Transcript EMIS7300_Project_Ideas

Got Gas?
EMIS 7300, SYSTEMS ANALYSIS METHODS
FALL 2005 Project Idea
Course Project – Got Gas?
• Scope – Determine the probability that the savings from a
thermally efficient attic will pay for itself within 5 years.
• Motivation – Natural gas costs are escalating.
– Potential revenue source.
– Conserve precious natural resources.
– Save money and enhance home’s resale value.
• Goal – To make energy efficiency attractive to consumer.
• Description – Analyze sample data to make predictions with
some degree of confidence. Offer a decision tool base upon
tangible value to consumer. Score a win-win for the consumer
and the environment.
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Course Project – Got Gas?
• Product – A decision tool that determines the payback
timeline for the consumer.
• Benefits – Get to combine passion for conservation with
passion for saving money.
• Other – No relation to my job, although have considered as a
side business.
• Schedule –
– Milestones – Complete project plan, data collected and
analyzed, conclusions drawn, results presented.
– Tasks – Write plan, collect data, charting, determine
distribution, develop hypothesis, test hypothesis, draw
conclusions, write report and presentation.
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Project Idea
F35 Schedule Change Requests
Cycle Time
SCRs and Job Relationship
• Used at Lockheed Martin on the F35 Program by the Program
Planning and Scheduling Department (PP&S)
• SCRs are used on a daily basis by Schedule Integrators
• Every time a schedule requires a update to baseline dates,
WBS/CA/WP and/or is adding tasks, deleting tasks an SCR is
required
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Scope of Project
•
Scope:
– How long does it take an SCR to go through it’s lifecycle
– How long does it take an SCR to get from one step in the cycle to another step in the
cycle
•
SCR cycle:
–
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–
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Creation Date
Internal Coordination of Detail Change Data is Complete and Accurate on Form
Internal Signatures
External Signatures
PPS Lead Signatures
SCR Implemented into Database
SCR Implemented into MPP
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Approach
•
Determine the amount of time it takes to get from one step in the cycle to another
step in the cycle through an SCR Log
•
Plot
•
– Time of intervals vs. SCRs
– Each stage of the cycle
– Track by WBS
– Eliminate outliers
– Study Trends
Calculate population mean, variance, standard deviation and range
•
Create an ANOVA table, Confidence Intervals and regression analysis for data
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Benefit to Program
• Provides an idea of the amount of time is being spent on
SCRs
• Allows management to investigate if there is a faster more
productive method to help the process
• Tracking by WBS can provide in-site on plans that may not be
up to date and plans that may need more concentration
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Reliability of the JHMCS LRUs
Reliability of the JHMCS LRUs
• Product – The product to be delivered would be the number of
spares the government would need to buy to keep all of the
JHMCS equiped squadrons running despite unit failures for
each LRU in the system.
• The benefit would be to the government who seems to have a
clear problem knowing how many units to buy and stock.
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Reliability of the JHMCS LRUs
• The planned effort would require the acquisition of the MTBF
(mean time between failures) of each of the LRUs and the
classification of the failure (sometimes units “fail” but are
found out later to not actually have been defective).
• There are multiple units in the JHMCS system so each one
would need to be analyized.
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Reliability in the JHMCS LRUs
• The scope of this project would only to find out how many
spares of each unit the government would need to keep in
stock, not to improve the suppliers process since they probably
wouldnt listen anyway.
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Flight Control Redundancy
Flight Control Redundancy
• In aircraft flight control systems, redundancy is relied upon to
prevent the catastrophic event of losing an aircraft. Given the
total number of catastrophic points of failure and the mean
time between failures in a channel, determine the optimal
number of redundant flight control channels required to
prevent the loss of an aircraft.
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Flight Control Redundancy
• In order to save aircraft weight, the total number shall not
exceed 4.
• The cost of each additional channel should be considered in
the final decision of how many channels are necessary.
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Flight Control Redundancy
• Determine the probability of a catastrophic failure occurring on a single
channel during a 2 hour mission.
• Determine the probability of a 2nd catastrophic failure occurring on a 2nd
channel during the same 2 hour mission.
• Determine the probability of a 3rd catastrophic failure occurring on a 3rd
channel during the same 2 hour mission.
• Determine the probability of a 4th catastrophic failure occurring on a 4th
channel during the same 2 hour mission.
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Flight Control Redundancy
• Compare the results and determine the number of channels
necessary to achieve the optimal performance without
sacrificing cost and weight.
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Advanced Braking System
Advanced Braking System
Scope – Advanced Technology Consulting is hired by BMW to perform an analysis
of whether it should implement an upgrade to their advanced braking system that
will prevent collisions over 45 mph. BMW has an advanced braking system which
will be available in some of the 2008 models that prevents vehicles from getting
into collisions by decreasing the speed of the vehicle when it senses other vehicles
around it for collisions less than 45 mph. BMW wants Advanced Technology
Consulting to determine if they need to implement such a device for higher speed
collisions.
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Advanced Braking System
Goal – To determine if this new technology should be implemented within
the next several years or if it can wait. Currently, BMW has other
technological advances they are researching but have only some portion of
budget to develop these technologies. BMW wants Advanced Technology
Consulting to research how many collisions that occur each year that are
greater than 45 mph. If most collisions are less than 45 mph than the
upgrade to the advanced braking system will wait.
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Advanced Braking System
Description – Advanced Technology Consulting will need to
get data on automobile crashes that occurred in the last seven
years. Statistical analysis will be on studied on how many
collisions occur each year that are less than 45 mph and how
many collisions occur each year that are over 45 mph.
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Motivation for Changing Jobs
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Project Idea
Title: Motivation For Changing Jobs (Within a
Company)
Idea: I have noticed a significant turnover in positions
where I work. It is interesting to observe coworkers and
the differences in motivation for changing job positions
and their reasons for doing so. Getting an idea of what
groups of employees move the most and their reasons
could aid in development of programs to keep
employees motivated, challenged, and satisfied with
their jobs. Such programs could be used to find an
employee’s strengths and skills by frequent rotation until
a suitable job is found.
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Project Idea – cont. 1
Plan: Determine if experience level (time spent working
for company) is independent of reasons for changing
positions. Reasons for changing positions could be for
increase in income, job satisfaction (not happy or needs
a change), climbing the management latter, learning
company operations on broad scale, etc.
A sample group of 50 or more people could be surveyed
on their reason for wanting to move. Contingency tables
could be used for the initial survey or data capture and
used to find or hypothesize expected future frequncies.
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Project Idea – cont. 2
Test the hypothesis that work experience relates to
reasons for changing jobs. If they are not independent,
use the data to formulate career development and
satisfaction programs.
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Safety Hazard Analysis
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS METHODS
FALL 2005
Project Idea Submittal
Course Project Idea – Safety Hazard Analysis
DISCLAIMER: I do not, nor ever have, worked in a System Safety
group. Therefore, some terminology I use in this presentation may
not sound 100% technically correct to people who work in system
safety.
SCOPE – On my program I work with people that work in our system
safety group. Among their tasks, they must classify every hazard
identified on the aircraft. For example, they may have to determine
the probability that a particular fuel line will leak. They then must
determine what the probability will be that the leak could cause fire
or explosion. These probabilities combined with other factors
including environment, usage profile, etc. produce an overall safety
hazard analysis. This hazard is then color-coded and probability of
occurrence is shown.
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Course Project Idea – Safety Hazard Analysis
Motivation – Although I’m sure statistics is used widely throughout the
program; this is one area on my program that I have at least some
limited statistics exposure.
I would like to obtain exposure to a “real” use of statistics in my
work environment. This additional exposure may help me better
understand aspects of my work, my class or both.
GOAL – My goal is to learn how apply statistics to my work.
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Course Project Idea – Safety Hazard Analysis
APPROACH DESCRIPTION:
My strategy would be to research safety hazard analysis to learn how
to perform the analysis in generic terms.
I would then create an analysis for a certain area of a product, i.e. car
or plane by using realistic data.
Objectives would be to identify all hazards and then determine the
probability of occurrence for each. I would then roll that information
into an overall system safety rating.
The real world application will then likely dictate that some kind of cost
analysis is performed to weigh aspects of safety hazard analysis vs.
cost of unit vs. liabilities if the hazard actually occurs.
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Course Project Idea – Safety Hazard Analysis
• PRODUCT – Safety Hazard Analysis
• BENEFITS – I would like to obtain exposure to a “real” use of
statistics in my work environment. This additional exposure may
help me better understand aspects of my work, my class or both.
• OTHER – Safety hazard analysis data has been used in my job in
the past to help prove we meet certain safety requirements. I may
able to learn enough to help provide insight in the how the statistical
safety analysis is derived
• SCHEDULE – My expectation is that me and my team would not
spend more than 4-6 hours per week each week until the project is
presented.
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OverTime Hours
and Nonconformance Documents
Overtime Hours vs New Nonconformance Documents
Are employees creating more or
documents during overtime weeks.
less
nonconformance
Is there a correlation between overtime and the amount of
mistakes made.
Is
there a correlation between the creation
nonconformance documents and overtime hours.
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Overtime and Nonconformance resolution
• Are more nonconformance documents closed during high
overtime weeks.
• Is there a correlation between closure of nonconformance
documents and overtime hours.
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Implementation
• The implementation of this project will require mainframe
programming in SAS and JCL to get the financial data
regarding overtime by department.
• SQl and PL/SQL will be required to get the nonconformance
data from QADS.
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Resources and Risks
• The only resources needed are man-hours and access to the
databases containing the information.
• There is a risk that the company will not allow us to use
reveal the data, or that it will reduce the kind of data that is
released as it relates to overtime hours.
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Project Title:
Probability of a Newly Hired Employee settling in at LMCO
Introduction…
• What is the probability that a newly hired employee of LMCO will remain
with the company for at least 3 years?
• As most of the companies face various difficulties to keep their employees,
what additional reinforcements can LMCO provide for its employees to
encourage them to remain in LMCO longer?
•
Taking into account the benefits provided by LMCO, what is the
probability that the employee will remain in LMCO for at least 3 years?
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Employee Perspective…
• The need to belong in a reputed company
• Work stability
• Insurance and other benefits
• Salary range
• Location of the company
• Flexible work hours
• Etc…
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Company Perspective
• Age
• GPA
• Personality of the individual
• Goals of the individual
• A pleasant work-environment
• Competitive Salary
• Etc…
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Give what is not needed or keep what
will not help
A STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT ON THE FINANCIAL
STABILITY OF BRAND NEW
CHURCHES OPENING IN BURLESON TEXAS
SCOPE
• COLLECT DATA ON BURLESON POPULATION WITH REGARDS
TO FINANCIAL GIVING TO THE CHURCH
• RELATE THE SAMPLE DATA TO THE CITY POPULATION
• ANALYZE THE DATA TO STATISTICALLY DETERMINE
FINANCIAL VIABILITY OF NEW CHURCH IN BURLESON BASED
ON:
– BURLESON RESIDENT GIVING PROFILE
– NUMBER OF MEMBERS ATTENDING
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DATA COLLECTION
•
COLLECTED RANDOM SAMPLE OF BURLESON RESIDENTS
•
– PROPOSE GAS STATION AS DATA COLLECTION SITE (PEOPLE AT
ALL SOCIO-ECONOMIC LEVELS MUST BUY GAS – WILL HELP TO
KEEP SELECTION RANDOM)
QUESTIONS (DATA) TO BE COLLECTED
•
– ATTEND CHURCH
• REGULARLY IS AT LEAST EVERY OTHER SUNDAY
• NON REGULAR IS ANTHING LESS THAN ABOVE
– FINANCIAL GIVING
• $$ AMOUNT
• HOUSEHOLD INCOME (OPTIONAL)
GOAL IS TO COLLECT 40 TO 50 DATA POINTS
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ANALYSIS
• DETERMINE
– SAMPLE MEAN, VARIANCE, STD. DEVIATION
• RELATE TO CITY POPULATION
– MEAN, VARIANCE STD DEVIATION
– CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
• ANALYZE NEW CHURCH
– BASED ON INITIAL SMALL GROUP OR “SEED”
CONGREGATION OF MATURE MEMBERS
– BASED ON ALL NEW, YOUNG MEMBERS
– BASED ON 20/80 MIX (MATURE / YOUNG) MEMBERS
• COMPARE TO ACTUAL CHURCH CURRENTLY ATTENDING (IF
POSSIBLE)
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ISSUES AND RISKS
•
PEOPLE MAY NOT PROVIDE ANY DATA
•
– TWO VERY SENSITIVE ISSUES MONEY AND RELIGION
– VERY HIGH RISK TO ASK FOR “PERSONAL INCOME” (THAT’S WHY THIS IS
OPTIONAL)
DATA COLLECTED MAY BE SKEWED
•
– PEOPLE WHO GIVE LITTLE WANT YOU TO THINK THEY GIVE MORE THAN
THEY DO
– PEOPLE WHO GIVE MUCH ARE USUALLY HUMBLE AND MAY PROVIDE A
VALUE LOWER THAN REALITY.
WILL NEED PERMISSION FROM GAS STATION ATTENDANT – MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO CONDUCT SURVEY.
– OTHER LOCATIONS MAY INCREASE THE SAMPLE BIAS OF THE DATA TO
SOME CLASS, GENDER, SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUP OF PEOPLE.
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Dirty
MULTIPLEX BUS
Words
A presentation which describes the F-16 specifications for how clean
digital data transmissions between avionic subsystems need to be.
Dirty
MULTIPLEX BUS
Words
Introduction: When digital data is transmitted along the F-16
multiplex bus, information may get contaminated. For
example, 1’s may be interpreted as 0’s and vice-versa. For the
purposes of this project, we’ll call contaminated multiplex bus
words “Dirty Words.”
Determine what the various
requirements are, and use different statistical methods to
describe the tolerances of the specification.
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Dirty
MULTIPLEX BUS
Words
• Step 1: Determine what the requirements are. May reference
16PP967, MIL-STD-1553B, or other documents (be sure they
are unclassified and not proprietary). When is data discarded?
• Step 2: Give an example of a sample data transmission that is
dirty, one that is clean, and one that is right on the edge of the
requirements.
• Step 3: Use different statistics learned during this semester to
describe the requirements based on the examples from Step 2.
Describe the calculations/results and their meaning. For
example, how could you apply concepts such as probabilities,
distributions, confidence intervals, independence, multiple
discrete random variables, type I/II errors for explaining the
requirements?
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Dirty
MULTIPLEX BUS
Words
• Summary: This project will help increase expertise by
researching F-16 requirements while getting more practice
with various statistical methods.
The product will be
informative
and
the
project
tasks
should
be
definable/quantifiable. Deviations to the plan are possible, but
the basic idea is to relate different statistics to real
requirements.
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