Transcript Quick links - Families and housing tenure in young adulthood

Social disparities in private renting
amongst young families in England
and Wales, 2001-2011
Rory Coulter ([email protected])
ENHR Annual Conference, 30th June 2016
Background
• Rapid growth of private renting and continuing
decline of homeownership amongst young Britons
– 58% to 68% of 16-24s between 2008/9 and 2013/14
– 31% to 45% of 25-34s (Rugg and Quilgars, 2015)
• Has created a discourse of ‘Generation Rent’
• Policy responses concentrate on assisting
homeownership transitions
Background
• Much of the Generation Rent debate focuses on
cohort and generational inequality
Background
• However 2 further concerns are emerging:
1. Negative impacts of private renting on families
– Costs, dwelling quality, tenure security, residential stability...
2. Social stratification within Generation Rent
– Disproportionately less advantaged young people raising
families in the PRS
– Ties back to older literature on stratification of housing by
class and position in the labour force (Hamnett, Saunders)
Question and approach
To what extent has the growth of private renting amongst young
families been more pronounced for those with a less advantaged
class position?
• Focus on 25-34s and subdivide families by type (lone parent v
couple), labour force participation (dual v single earner
couples) and occupational class
• National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification (NS-SEC),
contrasting higher managerial, administrative and professional
jobs (NS-SEC 1-2) with routine & manual work (NS-SEC 5-7)
Data
• ONS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales
• Compare 2001 with 2011
• Select sample members aged 25-34 who headed a ‘family’
– census indicator coded using intra-household relationships
– in this study=lone parent or couple with child(ren)
• N=59690 with 30913 in 2001 and 28777 in 2011
• Dependent variable codes tenure and living arrangements
Housing position in 2011 by family type
100
Lone parents
Dual-earner couples
Single-earner couples
11.6
12.3
17.4
5.0
32.2
32.0
33.0
33.1
35.0
10.0
20.8
34.5
19.8
76.2
39.5
54.6
45.2
35.8
30.4
0
13.9
NS-SEC 1-2
NS-SEC 5-7
Ownership
NS-SEC 1-2
Social tenancy
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis
NS-SEC 5-7
Private tenancy
NS-SEC 1-2
NS-SEC 5-7
Parental home
% point change in housing position, 2001-11
Dual-earner couples
Single-earner couples
-40
-20
0
20
40
Lone parents
NS-SEC 1-2
NS-SEC 5-7
Ownership
NS-SEC 1-2
Social tenancy
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis
NS-SEC 5-7
Private tenancy
NS-SEC 1-2
Parental home
NS-SEC 5-7
Multinomial model
• Descriptive results do not take into account other
compositional factors associated with family type
• Model housing position (reference category=private
tenancy) with controls to see if bivariate patterns persist
• Controls: age, gender, ethnicity, health status, highest
qualifications, region, inter-censal migration, parental labour
force position, parental homeownership
Summary of main results (relative risk ratios)
Variable
Ownership
Social tenancy
Parental home
0.260
0.426
0.425
Lone parent, NS-SEC 1-2
0.175
1.590
4.027
Lone parent, NS-SEC 5-7
0.074
2.196
3.088
Dual-earner, NS-SEC 5-7
0.782
2.637
*
Single-earner, NS-SEC 1-2
0.519
*
*
Single earner, NS-SEC 5-7
0.434
2.865
0.595
Lone parent, NS-SEC 1-2 x 2011
*
*
*
Lone parent, NS-SEC 5-7 x 2011
*
*
1.713
Dual-earner, NS-SEC 5-7 x 2011
0.690
*
*
Single-earner, NS-SEC 1-2 x 2011
*
1.493
*
Single earner, NS-SEC 5-7 x 2011
0.616
*
*
2011 dummy (ref=2001)
Family type (ref= dual NS-SEC 1-2)
Interaction terms
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis. *=p>0.05. Base outcome=private tenancy.
Marginal effects of 2011 dummy on the
probability of private tenancy
Dual-earner couples
Single-earner couples
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Lone parents
NS-SEC 1-2
NS-SEC 5-7
NS-SEC 1-2
NS-SEC 5-7
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis. All covariates held at observed values.
NS-SEC 1-2
NS-SEC 5-7
Predicted probabilities in 2001 and 2011
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Dual-earners
Single earners
2001
Lone parents
2011
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis. Covariates set to mean and modal values.
Dual-earners
57
N
SSE
C
12
N
SSE
C
57
N
SSE
C
12
N
SSE
C
57
N
SSE
C
12
N
SSE
C
57
N
SSE
C
12
N
SSE
C
57
N
SSE
N
SSE
C
12
0
Lone parents
C
57
C
N
SSE
N
SSE
C
12
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Predicted probability
0.8
1
Private tenancy
1
Ownership
Single-earners
Conclusions and extensions
• Increased private renting most rapid for less advantaged
– Offsets trends in homeownership
• Likely due to constraints and may have ramifications for a
range of outcomes (eg. wealth, well-being, housing
conditions)
• Extensions
– Panel analysis of transitions (timing, bidirectional processes)
– Multilevel analysis of contextual factors
Acknowledgements
This research is supported by an Economic and Social Research Council
Future Research Leaders award [ES/L0094981/1]. Additional financial
support has been provided by the Isaac Newton Trust.
The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal
Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the
Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS).
CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme
under project ES/K000365/1. I bear sole responsibility for all analyses and
interpretations of the data.
Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of
the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.