Transcript Risk Analysis (PPT

Chemistry for Consumers
Risk Analysis
Paper cup or plastic
cup…which is better for the
environment?
A. Paper
B. Plastic
www.ilea.org
From Dow…
Risk Analysis and Management
(Morgan, Sci Am July 1993)
“When people are asked to order
well-known hazards in terms of the
number of deaths and injuries they
cause every year, on average they
do it pretty well. If, however, they
asked to rank those hazards in
terms of risk, they produce quite a
different order.”
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People rank risks on:
1. How well the process in question is
understood
2. How equitably the danger is
distributed
3. How well the individuals can
control their exposure (voluntary?)
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These factors can be grouped for
risk analysis into categories:
1. Degree of dreadfulness (e.g.,
affects innocent bystanders?)
2. How well is the risk understood
3. Number of people exposed
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Categories can be used to define a
“risk space” which pictorially
shows how people will react to a
particular hazard. Risks that carry a
high level of “dread” provoke more
calls for government intervention
than some more workaday risks
that actually cause more deaths or
injuries.
Leading Causes of Death - Canada,
1997
Res piratory (20 ,036)
9%
Other (35 ,219)
16 %
Diabetes (5,69 9)
3%
Infectious Diseas es
(2,434)
1%
Cancer (5 9,77 5)
29 %
Other IHD (21,564)
10 %
AMI (2 1,95 7)
10 %
Cerebrovas cular
Diseas e (16,0 48)
7%
All
Cardiovascula
r Disease
(79,457)
36%
Other CVD (19,8 88)
9%
Accidents /
Poisoning/ Violence
(13 ,049)
6%
Total Number of Deaths: 215,669
Cardiovascular (ICD-9 390-459); Respiratory (ICD-9 460-519); Diabetes (ICD-9 250); Cancer (ICD-9 140-239); Infectious Diseases (ICD9 001-139); Accidents/Poisonings/Violence (ICD-9 E800-E999)
Source: Statistics Canada, 1997
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Risks and Benefits (Hill & Kolb)
Benefits – promote well-being or have
a positive effect
Risks – hazards that lead to loss or
injury
Benefits
Desirability Quotient =
= DQ
Risks
Individual Risk
(probability x risk)
Societal Risk
(probability x risk x
population)
Possible Cases…
• Very Large DQ (large benefit/small risk)
• Very Small DQ (small benefit/large risk)
• ????? DQ (small/small or large/large)
Examples
•
•
•
•
•
Consumption of milk
Thalidomide
Liquidification of coal
Aspartame
Others?
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Something practical…