policy
Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki
Abbas Maleki
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The sequence of steps of
Decision Making
1. Defining the problem;
 2. Classifying the problem;
 3. Specifying answers to the problem;
 4. Delineating a course of action to resolve
the problem; and,
 5. Testing the effectiveness of the decision,
against the probable course of events
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Consider “routes” with “signs”
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No decision is possible without following a
defining rule;
Rules and strategies affect choice; the use of
different decision rules (analytic, cybernetic, or
cognitive) or “mixed” strategies (such as
analytic–cybernetic) influence the outcome;
The way issues are “framed” and “counterframed” to the public by the political leader or
opposition are also likely to affect the choices;
Rules for how individual preferences are
aggregated into collective opinion affect choices;
The comprehensiveness of the information
available affects the choices;
The order in which information is processed
affects the outcome
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What is the goal of a Political
Decision Maker
(1) maximizes or satisfies utility,
 (2) engages in a holistic search,
 (3) makes detailed calculations, or
 (4) consists of simplifying heuristics bound
by framing effects
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Rational Approach
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The rational actor model assumes
optimisation within a global sphere of
interaction, with the assumptions of market
economics driving the society/polity
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Disciplines of Rationality Model
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Cognitive psychologists focus on how normative
behaviours are chosen by individuals;
Sociologists focus on social structures, values, and
norms;
Anthropologists debate formalist economics (rationality)
versus substantive economics (where religious values and
social considerations outweigh economic and political
gain);
Political scientists focus on the predominance of political
factors and political institutions in decision making;
Economists focus on maximizing wealth while subject to
various constraints;
Finance theorists focus on the imperfect behaviour of
markets and the capacity to profit during market
perturbations; and,
Marketing strategists “frame” consumer choices that lead
to rational behaviour choices
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The High Council for National
Security
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(HCNS) was created under the 1988
supplementary constitution.
The Iranian President heads the HCNS, which
integrates the institutions of power.
The HCNS brings together
(1) two representatives from the Supreme
Leader,
(2) the Heads of the three branches of
government,
(3) the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Interior,
Intelligence, Defence, and
(4) the Commanders of the Regular and
Revolutionary Military sections
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Iran’s Foreign policy Preferences
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The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes
clear Iran’s preferences in foreign policy.
Four groups of countries are ranked in
preference:
(1) Iran’s neighbours;
(2) Muslim countries;
(3) Third World countries;
(4) countries that furnish political, economic,
social and/or military needs of Iran.
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Iran and its Subregions
Middle East
 Persian Gulf
 South West Asia
 Central Asia, Caucasus, and Afghanistan
 Caspian Basin
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World Energy Security (1)
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-A perception is World should be concerned
about its energy security given recent
developments in the Middle East.
-Reality is that despite a war in the Middle East,
World has not faced problems with its energy
supplies.
-Over these past months, there were never any
disruption of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf
beyond Iraq and what’s more.
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World Energy Security (2)
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Saudi Arabia and other Gulf OPEC producers
significantly increased production to fill the gap.
-Reality is that the market remains well-supplied.
-The Persian Gulf continues to be the home of
the most easily exploited and cost-effective
petroleum reserves in the world.
Persian Gulf natural resources are undergirding
the phenomenal economic rise of India and
China.
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The Significance of Iran
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-Over the past 90 years Iran, with its huge oil and gas
reserves representing 9 and 13 percent of those of the
world.
-Its economy is based on oil export revenues, which
contribute as much as 80 percent of its total export
earnings and 40-50 percent of the government budget.
-In recent years, Iran has held a share in OPEC
production of 13-14 percent.
-In order to maintain this share, it needs not only to
counterbalance the natural decline in the present
production, but also to meet the requirements for
additional production capacities.
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Iran’s Membership in
Regional/International
Organizations
United Nations and its institutions
 ECO (Economic Cooperation
Organization)
 OPEC (Organization for Petroleum
Exporting Countries)
 ICO (Islamic Conference Organization)
 North-South Corridor
 D8 (Islamic Developed Countries)
 Non-Aligned Movement
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Proposed Clubs for Iran
SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)
 GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council)
 Arab League
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Iran and Initiated Regional
Organization
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Persian States Countries:
Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan
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Caspian Cooperation Organization:
Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan
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Shi’a Nations Rim:
1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain
2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon,
Afghanistan
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Iran and Europe (1)
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Member ship of each central or Eastern Europe
countries to EU means a new demand for
Energy.
Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, most
important of them: Russia, Iran and Qatar.
In the Cold War era, with political motivation,
Europe preferred to follow the Soviet gas
pipeline instead of the cheap and costless
Iranian gas.
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Iran and Europe (2)
Now again, because of US extraterritorial
rules like ILSA, the oil and gas companies
can not invest more than 20 million dollars
in Iran's energy industries.
 The gas pipeline from Central Asia to Iran
then Europe is a key project in trilateral
cooperation among three regions. The
physibility study of the two routes from
Iran to Europe via Turkey and Ukraine had
been done.
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Iran and Europe (3)
-An expanded pipeline consortium with
governments participation in the Caspian
-Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran (KTI) is one
option (TotalFinaElf Project)
-Azerbaijan, Iran (Tabriz), Turkey (Ceyhan).
 Dialogue on Human Rights
 Collective Security in Iran’s Subregions:
-Persian Gulf
-Caucasus
-The Roof of the World
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What can Iranian Government
do?
Easy visa for all of nationals, esp.
Americans
 Expand knowledge about Iran’s model
among Arab countries:
A modern approach with respect to the
past, tradition and Islam
 Working more on mutual understanding of
security with each of the Persian Gulf
Countries.
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Tendencies on Iran’s Future
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The 20-Year Perspectives produced by all of the
decision makers within Iran concentrate on “Iran
as a Regional Power”.
The Five Year Plans also define strategies to
reach to a level of strength, ability and legitimacy
as a regional power.
The key internal players as new Parliament
Member, Mayor, Head of IRIB, and Judiciary
believe Iran must be strong if wants to be secure
in turbulent atmosphere of the region.
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