Transcript ICSB3: DRPM Measures

Biophysics 101, Tue 8-Sep-2009
Genomics, Computing, Economics
Thanks to:
RBH
Azco
1
Class outline
(1) Topic priorities for homework since last class
(2) Quantitative exercise
(3) Discuss communication/presentation tools
(4) Topic priorities, homework for next class
(5) Project tools discussion
(1) Topic priorities for homework since last class
(a) Your notes
(b) Followup on the "experiment" from Tue:
Tversky & Kahneman (1974) Judgement under Uncertainty:
Heuristics and Biases. Science 185:1124).
(c) Exponential growth Spreadsheet & Python examples
Human subject experimentation
7 questions. 5 seconds each
1. Estimate 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
2. From a group "of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers: Dick is a 30 year old man.
He is married with no children. A man of high motivation, he promises to be
quite successful in his field. He is well liked by his colleagues." What is the
probability that Dick is an engineer?
3. Write down a string of 10 random H & T characters.
4. From 10 people, how many different committees of 2 members? 8 members?
5. One person draws 4 red balls & 1 white. Another 12 red & 8 white. What
odds should each individual give that the source is 2/3 red (rather than 2/3
white)?
6. Estimate 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8
1 (& 6): 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 (& rev) Actual: 40320
1974 median: 2250 descending; 512 ascending
Human
experiment
results
2: The probability that Dick is an engineer should be 70:30 in one case
and 30:70 in the other with odds ratio = (70/30)/(30/70) = 5.44
1974: observed ratio was close to 1.0.
3: n=2,3,4,5,6 in a row are quite likely (.998, .9, .61, .32, .14)
1974: more than two in row (HH or TT) were rarely chosen.
4: 10 people, # committees of 2 or 8 members?
Actual: C(10,2)=C(10,8)=45
1974 median for 2 was 70; for 8 was 20.
C(n,i)= n!/[i!(n-i)!]
Human experiment results
5: 4/5 vs 12/20 -- which better supports 2/3 red rather than 2/3 white?
1974: Most people felt 4/5 (80%) is better evidence than 12/20 (60%)
Actual: [C(5,4)(2/3)^4 (1/3) / C(5,1)(2/3)(1/3)^4]= 8 odds ratio
[C(20,12)(2/3)^12 (1/3)^8 / C(20,8)(2/3)^8(1/3)^12]= 16
Hence, programming in statistics &
economics
Mechanical-Analog: slide rule (1620)
Mechanical-Digital: Babbage (1837), DigiComp (1963)
Electronic-Analog: 1940s
Electronic Digital -- Procedural, imperative languages:
Basic(’63), Lisp(’58), Algol, Cobol(’59), Fortran(’54), C(‘72),
IBM360-Assembly(’64), FORMAC, APL, PL/I
Dynamic languages: Perl(‘87), Python(‘91).
Spreadsheets: double-entry bookkeeping (12th Century)
Electronic Mattessich (’61). PC:Bricklin’s Visicalc (’79),
Excel(’85), public spreadsheets (’70) Wikicalc etc.
http://www.meccano.us/analytical_engine/P1010006.MOV
Exp.py
# File: Exp.py
# http://www.python.org/download/
# http://matplotlib.sourceforge.net/users/installing.html (EPD)
# http://matplotlib.sourceforge.net/users/pyplot_tutorial.html
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
t1 = np.arange(0.0, 5.0, 0.1)
plt.plot(t1, np.exp(t1), 'ro')
plt.show()
Exp.xls
0.035
0.03
A3 =k*A2
0.025
0.02
A3 =k*A2*(1-A2)
0.015
0.01
A3 =MAX(k*A2*(1-A2),0)
0.005
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65
try k=
0.9,
1.01, 1.1,
1.5, 3, 3.67859, 4, 4.03
Vertebrate
brain size
evolution
Human-chimp 1.2%
Human-human 0.1%
Genome: 2x 3Gbp
Ongoing Adaptive Evolution of ASPM, a Brain Size Determinant in Homo sapiens Science 2005
Bond et al 2002 ASPM is a major determinant of cerebral cortical size. Nat Genet. 32(2):316-20.
Jerison, Paleoneurology & the Evolution of Mind, Scientific Amer. 1976
The Future of Human Nature
http://www.bu.edu/pardee/events/conferences/2003/nature-program.html
The Law of Accelerating Returns Ray Kurzweil
(The Singularity Is Near : When Humans Transcend Biology)
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological
change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive
linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the
21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at
today's rate). .. ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward
in the universe at the speed of light.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1
Bill Joy Wired 8.04 | Apr 2000
Our most powerful 21st-century technologies - robotics, genetic
engineering, and nanotech - are threatening to make humans
an endangered species.
Inheritance is not just DNA
Inheritance is not just DNA
Past
Locomotion
50 km/h
Ocean depth 75 m
Visible l
.4-.7 m
Temperature 275-370
Memory time 20 yr
Memory
1E9 bits
Compute speed 1E14 ops
Compute energy 5E12 op/J
Current
26720 km/h
10,912 m
pm-Mm
3-1900oK
5000 yr
1E17 bits
1E14 ops
5E12 op/J
http://www.techworld.com/opsys/features/index.cfm?fuseaction=displayfeatures&featureid=467&page=1&pagepos=5
http://www.merkle.com/humanMemory.html