Transcript NCEP Production Suite Review Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Production Suite Review
Aviation Weather Center
Jason Levit and Amy Harless
December 7, 2011
Kansas City, MO
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center
AWC Mission and Vision
Statement
“The Aviation Weather Center delivers consistent,
timely, and accurate weather information to the
world airspace system. We are a team of highly skilled
people dedicated to working with customers and
partners to enhance safe and efficient flight.”
“To be the trusted authority and leading innovator for
aviation weather information.”
Weather is only a small part
of the entire NextGen enterprise
The “Game-Changer”…
•
8 August 2009
• Express Jet Flight 2816
•
IAH to MSP, diverted to ROC at 0300
•
Deplaned at 0600
• Passenger “Bill of Rights”
• “Three-Hour” Tarmac Rule in place 29 April 2010
• Up to $27,500 per passenger
fine
•
Bolstered need for extended
forecasting; no longer
press-to-fail mentality
Air Traffic Complexity
Courtesy Aaron Koblin – http://www.aaronkoblin.com
Air Traffic Complexity
Courtesy Aaron Koblin – http://www.aaronkoblin.com
Aviation Weather Center
Operations
CONUS
• 2 convective desks
• 3 area forecast desks
International
• 1 area forecast desk
• 2 global graphics desks
Web
• Aviation Digital Data
Services
• testbed.aviationweather.gov
Aviation Weather Center
What’s New?
Testbed activities: Summer Experiments
• Moving towards “content creation” vs “content
management”
Four new positions:
• Two GS-14 “National Aviation Meteorologists” at the
Air Traffic Control Command Center – Dec 2011
• NextGEN Support Scientist (CIRA) – Dec 2011
• GOES-R Specialist (CIMSS) – Jan/Feb 2012
Aviation Weather Center
2011 Evaluations
Hires Window Upgrade (Feb – Mar 2011)
GFS Upgrade (Mar – Apr 2011)
NAM Upgrade (Jun – Oct 2011)
RUC -> RAP (Rapid Refresh) Upgrade (Present)
General perception:
•
Increase in skill with all upgrades
•
Great teamwork and collaboration on evalulations
Data Acquired (GEMPAK)
•
GFS, 1° x 1°, 3 hrly to F48, soundings
•
NAM, 90 km and 64 km, 3 hrly to F48, soundings
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WRM-NMM high res window, hrly to F48
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NSSL WRF-NMM, thinned, 3 hrly to F48
•
RUC, 40 km, hrly to F18, soundings
•
SREF, hrly to 39, 3 hrly to 87
•
SFCOA, hrly (via SPC)
•
UKMET, 1.25° x 1.25°, 6 hrly to F48
Aviation Weather Center
Example NWP Applications
1 Hour
Calibrated
SREF CCFP
Conditions
FCST: F006 Valid: Wed 20111012/2100UTC
Forecaster Issued CCFP
FCST: F012
Valid: Wed 20111012/2100UTC
Aviation Weather Center
Example NWP Applications
All Flights > 25 kft
Impact of Thunderstorms: > 25 kft
Combine composite aircraft position data with
SREF probabilistic weather information
Aviation Weather Testbed
Test and Evaluate existing and emerging datasets
•
High Resolution Guidance
• 2011 Summer Experiment
• Operational Bridging
• Traffic Impact
• Convective Initiation
•
Ensembles
• Calibration
• Traffic Impact
• ECFP Enhancement
Testbed Activities:
2011 AWT Summer Experiment
2011 Aviation Weather Testbed
Summer Experiment
Data Set
Source
Status
Comments
12-member 4km WRF-ARW
Ensemble
DoD/AFWA
Active
18Z start, 36-hour forecast,
data starts at 00Z
Derivied Traffic Impact Potential
NCAR
Active
Derivied from AFWA
Ensemble
3km HRRR
GSD
Active
Hourly
Short-Range Ensemble
EMC
Active
Every six hours
Convective NearCast - Satellite
GOES-R/CIMSS
Active
Fifteen minute updates
Convective Initiation - Satellite
GOES-R/CIMMS
Active
Fifteen minute updates
Convective Probability
MDL
Active
NextGen Capability
Evaluation
CoSPA
MIT/LL
Active
CCFP first-guess polygons
NAEFS
EMC
Active - AFWA
Every six hours
15
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
Model Forecasts
GOES-R
Aviation Impact Data
• Can high res models provide insight into potential air traffic impact?
• Will an ensemble show convective mode, morphology, porosity correctly?
• Will “Nearcast” data reveal areas of convective initiation that other observation
platforms miss?
• Can impact data help forecasters correctly focus on specific threat regions?
• Are CoSPA CCFP first guess fields/forecasts accurate?
Data Visualization
• Are the displays of data adequate? Colors, contours, strengths, weaknesses?
• What types of unique displays can be created via data mining techniques?
Forecast Process
• Will experimental data sets help improve an ingredients-based approach to the
convection forecast process? Enhance efficiency?
Decision Support
• Should the AWC move towards probabilistic forecasts of convection?
• How should we visualize and communicate forecasts? Dashboard? Graphic?
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Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
High Resolution
Rapid Refresh
•
Comp.
Reflectivity
•
Top 25 Jet
Routes
AFWA Ensemble
Probability of Echo Tops >= 25 kft with Top 25 Jet Routes
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
NCAR Airspace Capacity Reduction
•Probability
of airspace
capacity reductions in
East-West and NorthSouth direction by
25% and 50% at flight
levels 20, 30, 40 kft
•Based
on CoSPA
gridded data and
AFWA Ensemble
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
LAMP Convective
Probability
Probability of
convection defined
as the occurrence
of reflectivity
≥ 40 dBZ
and/or one or more
cloud-to-ground
lightning strike within
a 20 grid box and a 2
hour time period.
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
GOES-R Nearcast Product
•
Short-term Lagrangian trajectory model
•
Incorporates retrieved parameters from
GOES sounder data
•
1-9 hour projections of GOES moisture and
temperature retrievals
•
RUC background model
•
Hourly timestamps
•
Provides information on upper-level
dryness, low-level moisture gradients, and
total thermodynamic energy
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
•
Aviation Weather Impact Graphics
Highlight important weather features for
air traffic management for 18z and 00z for
Golden Triangle
Highlight areas of 30% and 60% probability of
exceeding comp. reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZ and echo tops
≥ 37 kft from 18Z to 00Z for the Golden Triangle
Aviation Weather Testbed
Decision Support: Traffic Flow
Management
•
Support National Airspace Traffic Flow Management
• Mitigate the impacts of weather phenomenon including convection, icing,
turbulence, and volcanic ash
•
“3-hour” Tarmac Rule
• Congressional interest in flight delays raised due to 2007 performance,
NextGen WX supported to mitigate future delays
•
Support Operational Bridging Activities
• Filling the gap between strategic planning and tactical planning (2 hours)
by implementing a suite of forecasting and communication tools
• Merging the understanding of atmospheric conditions and impact on the
National Air Space (NAS) with innovative forecasting techniques and
communication tools
Operational Bridging
Operational Bridging
•
Reconcile multiple sources of weather to evolve
the CCFP concept: maintain collaboration
•
Demonstrate NextGen weather concepts
• Human Over The Loop of automation-driven forecasts
• Single Authoritative Source
•
Focus on evolving forecast from strategic to
tactical time frames
•
Aviation application of Decision Support
Services
Winter Weather Dashboard
Requests/Suggestions/Wish List
•
Increased demand for high-resolution models
•
Microphysics upgrades
CI products (application of GOES-R derived
products)
Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity
•
•
• Mine for aviation impact, aviation-related variables
•
•
Ceiling, visibility, turbulence, wind shear, convection
History variables, interrogate model at each time-step
•
HRRR-E
•
Details provided for SREF upgrade
Frequent HRRR outages
•
High Resolution Model Needs
•
Convective porosity, morphology, mode
•
Convective initiation
•
Hourly max variables, max change
•
Reforecasts for calibration
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Ensembles: post processed statistics
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Radar data initialization/diabatic adjustment
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Increased bandwidth
•
Faster load in NMAP2/AWIPS2
Thank you!
Great team effort:
• Model evaluations (collaboration with SPC/HPC)
• Response to requests
• 24x7 support of dataflow
• Model upgrades