#### Transcript what they don` teach you – final Calumet

What they don’t teach you at Lean and Six Sigma School Bill Hooper Elkay Manufacturing President, William Hooper Consulting Inc. ASQ CSSMBB, CSSBB, CRE, CQE, CMQ So what do they teach you in LSS school Computer generated analysis and design A language only a few can understand Statistics! Statistics! Statistics! 4-6 months to get results 30 days for the rebound How many understand the following? Fractional Factorial Design Factors: 8 Runs: 67 Blocks: 1 Resolution: IV Replicates: 2 Fraction: 1/8 Center pts (total): 3 Design Generators: F = ABC, G = ABD, H = BCDE Dr. George Box’s analysis Typical LSS courses teach to What is typically needed What if we taught statistical based process improvement to the 95% that need it and don’t get it? The real Customer Un-geeking the teaching process Hypothesis theory Gauge R and R Probability theory Capability Analysis Design of Experiments Hypothesis Theory – Un-Geeking What is an Alpha error? Rejection of the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true. What is a Beta error? Failure to reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false. What the jury found guilty What really happened He did it He did not do it Not guilty Alpha vs. Beta Errors Power Beta Error Alpha Error Reduction in Variation Probability Theory – Multiplication principle P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B/A) Ugly! ….but what if this could be explained by card magic? Probability of a pair of kings P(K and K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) = .5 % or 5 out of a thousand … and on a control chart So what to do with the process? Nothing! Probability of drawing three kings P(K and K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two) = .02% or 2 out of a 10,000 … and on a control chart ….. And what should happen? What if that was process flowed? Person chosen at random Random deck Made four piles Split the cards in the middle Handed card out to audience Right or left hand (50/50). Audience turns over cards one at a time Shuffled the cards four ways. What if that was probability plotted by group exercise? 45 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 40 Likely candidates 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 shuffle the Random deck Right or left person chosen cut the cards handed out Audience created four cards 4 ways hand? at random in the middle cards to turns over piles audience cards one at a Members time Process Probability of drawing four kings P(K-K-K-K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two) x P(fourth given the first three) = .0000036 or 3.6 PPM … and on a control chart What is easier to learn P(K-K-K-K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two) x P(fourth given the first three) = .0000036 or 3.6 PPM or Design of Experiments What if we could all learn the basics of a 2 level – 3 factor DOE? What if interaction effect was understood by everyone? Reverse hand experiment (or the solution may not be obvious and it may hurt) A very simple but effective DOE Bowl wrinkle Bowl Break The basics of a 2 level – 3 factor DOE Breaks Bowl Wrinkle Deck Wrinkles Possible sweet spot Additional runs to define sweet spot …and it does work So one more time – the reverse hand experiment Probability theory/Capability Analysis Hypothesis/Probability Theory Probability Theory Hypothesis/Design of Experiments How to make it work – how to make it stick Finally Probability of you beating my 4 kings : .0000005 or .5 PPM Bill Hooper Principle Engineer, Elkay Manufacturing President, William Hooper Consulting Inc. Visit his website at www.williamhooperconsulting.org To learn more about innovative techniques to teach statistics and process improvement methodology.