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Do Nows 1. Charlie Manuel (manager of the Phillies) needs to select a batting order for tonight's ball game. If there are only nine players to choose from, set up an expression that determines how many possibilities he has. 2. An experiment is run to determine the probability of selecting a card less than 5 (including aces) in a standard deck of cards. Thirty people each chose one card, but there were still five cards less than 5 left that were not selected. a) What is the theoretical probability of selecting a card less than 5? b) What is the experimental probability of selecting a card less than 5? c) Are the two probabilities comparable? Insano Probability Probability Meeting Probability Find the Following Probabilities Choosing a music nerd Choosing a jock Choosing a jock AND musician at same time Choosing a jock OR a musician Not choosing a jock Word to the Term Mutually Exclusive: Events with no common outcomes Overlapping: Events with at least one common outcome Mutually Exclusive or Overlapping? Rolling a dice Getting an even or a prime Getting a 2 or a multiple of 3 Getting a number less than 5 or a prime Deck of cards Getting a face card or an ace Getting a red card or a king Getting a spade or a face card The Problems with “OR” P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B) Find the probability that I pick a random student from this class that has brown hair or is a girl. Remember: 52 Cards in a Deck Find the Probability that you choose a Queen or an Ace Find the Probability that you choose a King or a Club Mutually Exclusive or Overlapping? Rolling a dice Getting an even or a prime Getting a multiple of 3 or a two Getting a number less than 5 or a prime Deck of cards Getting a face card or an ace Getting a red card or a king Getting a spade or a face card Do Nows 1. State the P(A or B) formula: 2. What is the probability of rolling a dice and getting a prime or a six? 3. What is the probability of selecting a card from a deck that is a face or more than 6 4. Based off of #2 and #3, how can you determine which probability is mutually exclusive? Multiple Experiments When running two or more experiments, the issue of replacement can effect the outcomes. Independent: One event having no impact on another event Dependent: One event being influenced by another event The Jelly Bean Experiment 5 Green, 3 blue, 6 orange, and 2 brown jellybeans are placed in a bag. Find the following probabilities: Pick an orange, replace it, then pick a blue. Pick an orange, eat it, then pick a blue. Pick three consecutive greens without replacement Pick three consecutive browns with replacement Independently Dependent Mr. Cella is wheelin’-and-dealin’! What is the probability that he chooses a Jack, replaces the card, then draws a King? What if he doesn’t replace the Jack? The Big Kahuna!!! Drawing a Royal Flush