Transcript Introduction to Actuarial Studies and Statistics

Become a Statistic
(-ally trained professional)
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A bad rap
Liars, Damned Liars, Statisticians!
Statistics means never having to say you’re
certain…
Figures don’t lie, but liars sure figure…
Statisticians are dull and colourless…
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Go figure…
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Myths about Statistics
Statistics is dull and useless
Statistics is critical to good science,
because it enables us to make decisions
in the presence of random occurrences,
and helps us to understand complex
data structures.
As we look into a future where our lives
are inundated with data, those who are
equipped to make sense of the
information surrounding them will be
VERY popular!
Another Myth
Statistics is hard to
understand
Not really. In fact, a lot of
statistics is just plain
commonsense. Statistics is
about making decisions in
the face of uncertainty. Isn’t
that what you do every day?
Want to know how to do it
properly???
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Another Myth
Statistics = Maths
Yes, statistics is based on mathematics, but the
analysis of data is an art as well as a science, and
must incorporate “real world” information in a
way that a closed, mathematical system
sometimes can’t. Models are at best
approximations to reality.
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Another Myth
Liars, Damned Liars, Statisticians
Bad statistics, like bad people, can
cause “lies”, or misrepresentations
of the truth. But good statistics is
about discovering the truth.
Statistics is a tool that helps us
explain the world. Like many tools,
if it falls into the wrong hands,
disaster can result.
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Another (last one…) Myth
Statistics = Data
You’ll often hear “statistics”
quoted in the newspaper.
Actually, what is being
quoted is data, or basic
summary information.
Statistics is about
interpreting the
information.
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Now some truths…
Statistics pervades all of science (life!)
Science is about making sense of our world. But
so much of what happens in the world is subject
to random fluctuations, and statistics is about
understanding those fluctuations and making
predictions.
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More truth
Statistics is relevant for YOUR life
Understanding our world means interpreting data! Is climate change real? If so, how can we understand
this complex system? Statistics can help!
A lot of government policy is based on correctly interpreting information obtained through sampling.
How do governments use this information? Statistics!
Statistics improves the quality of our lives: statistical analyses carried out by drug companies give the
companies the evidence they need to bring new drugs to market. While it is true that statistics alone will
not cure cancer or HIV, once a potential cure is discovered, statistics will be instrumental in convincing
health authorities to make the cure available, and will help the drug companies assess the severity and
likelihood of nasty side effects.
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Even more truth
If you have data, then you need statistics
Lots of people, some of them respected scientists, think that
statistics is not really necessary to do good science.
Unfortunately for them, this is complete rubbish. Without at
least an elementary understanding of the ideas behind
statistics, horrible mistakes can be made in assessing even
simple-looking data. The history of science is littered with
examples of bad decisions being made because someone
interpreted their data in a naïve, uncritical way. No matter
what area of science you come from, you can’t ignore
statistics!
Oh, and WE ALL HAVE DATA THESE DAYS… LOTS OF IT…
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The B.Stat.
• Only named Statistics degree in Australia
• Basic structure:
– Theoretical Core (Mathematical Statistics,
Stochastic Processes, Inference)
– Applied Core (Regression Modelling, Experimental
Design, Graphics)
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Specialisations
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Applied Probability
Statistical Methodology
Business Statistics
Econometrics
Financial Statistics
Psychological Research Methods
Sociological Research Methods
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Become…
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Statistician
Data Analyst
Biostatistician
Probabilist
Just about anything*
* With probability 0.95
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Work…
Anywhere!! From banks and biotechs to
pharmaceuticals and Google, and everywhere in
between, the demand for people who
understand and can model data is HUGE.
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Harvard Business Review
WetFeet
CIO Magazine
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New York Times
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statistics.com
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indeed.com
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How to get in…
2017: We don’t know yet… (uncertainty again!)
But on the basis that past data can be used to
predict the future… past entry requirements*
were:
•UAI / ENTER / TER
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•QLD Band
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•International Baccalaureate 31
* From http://programsandcourses.anu.edu.au/2016/program/BSTAT
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Take part in the CBE Challenge
and scan the QR code
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