Transcript 20k annually

Disasters as a “Teachable Moment”
Sustainability course (Prof. Tom Chandler)
Lecturer: David Abramson, PhD MPH
National Center for Disaster Preparedness
Columbia Mailman School of Public Health
2 Aug 2011
The Calculus of Disaster Risk
• probability of type
• warning/surveillance
• pr of duration
• land use policy
• pr of force
• building codes
• pr of magnitude
• insurance
• sustainable develop.
Risk = (Hazard x Vulnerability) - Adjustments - Response systems
• death
• economic loss
• social disruption
• failure to recover
• physical (e.g., natural barriers such as
wetlands, atmospheric protection)
• human (social, organizational, political)
• structural (built environment, critical
infrastructure)
• capacity
• capability/ functionality
• inter-organizational connectedness
(integration, coordination,
communication)
• equity
Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness
5 Propositions
1. All disasters are local
2. Disasters are political events
3. Disasters are socially-constructed phenomena
– And/or, disasters are historical events with social
consequences
4. Individual preparedness matters
5. Risk can be managed… but resilience must be
cultivated
Disasters are local
6
Disasters are political events
Presidentially Declared Disasters from
1953-2011
Number of Disaster Declarations
90
80
70
# of Declarations
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Year
Policy Instruments & Direction
• Homeland Security Act of 2002
• National Response Plan / Framework
– 15 Emergency Support Functions
• National Incident Management System (NIMS)
• Incident Command Structure (ICS)
• PAHPA 2006 (Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act of 2006)
• Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006
• Homeland Security Presidential Directive 21 (HSPD-21)
• Federal Stafford Act
Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness
Disasters are socially-constructed
phenomena
Sense of disaster victimization among a cohort
of Katrina evacuees
Still think of myself
as a victim
Never thought of
myself as a victim
Used to think of
myself as a victim
36.0%
17.6%
46.5%
Black
37.5
20.1
42.5
White
31.4
15.4
53.1
<$20k annually
44.6
13.9
41.6
>$20k annually
22.4
23.4
54.2
TOTAL
By Race
By Household Income
Disasters are socially-constructed phenomena…
with historical consequences
•
•
•
•
Santa Barbara earthquake, 1927
Mississippi flood, 1927
Hurricane Andrew, 1992
World Trade Center attack, 2001
Individual preparedness matters
Trends 2003 - 2008
Q: Do you personally feel prepared or very prepared for a major disaster with
warning such as a hurricane, flood, or wildfire in your community?
Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness
Trends 2003 - 2008
Q: Do you have a family emergency preparedness plan that
all family members know about?
Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness
Trends 2003 - 2008
Q: Are you concerned or very concerned about the possibility
there will be more terror attacks in the US?
Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness
Trends 2003 - 2008
Q: Are you confident or very confident in the government to protect the
area where you live from a terrorist attack?
Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness
Risk can be “engineered,”
but resilience must be cultivated
Comparing Historical Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates and Cigarette
Consumption in the U.S.
5000
4500
25
4000
3500
20
3000
15
2500
2000
10
1500
1000
5
500
0
1900
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
Motor Vehicle Fatality Rate per million Vehicle Miles Travelled
Cigarette Consumption (Per Capita)
Sources: Accessed on May 20, 2010
http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/tables/economics/consumption/index.htm
http://www.saferoads.org/federal/2004/TrafficFatalities1899-2003.pdf
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
per capita
per million vehicle miles travelled
30
Responsible Media
Skills &
infrastructure
Trusted sources of
information
Narratives
Information
and
Fairness of risk &
vulnerability to
hazards
Level & diversity of
economic resources
Critical reflection &
problem solving skills
Communication
Economic
Development
Community
Competence
Equity of resource
distribution
Received (enacted)
social support
Attachment to place
Perceived (expected)
social support
Sense of community
Organizational
linkages &
cooperation
Flexibility & creativity
Collective efficacy
Empowerment
Social Capital
Social
embeddedness
(informal ties)
Community action
Political partnerships
Citizen participation
Leadership & roles
(formal ties)
Norris, FH, et al. Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness. Am J Community Psychol (2008) Mar; 41:127-50.