Transcript Hetty Green
Howland Will Case Robinson v. Mandell, 20 F. Cas. 1027 (C.C.D. Mass. 1868) (No. 11,959) Please sign your name three times on a sheet of paper. Fact Summary • 1836- Hetty Robinson goes to live with her grandfather and aunt, Sylvia Ann Howland • January 11, 1862- Sylvia and Hetty write respective wills • Between 1862 and 1863- Sylvia’s physician, Dr. Gordon, writes a letter to Hetty that Sylvia will no longer receive Hetty at her home • September 1, 1863- Sylvia signs another will • November 18, 1864- Sylvia signs a codicil • July 2, 1865- Sylvia dies and leaves an estate worth over $2 million • August 1865- Hetty contests the will claiming Sylvia was not mentally competent • November 1865- Hetty withdraws August case • December 2, 1865- Hetty sues executors of Sylvia’s will • November 14, 1868- Hetty’s case is dismissed • December 17, 1868- Hetty appeals but later settles with the trustees Comparison of the Wills January 11, 1862 Will • Majority of estate left to Hetty • $100,000 left to friends, causes, institutions • Hetty was also to write a will giving money to her future children or Sylvia’s causes • Both were to exclude Hetty’s father from any inheritance • Alleged amended page that made any subsequent wills invalid September 1, 1863/ November 18, 1864 Will • Half of estate left to Hetty in a trust • Half of estate left to friends, causes, institutions • Paid out by Executor Thomas Mandell, Dr. Gordon(Sylvia’s doctor), etc. as they deemed fit The Trial Prosecution • • • • • • • • Dr. Oliver Wendell Holmes Louis Agassiz John Quincy Adams J.C. Crossman George Morse John Lowell George Mathiot Thomas Mullin • Samuel Swett • Joseph Willard Defense • • • • • • • • • • • George Sawyer Albert Southworth George Comer James Congdon Charles Putnam Solomon Lincoln George Phippen, Jr. Joseph Paine John Williams Benjamin Peirce Charles Sanders Peirce The Statistics Were the signatures forged? • Null hypothesis: Signatures are authentic • Count number and position of downstrokes on 42 undisputed signatures • 861 pairs to check and 30 different downstrokes = 25,830 comparisons • Agreement 20.6% of time • Product rule= 0.206^30= chance that signatures are identical The Model The Statistics Points of Consideration • 0.206^30 does not equal “once in 2,666 millions of millions of millions” • 20 cases agreed 13-30 times • Model does not fit data at tails • Always assumed independence • Did not look at probability of matches in certain positions • Did not review signatures made closer in time References Howland, S. A. (1890). The Howland will case. The American Law Register (1852-1891), 38(9, New Series Volume 29 (Second Series, Vol. 3)), 562-581. Meier, P., & Zabell, S. (1980). Benjamin Peirce and the Howland will. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75(371), 497-506. Schneps, L., & Colmez, C. (2013). Math on trial: How numbers get used and abused in the courtroom. New York: Basic Books. Slack, C. (2004). Hetty: The genius and madness of America's first female tycoon. New York: ECCO. Sparkes, B., & Moore, S. T. (1930). Hetty Green: A woman who loved money. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, Doran. Wallach, J. (2012). The richest woman in America: Hetty Green in the gilded age. New York: Nan A. Talese/Doubleday.