#### Transcript Probabilistic Reasoning over Time Russell and Norvig: ch 15

```Probabilistic Reasoning
over Time
Russell and Norvig: ch 15
Temporal Probabilistic
Agent
sensors
?
environment
agent
actuators
t1, t2, t3, …
Time and Uncertainty
The world changes, we need to track and predict it
Examples: diabetes management, traffic monitoring
Basic idea: copy state and evidence variables for
each time step
Xt – set of unobservable state variables at time t

e.g., BloodSugart, StomachContentst
Et – set of evidence variables at time t

e.g., MeasuredBloodSugart, PulseRatet, FoodEatent
Assumes discrete time steps
States and Observations
Process of change is viewed as series of snapshots,
each describing the state of the world at a
particular time
Each time slice involves a set or random variables
indexed by t:
1.
2.


the set of unobservable state variables Xt
the set of observable evidence variable Et
The observation at time t is Et = et for some set of
values et
The notation Xa:b denotes the set of variables from
Xa to Xb
Stationary Process/Markov Assumption
Markov Assumption: Xt depends on some previous Xis
First-order Markov process:
P(Xt|X0:t-1) = P(Xt|Xt-1)
kth order: depends on previous k time steps
Sensor Markov assumption:
P(Et|X0:t, E0:t-1) = P(Et|Xt)
Assume stationary process: transition model P(Xt|Xt-1)
and sensor model P(Et|Xt) are the same for all t
In a stationary process, the changes in the world
state are governed by laws that do not themselves
change over time
Which mode is right is determined by domain.
Eg.
If a particle is executing a random walk along the
x-axis, changing its position by +/-1 at each time step,
then using the x-coordinate as the state gives a firstorder Markov process.
Complete Joint Distribution
Given:



Transition model: P(Xt|Xt-1)
Sensor model: P(Et|Xt)
Prior probability: P(X0)
Then we can specify complete joint
distribution:
t
P( X 0 , X1 ,..., X t , E1 ,..., E t )  P( X 0 ) P( X i | X i 1 ) P( E i | X i )
i 1
Example
Raint-1
Umbrellat-1
Rt-1
P(Rt|Rt-1)
T
F
0.7
0.3
Raint
Raint+1
Umbrellat
Umbrellat+1
Rt
P(Ut|Rt)
T
F
0.9
0.2
Assumption modification
first-order Markov process is used in previous
example
There are two possible fixes if the
approximation proves too inaccurate:
1. Increasing the order of the Markov process
model.

Use second-order model by adding Raint-2 as a parent
of Rain, which might give slightly more accurate
predictions (for example, in Palo ,Alto it very rarely
rains more than two days in a row).
2. Increasing the set of state variables.

For example, we could add Season{ to allow us to
incorporate historical records of rainy seasons, or we
could add Temperaturet, Humidityt and Pressuret to
allow us to use a physical model of rainy conditions.
Note
the system's predictive power but also
increases the prediction requirements

we now have to predict the new variables
as well.
 add new sensors (Eg. measurements of
temperature and pressure
Example: robot wandering
Problem: tracking a robot wandering
randomly on the X-Y plane
state variables: position and velocity


the new position can be calculated by
Newton's laws
the velocity may change unpredictably
 Eg. battery-powered robot’s velocity may be
effected by a battery exhaustion
Example: robot wandering
Battery exhaustion depends on how
much power was used by all previous
maneuvers, the Markov property is
violated.
Add charge level Batteryt as state
variable


new model to predict Batteryt from Batteryt-1
and the velocity
New sensors for charge level
Filtering or monitoring: P(Xt|e1,…,et)
computing current belief state, given all evidence to date
Prediction: P(Xt+k|e1,…,et)
computing prob. of some future state
Smoothing: P(Xk|e1,…,et)
computing prob. of past state (hindsight)(0≤k ≤t)
Most likely explanation:
arg maxx1,..xtP(x1,…,xt|e1,…,et)
given sequence of observation, find sequence of states that is
most likely to have generated those observations.
Examples
Filtering: What is the probability that it is raining
today, given all the umbrella observations up through
today?
Prediction: What is the probability that it will rain
the day after tomorrow, given all the umbrella
observations up through today?
Smoothing: What is the probability that it rained
yesterday, given all the umbrella observations
through today?
Most likely explanation: if the umbrella appeared
the first three days but not on the fourth, what is the
most likely weather sequence to produce these
umbrella sightings?
Filtering & Prediction
We use recursive estimation to compute P(Xt+1 |
e1:t+1) as a function of et+1 and P(Xt | e1:t)
We can write this as follows:
P( X t 1 | e1:t 1 )  P( X t 1 | e1:t , et 1 )(dividing up the evidence)
 P (et 1 | X t 1 , e1:t ) P ( X t 1 | e1:t )(using Bayes' rule)
 P (et 1 | X t 1 ) P ( X t 1 | e1:t )(by the Markov property of evidence).
 P (et 1 | X t 1 ) P ( X t 1 | xt ) P ( xt | e1:t )(using the Markov property)
xt

P(et+l lXt+1) is obtainable directly from the sensor model
This leads to a recursive definition

f1:t+1 = FORWARD(f1:t:t,et+1)
Example: rain & umbrella p. 543
Model,P(R0) =<0.5,0.5>
Smoothing
Compute P(Xk|e1:t) for 0<= k < t
Using a backward message bk+1:t = P(Ek+1:t | Xk), we obtain

P(Xk|e1:t) = f1:kbk+1:t
The backward message can be computed using
bk 1:t  P(ek 1 | xk 1 )P(ek  2:t | xk 1 )P(xk 1 | Xk )
xk 1
(15.7)
This leads to a recursive definition

Bk+1:t = BACKWARD(bk+2:t,ek+1:t)
bk 1:t  P(ek 1 | xk 1 )P(ek  2:t | xk 1 )P(xk 1 | Xk )
Example from R&N: p. 545
xk 1
computing the smoothed estimate for the
probability of rain at t = 1, given the umbrella
observations on days 1 and 2.
According to E.15.7
Pluged into E.15.8
Probabilistic Temporal Models
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs)
Kalman Filters
Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs)
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs)
Further simplification:
Only one state variable.
We can use matrices, now.
Ti,j = P(Xt=j|Xt-1=i)


Tij is the probability of a transition from
state i to state j.
transition matrix for the umbrella world:
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs)
sensor model:diagonal matrix Ot


diagonal entries are given by the values
P(et lXt = i)
Other entried:0
 Umbrella world
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs)
Example: speech recognition
```