Transcript Introduction - Open Online Courses

Introduction to Risk
Analysis in Healthcare
Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
Professor of Health Administration and Policy
College of Health and Human Services, George Mason University
4400 University Drive, Fairfax, Virginia 22030
703 993 1929 [email protected]
Scope of Topic
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From introduction to probability
to probabilistic risk analysis
Subjective probability assessment
 Conditional likelihood ratios
 Causal modeling
 Bayesian networks
 Time to the event assessment
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Tools you can use at work
Logical reasoning
Not More of the Usual
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Teach by application
Continuous distributions not
covered
Focus on contingency tables
Focus on Modeling
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Rules of probability
Causes and effects
Model complex tasks
 Estimated probabilities
 Check assumptions
 Ask “what if” questions
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Other Books
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Feldman RM, Valdez-Flores C.
Applied Probability and
Stochastic Processes
Hallenbeck W. Quantitative Risk
Analysis for Environmental and
Occupational Health
Bedford T, Cooke R. Probabilistic
Risk Analysis: Foundations and
Methods
Cox LA. Risk Analysis:
Foundations, Models and
Methods
Why Do Risk Analysis?
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Allocate resources
Reduce
 Manage
 Insure
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Provides an organization with
insight
Why Probabilistic Analysis?
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To compare one risk against
another
Consistent method of
aggregating risk of a sequence
of events
Why Probabilistic Analysis?
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To compare one risk against
another
Consistent method of
aggregating risk of a sequence
of events
Criticism of PRA
1.
2.
3.
It cannot be done because
catastrophic events are rare
It is not practical as it takes
too much time
It should not be done
because it misses creative
new threats
Criticism of PRA
1.
2.
3.
It cannot be done because
catastrophic events are rare
It is not practical as it takes
too much time
It should not be done
because it misses creative
new threats
Criticism of PRA
1.
2.
3.
It cannot be done because
catastrophic events are rare
It is not practical as it takes
too much time
It should not be done
because it misses creative
new threats
History in Aerospace Industry
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1967 Apollo flight loss
1969 Probability of loss 1%
1983 probabilistic risk analysis
of shuttle flights
NASA administrators abandon
PRA
 Later events proved accuracy of
analysis
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Common practice
History in Nuclear Safety
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Reactor Safety study
Three Mile Island accident
Probability of reactor melt down
NRC manual for risk analysis
Assessment of other
catastrophic events
History in Natural Disasters
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Earthquake predictions
Floods and coastal designs
Environmental pollution
Waste disposal and
environmental health
History in Healthcare
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Root causes of sentinel adverse
events
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Failure mode analysis of near
catastrophic events
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Typically not quantified risk
Typically based on rank order of
risks
New drug development
History in Terrorism
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Cyber terrorism risks
Department of Homeland
Security Critical Infrastructure
Protection
Requirements Prior to Start
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Algebra, not calculus
Facile with numbers and counting
Access to a software for Bayesian analysis
Software to make contingency tables
No prior course in probability
No course in statistics
No computer programming
Some knowledge of health care systems
Access to an organization to try out the
ideas
Expectations
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Probabilistic analysis
Apply to a realistic problem
No exams
No other assignments
Pedagogical Features
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Learn one, do one, teach one
assignments in class
Question and answer
Take home message
Peer to peer comments
Primary Audience
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Graduate course on risk
analysis
Professionals in the field
Secondary Audience
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These lectures may also be of
use to students of probability
and causal modeling.
Lecture Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
What is probability?
Probability distributions
Assessment of rare probabilities
Calculus of probability
Conditional independence
Causal modeling
Case based learning
Validation of risk models
Examples
Lecture Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
What is probability?
Probability distributions
Assessment of rare probabilities
Calculus of probability
Conditional independence
Causal modeling
Case based learning
Validation of risk models
Examples
Lecture Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
What is probability?
Probability distributions
Assessment of rare probabilities
Calculus of probability
Conditional independence
Causal modeling
Case based learning
Validation of risk models
Examples
Lecture Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
What is probability?
Assessment of rare probabilities
Calculus of probability
Conditional independence
Causal modeling
Case based learning
Validation of risk models
Examples
Lecture Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
What is probability?
Assessment of rare probabilities
Calculus of probability
Conditional independence
Causal modeling
Case based learning
Validation of risk models
Examples
Lecture Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
What is probability?
Assessment of rare probabilities
Calculus of probability
Conditional independence
Causal modeling
Case based learning
Validation of risk models
Examples
Lecture Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
What is probability?
Assessment of rare probabilities
Calculus of probability
Conditional independence
Causal modeling
Case based learning
Validation of risk models
Examples
Lecture Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
What is probability?
Assessment of rare probabilities
Calculus of probability
Conditional independence
Causal modeling
Case based learning
Validation of risk models
Examples
Lecture Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
What is probability?
Assessment of rare probabilities
Calculus of probability
Conditional independence
Causal modeling
Case based learning
Validation of risk models
Examples
Take Home Lesson
Tools that are better than
comprehensive list of risks
What Do You Know?
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Why is probabilistic risk analysis
preferred to comprehensive lists
of vulnerabilities?
What Do You Know?
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How is our approach to risk
analysis different from other
books on probability or on risk
analysis?
What Do You Know?
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What is assumed and required
prior to start of these lectures?
What Do You Know?
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What is expected from you prior
to end of this course?
Minute Evaluations

Please use the course web site
to ask a question and rate this
lecture