Transcript 新Seven

Statistics Without Tears
 The topic of this unit is statistics. Many degree
courses involve some knowledge of statistics,
either because statistics are often quoted in
academic texts, or because students have to
work with statistics for their academic
assignments. Also, statistics are often used by
governments and other organizations to make
decisions which can affect all of our lives. From
this point of view, some understanding to what it
means to think statistically should be useful to
everyone.
 This unit will give you practice in:
1. reading to acquire knowledge;
2. distinguishing between main and minor
points in a text;
3. summarizing information from short
sections of a text.
 Pre-reading task: Statistics in practice
 1. Discuss the following questions in groups. Do you agree on
the answers?
 a) John works in an office. On Monday, he arrived at work at
nine o’clock. On Tuesday, he arrived at work at nine o’clock. On
Wednesday, he arrived at work at nine o’clock. On Thursday, he
arrived at work at nine o’clock. What time do you think he
arrived on Friday? Why?
 b) Your friend wants to show you a magic trick. He tosses a
coin three times, and each time it falls to the ground with heads
facing up. As he goes to toss the coin again, he ask you, Do
you think it will be heads again? and you say No, but when he
tosses the coin, it is heads. He tosses the coin twice more, and
each time it is heads again. You pick up the coin and look at
both sides carefully. What do you expect to see? Why?
 2. Are you sure you have given the correct answers, or could
you be wrong? Is it possible to be absolutely sure about such
predictions? Why ? Why not?
Section 1
 In the discussion tasks you have just
completed, you used your everyday
knowledge of the world to make judgments
about what things are likely or unlikely to
be true, in order to make a prediction
about the current situation. This is an
example of everyday statistical thinking.
The text you are going to read looks at
what it means to think statistically in order
to make predictions.
 1. The first section you are going to read is called Making
Sense of Experience. Read it and tell which of the
following are main points (main) and which are minor
points or examples (minor)? Discuss your answers with the
rest of the class.
 a) We are naturally observant of things around us.
 b) Our observations often involve counting or measuring
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things.
c) our observations may concern how big something is.
d) Sometimes our observations concern a single thing.
e) Sometimes our observations concerns several things.
f) Observations may be made about a crop in a field.
g) We tend to look for connections among the things we
have observed.
 2. Look at the writer’s question in the
last paragraph of section 1. Write down
what you think the answer is one or two
sentences. Compare your ideas with
the rest of the class.
Words (section 1)
 caution: the quality of using great core and
attention, esp.in order to avoid danger 小心，谨
慎，慎重
 endanger: to cause danger to 使遭危害，危及
 generalisation: a general statement that is
based on only a few facts of examples; the act
of making such statements
概括, 归纳
 generalise: to form a general principle, opinion,
etc, after considering only a small number of
the facts概括，作出判断，归纳
 inquisitive：trying to find out (too many
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details about things or people)过分好问的；
好追根究底的
inquisitively: with curiosity过分好问地；好
追根究底地
intuitive: showing or formed by intuition有
直觉力的；凭直觉获知的
intuitively: in an intuitive manner有直觉力
地；凭直觉获知地
jargon: difficult or strange language which
uses words known only to the members of
a certain group（难懂的）行话
 prevalence: the condition of being
prevalent普遍，盛行，流行
 probability: the state of being probable or
the degree to which something is probable;
likelihood可能性
 statistical: relating to statistics统计的
 statistics: the science of dealing with and
explaining a collection of numbers 统计学
Collocations
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Make sense of=to understand 理解
Gain control over sth. 控制……
Involve sb. in sth. 使……做……
Rough-and-ready fashion 权宜之计
In terms of 以……为单位，就……而言
Make observations about sth./on sb. 观察关
于……/观察……
 Size of the potato-crop 土豆产量
 Over a succession of years 连续的几年
 A collection of observations=data 观察的收集
 Revision 1:
 Make sense of: 搞清……的意思
 To somebody’s advantage: 对某人有利
 In rough-and-ready fashion: 以潦草的方
式
 A succession of : 一连串
Section 2
 Vital
 generalize
 Jump to conclusion
 Be cautious about sth.
 Feel inclined to do sth.
Section 3
 Summarizing the key points
Use a word or phrase from the box below
and put the correct number in each gap in
the sentences which follow.
section3.doc
Section 3
 due用法1
 表示“到期的”、“应付(给)的”、“到期应付的”，通常只用作表
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语。如：
The bill is due. 这张票据已到期。
My salary is due tomorrow. 我明天领薪。
表示应付给或应给予某人，通常与介词 to 连用。如：
A great deal of money is due to you. 要付给你一大笔钱。
Respect is due to older people. 年长者应受到尊重。
Our grateful thanks are due to you. 我们衷心感谢你。
due用法2
表示“预定的”、“约定的”、“预定要到达或发生的”，也通常
用作表语。如：
When is the train due? 火车什么时候到?
I’m due for a pay rise soon. 我不久就要加薪了。
其后可接不定式。如:
The guests are due to arrive very soon. 客人很快就会到。
The meeting isn’t due to start until four. 会议预定要到四点才召开。
 due用法3
 表示“适当的”、“合适的”、“应得的”，通常只放在
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名词前作定语。如：
We should pay due attention to this problem. 我们应
对这个问题给予适当的注意。
You must put these things in due order. 你必须把这些
东西按适当的顺序放好。
due用法4
用于 due to(由于，因为)。按照传统语法 due to 主要引
导表语，一般不引导状语。如：
His absence was due to the storm. 他因暴风雨而缺席。
Her success was due to her hard work. 她成功是因为
她努力工作。
但是在现代英语中，due to 也可用来引导状语。如：
He was late due to the very heavy traffic. 由于交通拥
挤他迟到了。
Section3 (continued)
 As for
 Let alone
 In such-and-such a way
section4
 in the long run
 make estimates or predictions
Section 5
 1. a set of 一组一套；．批
 2. apply to 应用于
 3. detergent n a cleansing agent that differs from
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soap but can also emulsify oils and hold dirt in
suspension 洗涤剂，洗洁精
4. genetics n the study of how living things develop
according to the effects of those substances passed
on in the cells from the parents 遗传学
5. humanities n studies such as ancient and modern
literature, history, etc.; the arts 人文学科
6. meteorology n [U] the scientific study of weather
conditions 气象学
7. pottery n [u] pots and other objects made out of
baked clay陶，陶器
 8. pursuit n [c] an activity which one gives
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one's time, whether as work or for pleasure
事务，工作，活动
9. quantitative adj of or about quantity／
amount（数）量的
10. refer to 提到，说起；参考，有关，针对
11. statistically adv. with respect to statistics
统计学上
12. take note 记录;记笔记
13. to o degree 有点儿，稍微，多少有些
14. ubiquitous adj. (esp. of something that
is not liked or approved of) appearing,
happening, or existing everywhere（尤指不喜欢
或反对的事物）无处不在的，普遍存在的
 radio carbon dating 放辐性碳年代测定法;
碳元素年代测定法
Exercises 1
 1. Choose a word from the following list
to complete each sentence below. Be
sure to use the correct form of the word.
Caution
endanger
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jargon prevalence
generalize
probability
intuitive
statistical
 1) The survey showed the ________ of deafness in
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older age group.
2) If unemployment continues to rise, social stability
may be _________.
3) In rock climbing, no amount of skill will make up
for a lack of _________.
4) The ________of catching the disease from your
partner is extremely low.
5) The study group was very small, and it’s hard to
_________from just a few cases.
6) When you first learn about computers, there is a
whole lot of ___________ to understand.
7) Women are supposed to be more ____________
than men, but I don’t know if that’s true.
8) We need _____________ evidence to support the
theory.
 2. Translation task
 1) 我们必须特别谨慎行事。
 2）我们可以从我们研究的实例中作出判断。
 3）如果我们现在不处理这个问题，它再次
出现的可能性很大。
 4）怀孕期间吸烟可能危及到孩子的健康。
 5）她天生有一种判断人能力的本事。
Answers:
1.
1) prevalence 2) endangered 3) caution
4) probability 5) generalize 6) jargon
7) intuitive
8) statistical
2.
1) We must proceed with extreme caution.
2) We can generalize from the example that we have
studied.
3) There is a strong probability that the problem will
recur if we do not deal with it now.
4) Smoking during pregnancy can endanger your
baby’s health.
5) She had an intuitive ability to size up people’s
capabilities.