Transcript Sourcing Secondary Data for Cost Benefit Analysis

Sourcing Secondary Data for Cost
Benefit Analysis
Jonathan Bower
Land Resources Division
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
The word data is the plural of datum which is the past participle of the Latin dare, "to give", hence
"something given".
Contents
1. Why secondary data?
– Why secondary data is usually necessary for a
CBA
2. What secondary data?
– Sources of secondary data
3. Who has secondary data?
– Useful contacts and general links
Why secondary data is usually necessary for a CBA
1. WHY SECONDARY DATA?
Why use secondary data in a CBA?
• Localised primary data sources are not
always enough to know the full costs
and benefits of climate change,
especially for CBAs of projects with a
regional or national effect.
Why use secondary data in a CBA?
• Primary and secondary data need to be brought together to gain a
fuller picture
– E.g. digging a large drain to stop flooding enabled 1500 extra tonnes of sugar cane
to be harvested (primary data) for the same price, but I needed to know the price
of sugar cane per tonne (secondary data from Fiji Sugar Corporation) so I could
work out the benefit of investing in the ditch.
• In the Excel example yesterday, we needed secondary data on:
– grain imports
– grain price
– probability of biological hazard occurring
Sources of secondary data
2. WHAT SECONDARY DATA
What secondary data might be needed?
• Climate change likely to affects agricultural production so we are likely
looking at positive changes in crop yield or livestock production due to
adaptation measures.
• Existing yields, prices, revenues
• Household level: Average rural household income and % of income from
agriculture – to know how big a difference the adaptation measures are
making.
• National level: GDP contribution of agriculture
• Probability of negative climate event
• Adaptation will also affect production costs – which can be found from
both primary and secondary sources
What secondary data might be needed for a CBA?
Data
Source
Source: Steve Rogers, FAO (2010)
Household Income and Expenditure Survey
• Does what it says on the tin, in detail.
• Data on consumption of and income from food-related goods
– crops, livestock, fish
• You can ask for HIES data, not just the HIES report
– Contact the national bureau of statistics, or if in doubt, contact Gerald
Haberkorn, Manager of SPC’s Statistics for Development Program –
[email protected]
• WHY? Useful for:
• showing what proportion of household income comes from
agricultural products
• showing household income and income per capita, disaggregated
by region
• showing population of specific areas
• Palau: 2006
HIES Reports
http://www.palaugov.net/stats/PalauStats/Publication/2006HIES%20Report.pdf
• Solomon Islands: 2006
http://www.spc.int/prism/country/sb/stats/Publication/Annual/HIES%20National%20Report-Final.pdf
• Fiji: 2009
http://www.statsfiji.gov.fj/cens&surveys/HIES.htm - The Preliminary report is online and the final report has been released
but is not available online yet. Contact: Epeli Waqavonovono directly or through Gerald Haberkorn
• PNG 2008
Not available online. Email: [email protected] – or contact Mrs. Francesca TINABAR, Director - Household Income &
Expenditure Survey 2009 -2010, National Statistics Office Tel: (675) 301 1200 (675) 301 1200 Fax: (675) 325 1869 E-mail:
[email protected]
Domestic Market Surveys
• Available from national statistics offices or
departments of agriculture; used to calculate
national accounts
• Useful for:
– Prices of specific goods, predicting those prices in future
– Quantity of goods: a measure of the size of the food
market, predicting the size of this market in future
– Estimating potential loss of domestic market revenue from
climate change and/or gain from an intervention such as
introduction of salt-resistant taro
Domestic Market Surveys
•
Solomon Islands: no domestic market survey but: Market analysis of fresh
vegetables in Solomon Islands (World Vegetable Center 2009)
http://203.64.245.61/fulltext_pdf/EB/2001-2010/eb0138.pdf
• Fiji – available from 29 July 2010 to present
http://www.agriculture.org.fj/index.cfm?si=main.resources&cmd=forumview&cbegin=0&uid=mrktinfocrop&cid=1638
Consumer Price Index
• An index constructed from the increase in price of a weighted basket of
goods that the average consumer buys
• Describes the rate at which price increases each year
• WHY? Some costs and benefits come in nominal terms, so to convert
them to real terms we need to guess what rate of inflation to use.
• In simpler cases this may not be needed
• Export Price Indices
CPI Reports
• Fiji - disaggregated by region
http://www.statsfiji.gov.fj/Economic/Prices.htm
• PNG – urban stats only, up to September 2010
http://www.nso.gov.pg/statistical-data/economic-statistics/consumer-price-index/year-2000/3rd-quarterseptember/cpi-summary
• Solomon Islands – up to August 2008
http://www.spc.int/prism/country/sb/stats/Economic/cpi/Cpimajgp.htm
• Palau –up to June 2010
http://www.palaugov.net/stats/PalauStats/Economic/CPI/CPI_n.htm
Agriculture Census
• Useful for production figures and production input
costs
– Fiji – 2009
http://www.agriculture.org.fj/index.cfm?si=main.resources&cmd=forumview&cbegin=0&uid=nac&cid=1603
– PNG – 1963
– Solomon Islands – 1980s
– Palau – 1994
http://www.pacificweb.org/DOCS/rop/PDF/94AgriCes.pdf
Food and Agriculture in Papua New Guinea
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Epic piece of work edited by R. Michael Bourke, Statistical Appendix Tables
History of Agriculture in Papua New Guinea R. Michael Bourke
People, Land and Environment Bryant Allen and R. Michael Bourke
Food Production, Consumption and Imports R. Michael Bourke, John Gibson, Alan Quartermain, Kate
Barclay, Bryant Allen and Jean Kennedy
Village Food Production Systems R. Michael Bourke and Bryant Allen
The Broader Economy Andrew McGregor and R. Michael Bourke
Cash Income from Agriculture Matthew Allen, R. Michael Bourke and Andrew McGregor
Agricultural Development, Policies and Governance Bryant Allen
Appendix Tables
Index
Free PDF download - http://epress.anu.edu.au/titles/food_agriculture_citation/pdf-download
National Minimum Development
Indicators Database
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One stop shop
But there is only data for Fiji and Solomons (as of March
Will be on PRISM web site soon - http://www.spc.int/prism
Contact: Gerald Haberkorn, Statistics for Development
Program, SPC – [email protected]
• Contains
– Production data
– Price data
– Export and import data
National Minimum Development Indicators
Agricultural Indicator
Proportion of household income from agriculture and forestry activities
Proportion of GDP from agriculture and forestry activities, disaggregated by subsistence, domestic and export
Proportion of labour force engaged in agriculture and forestry activities
Volume and value of domestic production of agriculture and forestry products
Area of arable land as proportion of total land area.
Area of cultivated agricultural land as proportion of total land area
Area of forested land as proportion of total land area
Area of reserved/protected land as proportion of total land areas
Area of reserved/protected land as proportion of cultivated arable land
Volume and value of trade (imports, exports and re exports) of agricultural and forestry products
Prices of domestic and international agriculture and forestry commodities
Rate of deforestation
Rate of land degradation (e.g. soil erosion)
Rate of biodiversity loss
Contribution of locally grown foods to diets
Diversity of diets
Proportion of budget allocation for agriculture, disaggregated by extension services, research, information dissemination etc.
FAO Stat
• FAO estimates of production data for key commodities
even in the absence of official dataLink: http://faostat.fao.org/
Food Balance Sheets
• Useful to estimate impact of climate event, or adaptation
project, on food security and nutritional outcomes
• Measure the food availability per capita by measuring:
– Domestic production + imports - exports - non-human
uses (seed) = food available for human consumption
• Also contains nutritional statistics
• Dirk Schulz, FAO Food and Nutritional Office (based in
Samoa) • Link:
[email protected]
http://faostat.fao.org/site/368/default.aspx#ancor
Pacific Trade Statistics Database
Potato Imports to Fiji
FAO World Food Situation
• Food Price indices - keeps track of
common global food commodity prices
• Cereal Supply and Demand Brief –
wheat, course grain, rice
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/
Climate Data
• Useful to estimate probability and severity of disaster, direction
of climate change
• Pacific Climate Futures
http://www.pacificclimatefutures.net/
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National reports
Basic, Intermediate, Advanced Mode
• Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/
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Helps predict frequency of tropical cyclones
• Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/EXTEAPREGTOPRURDEV/0,,contentMDK:22739959~pagePK:34004173~piPK:34003707~theSitePK:573964,00.html
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Brochures presenting National Country Risk Profiles have been developed:
Other Studies
Useful contacts and links
3. WHO HAS SECONDARY DATA
Who has secondary data
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National Statistics Offices
Ministries of Agriculture
Central Banks
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) (Dirk Schulz)
Secretariat of the Pacific Community – Statistics for Development
Program (Gerald Haberkorn)
Pacific Climate Change Science Program – (formerly – Gillian
Cambers)
World Bank (web site)
Asian Development Bank – Mark Overmars
If in doubt, ask me (Jonathan Bower, Land Resources Division, SPC)
National Statistics Office Sites
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Palau
Papua New Guinea
Fiji
Solomon Islands
- http://www.palaugov.net/stats/
- http://www.nso.gov.pg/
- http://www.statsfiji.gov.fj/
- http://www.spc.int/prism/country/sb/stats/
Thank you
TANGIO TUMAS/TENKYU TRU/THANK YOU/VINAKA VAKALEVU/SULANG/KO RABWA/TUBWA KOR/MALO
'AUPITO/FA'AFETAI TELE LAVA/MERCI BEAUCOUP/KIA MANUIA/KIAORA KOE/KOMOL TATA/FAKAUE
LAHI/SI YU'US MA'ÅSE‘/TEKE RAOI/KALANGAN/FAKAFETAI
Jonathan Bower
Resource Economist, Land Resources Division
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
[email protected]
+679 337 0733 – ext 35425
lrdeconomics.wordpress.com
Also available from ‘information and networks’ tab at www.spc.int/lrd