Transcript Risk Powerpoint

@Risk by Palisade
Janggam Adhityawarma
Matt Rhinehart
Brandon Richardson
Craig Soper
Don Yap
Introduction
Risk Analysis
 Any method - qualitative and/or quantitative for
assessing the impacts of risk on decisions.
 Many Risk Analysis methods blend both
qualitative and quantitative techniques.
 The goal of these methods is to help the
decision-maker choose a course of action.
Features
Uses Monte Carlo simulation to take all
possible outcomes into account.
The result is a distribution of possible
outcomes and the probabilities of getting
those results.
One of the strengths of Monte Carlo
simulation is that it produces enough data to
create accurate graphs. Histograms,
cumulative curves, area and line graphs, etc.
Features +
Create a summary report of results using
the Quick Report command.
Report in Excel containing a histogram, cumulative
curve, Tornado graph, and summary statistics.
Sensitivity Analysis
Determines which input distributions have the biggest
impact on the outputs.
Scenario Analysis
Identifies combinations of inputs - or scenarios - which
lead to output target values.
@Risk Features
True Spreadsheet Add-In
Full Data Report
Tornado Graphs
Toolbars for Most Commands
Reporting in Excel
Scenario Analysis
Office-style Interface
Target Values
Statistics Functions
@RISK Model Window
Histogram, Area, Line, and Cumulative Graphs
Macros - Execute During Simulation
37 Distribution Functions
Fully Customizable Graphs
Macros - Customize with VBA
Fully Integrated RISKview
Summary Graphs
@RISK Goal Seek (Pro and Industrial only)
Fully Integrated BestFit (Professional and Industrial
versions only)
Multiple Summary and Overlay Graphs
Stress Analysis (Pro and Industrial only)
Distribution Palette
Sliding Delimiters on all Graphs
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis (Pro and Industrial)
Alternate (Percentile) Distribution Parameters
Real-time Updating of Graphs
Comprehensive Help File and Tutorial
Correlation of Inputs
Graph in Excel
Integrated RISKOptimizer (Industrial only)
Customizable Simulation Settings
One-step Quick Reports
Integrated @RISKAccelerator (Industrial only)
Convergence Monitoring
Multiple Simulations
Fully Integrated With DecisionTools Suite: @RISK,
BestFit, TopRank, PrecisionTree, and RISKview
Full Statistics Report
Sensitivity Analysis - Multivariate Stepwise Regression
and Rank Order Correlation
Risk Analysis with @RISK
 Risk Analysis in @RISK is a quantitative method that seeks to
determine the outcomes of a decision as a probability distribution.
In general, Risk Analysis with @RISK encompasses four steps:
 1. Develop a Model - Define the problem or situation in an Excel
worksheet format.
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2. Identifying Uncertainty - Determine which model inputs are
uncertain, and represent those using ranges of values with @RISK
probability distribution functions. Identify which result or output of
the model to analyze.
3. Analyzing the Model with Simulation - Run the simulation
to determine the range and probabilities of all possible outcomes
for the outputs identified.
4. Make a Decision - With complete information from analysis
and preferences, make a decision.
Developing a Model
Model construction is based on
spreadsheet data
 Examples:
Launching a new product - impact of potential profits
Potential pollution effects of a new factory on a river
Effectiveness of a new drug therapy on an illness
Exploratory site for oil wells
Identifying Uncertainty
Determine which inputs in your model are
uncertain
Probability distribution functions to represent
a range of possible values
 @RISK takes uncertainty into account
Risk Distribution
RISKview
Best Fit
Analyzing the Model with
Simulation
Capabilities
Specify the number of iterations
Update the spreadsheet in real-time
numerically or graphically
Control the convergence
Use the default settings - @RISK will automate
 Provides a range of possible outcomes and
probabilities of occurrence
Simulation-Optimization
Sensitivity Analysis
Make a Decision
Allows multiple simulations to be run backto-back.
Correlate Inputs for More Accurate Models.
Statistics and Graphing
Custom Applications
Correlation
Graphing and Reporting
Model - Results
Risk Applications
@RISK APPLICATIONS
Capital Budgeting
Insurance
Chemical Process Engineering
Mergers & Acquisitions
Corporate Planning
Mortgage Pricing
Cost Analysis
Operation Research Analysis
Engineering
Petroleum and Mining Resource Evaluations
Environmental Impacts & Policy
Retirement Planning
Financial Risk Analysis
R&D Assessment
Foreign Exchange Assessment
Toxicological Analysis
Health Risk Assessment
And More!
Enhanced Editions
@Risk Professional
Integrated BestFit
Goal Seek
Stress Analysis
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis
@RISK Industrial
RISKOptimizer to Optimize Your Simulation Results
Accelerator
@Risk Pricing
Step 1: Select a Version
Product
Regular Price
Download Only Price
@RISK 4.5 Standard
$710
$685
@RISK 4.5 Professional
$950
$925
@RISK 4.5 Industrial
$1790
$1765
Upgrade to @RISK 4.5 Standard
from @RISK 4.0 Standard
$310
$310
Upgrade to @RISK 4.5 Professional
from @RISK 4.0 Professional
$405
$405
Upgrade to @RISK 4.5 Industrial
from @RISK 4.0 Industrial
$690
$690
Prices include one year of Maintenance, which can be removed from your shopping cart at any time.