Transcript 19th July, 2016 Post 16 Challenges Sandra Mcnally at LSE

Evaluating education options
post-16
Sandra McNally
Centre for Vocational Education Research, LSE
CVER: Who we are
• BIS funded research centre from March 2015 for 3-5 years
• LSE-led consortium of four institutions
Institutions/node leaders are:
- LSE: Sandra McNally
- University of Sheffield: Steven McIntosh
- Institute of Employment Studies: Stefan Speckesser
- London Economics: Gavan Conlon
• Mostly economists doing quantitative research with large-scale
administrative data sets and surveys
Website: http://cver.lse.ac.uk/
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[email protected]
18+
14
17-18
Phase
Curriculum
stages
Tertiary
Year
Qualifications
Level 4 &
above
Institutions
Higher
education
institutions
12
15-16
11
14-15
10
13-14
9
12-13
8
11-12
7
10-11
6
9-10
8-9
7-8
6-7
5-6
4-5
0-4
5
4
3
2
1
R
Notes:
*
**
Lower secondary
16-17
Upper sec
Level 3
Key Stage 5
Key Stage 4
A/AS
levels/Applied
Generals/Tech
Levels
Sixth form
colleges /
Schools
Qualifications
Classroombased
13
Further
education
colleges
Entry level level 3
Vocational,
technical
education and
remedial
education
Institutions
Employer-based Further education
colleges
Level 2 - Level 6
Private education
Apprenticeships
providers
and other on-the
job education and
Other public
training
providers
Level 2**
GCSEs
Secondary schools
Key Stage 3
National tests
Primary
Post compulsory
Compulsory education*
Age
Key Stage 2
Primary schools
Key Stage 1
Reception
Pre-school
Teacher
assessments
Pre-school settings
The leaving age in England where individuals must engage in some form of education or training became 17 in 2013 and 18 in 2015.
Level 2 in GCSEs is achieved with grades A*-C
Post-16 choices in England
(Hupkau, McNally, Ruiz-Valenzuela, Ventura)
• We create a panel for ages 16-20 for the cohort of 2010
KS4 completers (turning 16 and taking GCSEs in 2010)
• We use data from
– National Pupil Database for prior attainment (age 11 (KS2)
and age 16 (KS4)
– …and for age 18 (KS5) outcomes
– Higher Education Statistics Agency for university
attendance
– Individual Learner Record for further education
Level 3 and 4+ qualifications
Level 4 and above:
• Bachelor degrees and other vocational qualifications at Level
4 and above
Level 3 :
• A-Levels
• Applied Generals
• Tech Levels
• Key Skills / Functional Skills or NVQs
• Other Level 3
Example of an Applied General
•
Pearson BTEC Level 3 Extended Diploma in Environmental Sustainability (QCF)
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
Entry requirements:
–
–
•
4 GCSEs at grades A*- C OR
BTEC Level 2 portfolio with a Merit or Distinction
Characteristics:
–
–
–
•
Sustainable Development
Business and the Environment
Water & Waste Management
Pollution Control and Management
Coastal Management
Transport and Urban Planning
Natural Resources
2 year programme, 1080 GLH (= 3 A levels of 360 GLH each)
Assessment: Course work, case studies, no exams
A triple distinction = UCAS Tariff points as 3 As at A-Level
What you can do next:
–
–
Higher education (Construction and the Built Environment HNC, Construction Sustainable Design BSc (Hons),
Construction Project Management BSc (Hons) or Construction Building Surveying BSc (Hons).
Typical career routes are Sustainability, Energy Management, Building Management and Estate
Management.
6
Example of a Tech Level
•
City & Guilds level 3 Subsidiary Diploma in Animal Management
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
Dog Grooming, Kennel and Cattery Management
Principles of Zoological Animal Health and Husbandry
Animal Breeding and Genetics
Planning and Monitoring Feeding
Managing Animal Accommodation
Animal Handling and Safe Working
Animal Biology, Anatomy and Physiology, Investigative Project
Entry requirements:
– Level 2 Certificate, Extended Certificate or Diploma in Animal Care and/or previous practical
experience within an animal care environment
•
Characteristics:
– 360 GLHs
– 40 to 140 UCAS points, broadly equivalent to 1 A level
•
What you can do next:
– This qualification could lead to employment:
•
•
•
Animal Trainer
Pet Store Manager
Kennel Manager
– Further training;
– Learners may go onto Higher Education as these qualifications have UCAS points
7
Level 2 qualifications and below
Level 2
• Tech Certificate
• Vocational qualifications at Level 2:
–
–
–
–
BTECs at level 2 that do not fall under the Tech Certificate category,
NVQs at level 2,
Diplomas, Awards or Certificates at level 2
and any other qualifications at level 2 that do not fall into any of the
aforementioned categories.
• Key/Functional Skills at Level 2
• GCSEs
Below Level 2: All those with highest level of learning at L1 and below.
Apprenticeships
Unknown
Not observed
Composition of learners at different ages (cohort undertaking GCSEs in 2009/10)
Above level 3
Age 17
%
0
Age 18
%
0.04
Age 19
%
25.32
Age 20
%
35.44
A-Levels
Applied Generals
Tech Levels
KS/NVQ Level 3
Other Level 3
44.67
5.38
4.45
0.05
3.54
37.96
9.27
7.41
0.42
5.19
5.96
5.6
4.77
0.43
3.09
0.29
1.33
1.9
0.19
1.46
1.79
9.53
0.49
0.87
1.84
6.91
0.34
0.25
1.11
3.99
0.35
0.24
0.6
2.59
0.23
0.2
Below level 2
10.86
5.91
4.64
3.68
Apprenticeships
Apprenticeship Level 2
Apprenticeship Level 3
Apprenticeship Level 4+
5.57
1.27
0
7.99
2.98
0.02
7.85
5.62
0.15
7.16
6.07
0.23
Unknown qualification
Not observed
5.49
6.05
1.65
11.82
0
30.88
0
38.63
Level 3 qualifications
Level 2 qualifications
Tech Certificates
Vocational qualifications at level 2
Key/Functional Skills Level 2
GCSEs
Level 1 and entry level
Composition of Learners by activity at age 17
Stay-on
Age 18
Main activity at age 17
Level 3
Any level 3 qualification
A-Levels
Applied Generals
Tech Levels
Other Level 3
Level 3 Commence Commence
qual by
apprent:
L3 apprent:
age 20
age 18-20
age 18-20
Univ.
Degree
Russell
Group
other
Level
4+
Total
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
63.4
49.3
5.6
4.7
3.7
79.7
62.8
6.8
5.7
4.4
38.8
25.9
5.0
4.2
3.8
41.8
30.0
4.4
4.3
3.2
93.2
83.5
4.5
3.4
1.7
96.4
94.5
0.9
0.5
0.4
77.7
47.7
10.4
12.8
6.8
58.1
44.8
5.3
4.5
3.5
12.0
1.6
8.4
1.3
14.1
2.1
12.0
1.7
2.2
0.1
0.4
0.0
9.1
1.0
12.7
1.8
9.0
6.4
10.7
9.2
1.9
0.3
7.6
Level 1 and entry level
Below level 2
9.9
2.6
9.6
5.2
0.2
0.1
1.4
10.9
Apprenticeship
7.0
4.2
27.8
34.2
0.8
0.4
6.1
6.9
Unknown
Not observed
5.3
2.
4.0
1.1
5.0
4.7
4.1
2.7
2.7
1.0
1.5
1.3
3.8
1.9
5.5
6.0
507,304
386,959
118,187
46,814
192,781
43,395
Level 2
Any level 2 qualification
Tech Certificates
Vocational qualifications at level
2
Total
9.5
23,087 574,967
Activity at age 17: Share ever eligible for free school meals in each main category
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Activity at age 17: Share achieving 5+ GCSEs at A*-C
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Probability of achieving a Level 3 qualification by age 20
(relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Activity at age 17
No controls
All controls
Probability of starting an apprenticeship between age 18-20
(relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
-0.02
A-Levels
Applied Generals
Tech Levels
Other Level 3
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.1
Activity at age 17
No controls
All controls
Tech Certs
Vocational L2
Individual-level data
•
Individualised Learner Record (ILR)
– Learner participation and achievement in Further/Vocational Education sector (further
education colleges, sixth form colleges, independent learning providers, local authorities
and voluntary and community organisations)
– Funding allocation to providers (FE and work based) in academic, plus research
– Socio-demographic data such as age, gender, ethnicity and address.
– Traditionally (until 2010/11) collected by funding stream
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Further education (learner responsive);
Work-based learning (employer responsive);
Train to Gain (employer responsive);
University for Industry (LearnDirect);
Adult Safeguarded Learning;
Adult and Community Learning;
European Social Fund.
– In each stream: Learner data, learning aims data and aggregate provider-level reconciliation
statistics (known as an admin file)
– Learning Aims Database. In total we were supplied with 159 separate ILR files covering the
period 2002/3 to 2010/11.
•
FE Outcomes Data (FEO) links 54 million learner and almost 114 million learning
aims records
Facilitating data access
• Make our ‘data wiki’ more widely available
• We have approached the Administrative Data
Research Network (ADRN) about an option to
offer an access mechanism (in a controlled
environment) to some of the data sets in
CVER. They are discussing this with BIS.
16
Data Wiki