Transcript VOTING BEHAVIOR THEORIES

VOTING BEHAVIOR THEORIES
In the United States, 1940s to today
Voting behavior theories
• Columbia school (1940s, 1950s)
– Voting, The People’s Choice
– Sociologists and marketing researchers
– Community studies (NOT national surveys)
– Emphasis on GROUPS: religion, workplace, social
acquaintances
– Personal influence a crucial intervening factor
– Cross pressured voters choose late (if at all)
Voting behavior theories
• Michigan school (1960 onward)
– The American Voter
– Social psychologists, political scientists
– National surveys (National Election Studies begun
in 1948)
– Emphasis on PARTY IDENTIFICATION as a
psychological attachment
– Party ID begins the “funnel of causality” leading to
vote choice
Why believe Michigan?
• Party ID explains vote choice far better than all
other variables (including political ideology)
• Survey data establishes central importance of
Party ID, develops connections among other
explanatory variables
Concerns with Michigan model
• 1950s = political stability
– 2 presidential elections between same candidates
(Eisenhower, Stevenson)
– Bipartisan agreement on most foreign policy
issues
– Major divisions are within political parties, not
between political parties
– What isn’t measured can’t be evaluated (group
attachments)
Challenges to Michigan model
• V.O. Key (1964): “Voters are not fools”
– Electorate’s output reflects its input; hence a more
substantive campaign would reflect issue-based
voting more so than in 1952, 1956 = The
Responsible Electorate
– Even if Party ID is central explanatory factor,
voters without strong Party ID decide elections
(switchers vs. standpatters)
Challenges to Michigan model
• Issue voting (late 1960s onward)
– The Changing American Voter
– Issues matter, effects of Party ID lessened when
issue stances included in predictive models
– By 1980s, parties begin to sort better among
political ideologies (hence issues predict party
attachments better)
– More people now vote on basis of single issues
(though still not a large number, less than 20%)
Challenges to Michigan model
• Rochester model (rational choice) - 1980s
onward
– Retrospective Voting in American National
Elections (1981)
– voters reward incumbents who have benefited
them, punish incumbents who have not
– Explains congressional election patterns well
– Campaign events aid in retrospective evaluations
Voting behavior research today
• Michigan runs the National Election Study
• Rational choice has strong proponents but
weak evidence
• Greater emphasis on “campaign effects” or
the “Three C’s”
– Campaign issues (what matters now)
– Perceptions of candidates (personality)
– Campaign events (debates, ads, scandal)
• Group attachments more prominent (esp. religion)