Transcript Return

Chapter 13
•Return, Risk, and the
Security Market Line
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key Concepts and Skills
•
•
•
•
•
•
Know how to calculate expected returns
Understand the impact of diversification
Understand the systematic risk principle
Understand the security market line
Understand the risk-return trade-off
Be able to use the Capital Asset Pricing
Model
13-1
Chapter Outline
• Expected Returns and Variances
• Portfolios
• Announcements, Surprises, and Expected
Returns
• Risk: Systematic and Unsystematic
• Diversification and Portfolio Risk
• Systematic Risk and Beta
• The Security Market Line
• The SML and the Cost of Capital: A Preview
13-2
Expected Returns
• Expected returns are based on the
probabilities of possible outcomes
• In this context, “expected” means average
if the process is repeated many times
• The “expected” return does not even have
to be a possible return
n
E ( R)   pi Ri
i 1
13-3
Example: Expected Returns
• Suppose you have predicted the following
returns for stocks C and T in three possible
states of nature. What are the expected
returns?
• State
Probability
C
• Boom
0.3
15
• Normal
0.5
10
• Recession ???
2
• RC = .3(15) + .5(10) + .2(2) = 9.99%
• RT = .3(25) + .5(20) + .2(1) = 17.7%
T
25
20
1
13-4
Variance and Standard Deviation
• Variance and standard deviation still
measure the volatility of returns
• Using unequal probabilities for the entire
range of possibilities
• Weighted average of squared deviations
n
σ 2   pi ( Ri  E ( R)) 2
i 1
13-5
Example: Variance and Standard
Deviation
• Consider the previous example. What are the
variance and standard deviation for each stock?
• Stock C
• 2 = .3(15-9.9)2 + .5(10-9.9)2 + .2(2-9.9)2 = 20.29
•  = 4.5
• Stock T
• 2 = .3(25-17.7)2 + .5(20-17.7)2 + .2(1-17.7)2 =
74.41
•  = 8.63
13-6
Another Example
• Consider the following information:
•
•
•
•
•
State
Boom
Normal
Slowdown
Recession
Probability ABC, Inc. (%)
.25
15
.50
8
.15
4
.10
-3
• What is the expected return?
• What is the variance?
• What is the standard deviation?
13-7
Portfolios
• A portfolio is a collection of assets
• An asset’s risk and return are important in
how they affect the risk and return of the
portfolio
• The risk-return trade-off for a portfolio is
measured by the portfolio expected return
and standard deviation, just as with
individual assets
13-8
Example: Portfolio Weights
• Suppose you have $15,000 to invest and
you have purchased securities in the
following amounts. What are your portfolio
weights in each security?
•
•
•
•
$2000 of DCLK
$3000 of KO
$4000 of INTC
$6000 of KEI
•DCLK: 2/15 = .133
•KO: 3/15 = .2
•INTC: 4/15 = .267
•KEI: 6/15 = .4
13-9
Portfolio Expected Returns
• The expected return of a portfolio is the weighted
average of the expected returns for each asset in
the portfolio
m
E ( RP )   w j E ( R j )
j 1
• You can also find the expected return by finding
the portfolio return in each possible state and
computing the expected value as we did with
individual securities
13-10
Example: Expected Portfolio
Returns
• Consider the portfolio weights computed
previously. If the individual stocks have the
following expected returns, what is the expected
return for the portfolio?
•
•
•
•
DCLK: 19.69%
KO: 5.25%
INTC: 16.65%
KEI: 18.24%
• E(RP) = .133(19.69) + .2(5.25) + .167(16.65)
+ .4(18.24) = 13.75%
13-11
Portfolio Variance
• Compute the portfolio return for each state:
RP = w1R1 + w2R2 + … + wmRm
• Compute the expected portfolio return
using the same formula as for an individual
asset
• Compute the portfolio variance and
standard deviation using the same
formulas as for an individual asset
13-12
Example: Portfolio Variance
• Consider the following information
•
•
•
•
Invest 50% of your money in Asset A
Portfolio
State Probability A
B
12.5%
Boom .4
30%
-5%
Bust .6
-10%
25% 7.5%
• What are the expected return and standard
deviation for each asset?
• What are the expected return and standard
deviation for the portfolio?
13-13
Another Example
• Consider the following information
•
•
•
•
State
Boom
Normal
Recession
Probability
.25
.60
.15
X
15%
10%
5%
Z
10%
9%
10%
• What are the expected return and standard
deviation for a portfolio with an investment
of $6000 in asset X and $4000 in asset Z?
13-14
Expected versus Unexpected
Returns
• Realized returns are generally not equal to
expected returns
• There is the expected component and the
unexpected component
• At any point in time, the unexpected return can
be either positive or negative
• Over time, the average of the unexpected
component is zero
13-15
Announcements and News
• Announcements and news contain both an
expected component and a surprise
component
• It is the surprise component that affects a
stock’s price and therefore its return
• This is very obvious when we watch how
stock prices move when an unexpected
announcement is made or earnings are
different than anticipated
13-16
Efficient Markets
• Efficient markets are a result of investors
trading on the unexpected portion of
announcements
• The easier it is to trade on surprises, the
more efficient markets should be
• Efficient markets involve random price
changes because we cannot predict
surprises
13-17
Systematic Risk
• Risk factors that affect a large number of
assets
• Also known as non-diversifiable risk or
market risk
• Includes such things as changes in GDP,
inflation, interest rates, etc.
13-18
Unsystematic Risk
• Risk factors that affect a limited number of
assets
• Also known as unique risk and assetspecific risk
• Includes such things as labor strikes, part
shortages, etc.
13-19
Returns
• Total Return = expected return +
unexpected return
• Unexpected return = systematic portion +
unsystematic portion
• Therefore, total return can be expressed as
follows:
• Total Return = expected return +
systematic portion + unsystematic portion
13-20
Diversification
• Portfolio diversification is the investment in
several different asset classes or sectors
• Diversification is not just holding a lot of
assets
• For example, if you own 50 internet stocks,
you are not diversified
• However, if you own 50 stocks that span
20 different industries, then you are
diversified
13-21
Table 13.7
13-22
Portfolio Risk
• Risk is reduced by diversification and increased
by correlation
• The Coefficient of Correlation
• Shows extent of correlation among projects
• Has a numerical value of between -1 and +1
• Value shows the risk reduction between projects:
• Negative correlation (-1)  Large risk reduction
• No correlation (0)
 Some risk reduction
• Positive correlation (+1)  No risk reduction
13-23
Rates of return for Conglomerate,
Inc. and two merger candidates
(1)
(2)
(3)
(1) + (2)
Conglomerate,
Inc.
Negative
+
Correlation,
Positive
Inc.
Correlation,
–.9
Inc.
10%
15%
16
11
18
9
14
13
12
17
14%
13%
(1) + (3)
Conglomerate,
Inc.
+
Negative
Correlation,
Inc.
12%
13
13
13
14
13%
Positive
Correlation,
Conglomerate,
Inc.
Year
Inc.
+1.0
1. . . . . .
14%
16%
2. . . . . .
10
12
3. . . . . .
8
10
4. . . . . .
12
14
5. . . . . .
16
18
Mean return
12%
14%
Standard deviation
of returns ()*
2.82%
2.82%
2.82%
2.82%
.63%
Correlation coefficients
with Conglomerate, Inc.
+1.0
–.9
*Technically, the calculation of the standard deviation is based upon whether we are dealing with
a population or a sample. For a sample, an adjustment is made to get an unbiased estimate.
13-24
Portfolio Risk
•
•
•
•
•
•
Possibility
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Asset 1
11%
9%
25%
7%
- 2%
Asset 2
- 3%
15%
2%
20%
6%
13-25
Portfolio Risk with Different
Assets
 2p 2  E ( R pj  R p ) 2
 E[( X 1 R1 j  X 2 R2 j )  ( X 1 R1  X 2 R2 )]2
 E[ X 1 ( R1 j  R1 )  X 2 ( R2 j  R2 )]2
 E[ X 12 ( R1 j  R1 ) 2  X 22 ( R2 j  R2 ) 2  2 X 1 X 2 ( R1 j  R1 )( R2 j  R2 )]
 X 12 12  X 22 22  2 X 1 X 2 E[( R1 j  R1 )( R2 j  R2 )]
 X 12 12  X 22 22  2 X 1 X 2 12
 2p 3  X 12 12  X 22 22  X 32 32  2 X 1 X 2 12  2 X 1 X 3 13  2 X 2 X 3 23
3
3
X  
i 1

2
i
2
i
X
i 1 j 1 j  i
N
2
pn
3
N
X  
i 1
2
i
2
i
i
X j ij
N
X
i 1 j 1 j  i
N
i
N
X j ij   X   
i 1
2
i
2
i
N
X
i 1 j 1 j  i
i
X j i j  ij
13-26
Portfolio Risk
 12  0.2(0.11  0.10) 2  0.2(0.09  0.10) 2  0.2(0.25  0.10) 2
 0.2(0.07  0.10) 2  0.2(0.02  0.10) 2  0.0076
 22  0.2(0.03  0.08) 2  0.02(0.15  0.08) 2  0.02(0.02  0.08) 2
 0.2(0.20  0.08) 2  0.02(0.06  0.08) 2  0.00708
 12  E[( R1 j  R)( R2 j  R)]
 0.2(0.11  0.10)( 0.03  0.08)  0.02(0.09  0.10)(0.15  0.08)
 0.02(0.25  0.10)(0.02  0.08)  0.2(0.07  0.10)(0.20  0.08)
 0.2(0.02  0.10)(0.06  0.08)
 0.00022  0.00024  0.0018  0.00072  0.00048
 0.0024
13-27
Portfolio Risk
•
Asset 1
Asset 2
•
•
•
•
•
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
E(Rp)
10%
9.5%
9%
8.5%
8%
(Rp)
8.72%
6.18%
4.97%
5.96%
8.41%
13-28
Risk-return trade-offs
Return (percent)
G
F
C
Risk level (beta or coefficient of variation)
13-29
The Efficient Frontier
• Firm chooses combinations of projects with the
best trade-off between risk and return
• 2 objectives of management:
• Achieve the highest possible return at a given risk
level
• Provide the lowest possible risk at a given return level
• The Efficient Frontier is the best risk-return line
or combination of possibilities
• Firm must decide where to be on the line (there
is no “right” answer)
13-30
The Principle of Diversification
• Diversification can substantially reduce the
variability of returns without an equivalent
reduction in expected returns
• This reduction in risk arises because worse
than expected returns from one asset are
offset by better than expected returns from
another
• However, there is a minimum level of risk
that cannot be diversified away and that is
the systematic portion
13-31
Figure 13.1
13-32
Diversifiable Risk
• The risk that can be eliminated by
combining assets into a portfolio
• Often considered the same as
unsystematic, unique or asset-specific risk
• If we hold only one asset, or assets in the
same industry, then we are exposing
ourselves to risk that we could diversify
away
13-33
Total Risk
• Total risk = systematic risk + unsystematic
risk
• The standard deviation of returns is a
measure of total risk
• For well-diversified portfolios, unsystematic
risk is very small
• Consequently, the total risk for a diversified
portfolio is essentially equivalent to the
systematic risk
13-34
Systematic Risk Principle
• There is a reward for bearing risk
• There is not a reward for bearing risk
unnecessarily
• The expected return on a risky asset
depends only on that asset’s systematic
risk since unsystematic risk can be
diversified away
13-35
Table 13.8
13-36
Measuring Systematic Risk
• How do we measure systematic risk?
• We use the beta coefficient to measure
systematic risk
• What does beta tell us?
• A beta of 1 implies the asset has the same
systematic risk as the overall market
• A beta < 1 implies the asset has less
systematic risk than the overall market
• A beta > 1 implies the asset has more
systematic risk than the overall market
13-37
Total versus Systematic Risk
• Consider the following information:
• Security C
• Security K
Standard Deviation
20%
30%
Beta
1.25
0.95
• Which security has more total risk?
• Which security has more systematic risk?
• Which security should have the higher
expected return?
13-38
Work the Web Example
• Many sites provide betas for companies
• Yahoo Finance provides beta, plus a lot of
other information under its key statistics
link
• Click on the web surfer to go to Yahoo
Finance
• Enter a ticker symbol and get a basic quote
• Click on key statistics
13-39
Example: Portfolio Betas
• Consider the previous example with the following
four securities
•
•
•
•
•
Security
DCLK
KO
INTC
KEI
Weight
.133
.2
.167
.4
Beta
2.685
0.195
2.161
2.434
• What is the portfolio beta?
• .133(2.685) + .2(.195) + .167(2.161) + .4(2.434)
= 1.731
13-40
Beta and the Risk Premium
• Remember that the risk premium =
expected return – risk-free rate
• The higher the beta, the greater the risk
premium should be
• Can we define the relationship between
the risk premium and beta so that we can
estimate the expected return?
• YES!
13-41
Example: Portfolio Expected
Returns and Betas
30%
Expected Return
25%
E(RA)
20%
15%
10%
Rf
5%
0%
0
0.5
1
1.5A
2
2.5
3
Beta
13-42
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Definition
and Example
• The reward-to-risk ratio is the slope of the
line illustrated in the previous example
• Slope = (E(RA) – Rf) / (A – 0)
• Reward-to-risk ratio for previous example =
(20 – 8) / (1.6 – 0) = 7.5
• What if an asset has a reward-to-risk ratio
of 8 (implying that the asset plots above
the line)?
• What if an asset has a reward-to-risk ratio
of 7 (implying that the asset plots below
the line)?
13-43
Market Equilibrium
• In equilibrium, all assets and portfolios
must have the same reward-to-risk ratio
and they all must equal the reward-to-risk
ratio for the market
E ( RA )  R f
A

E ( RM  R f )
M
13-44
Security Market Line
• The security market line (SML) is the
representation of market equilibrium
• The slope of the SML is the reward-to-risk
ratio: (E(RM) – Rf) / M
• But since the beta for the market is
ALWAYS equal to one, the slope can be
rewritten
• Slope = E(RM) – Rf = market risk premium
13-45
The Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM)
• The capital asset pricing model defines the
relationship between risk and return
• E(RA) = Rf + A(E(RM) – Rf)
• If we know an asset’s systematic risk, we
can use the CAPM to determine its
expected return
• This is true whether we are talking about
financial assets or physical assets
13-46
Factors Affecting Expected
Return
• Pure time value of money – measured by
the risk-free rate
• Reward for bearing systematic risk –
measured by the market risk premium
• Amount of systematic risk – measured by
beta
13-47
Example - CAPM
• Consider the betas for each of the assets given
earlier. If the risk-free rate is 2.13% and the
market risk premium is 8.6%, what is the
expected return for each?
Security
DCLK
KO
INTC
KEI
Beta
2.685
0.195
2.161
2.434
Expected Return
2.13 + 2.685(8.6) = 25.22%
2.13 + 0.195(8.6) = 3.81%
2.13 + 2.161(8.6) = 20.71%
2.13 + 2.434(8.6) = 23.06%
13-48
Figure 13.4
13-49
Quick Quiz
• How do you compute the expected return and
standard deviation for an individual asset? For a
portfolio?
• What is the difference between systematic and
unsystematic risk?
• What type of risk is relevant for determining the
expected return?
• Consider an asset with a beta of 1.2, a risk-free
rate of 5% and a market return of 13%.
• What is the reward-to-risk ratio in equilibrium?
• What is the expected return on the asset?
13-50
Chapter 13
•End of Chapter
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.