Transcript the case of Italy (ppt File)

University quality, interregional brain drain and
spatial inequality: the case of Italy
Motivation and objectives
This research aimed at analyzing and understanding the determinants of the
interregional migration choices of Italian students-graduates.
Fig. 1 The brain drain of 2004 students-graduates born in South Italy (Southerns)
1st stage: Where to study?
2004 Southern
graduates
2nd stage: Where to work?
25% moved to
study to CN
Southerns who
graduated in CN
65% stayed in
CN
Modelling approach: two stage backward stepwise
data weighted using ISTAT carry-over coefficients).
probability model (individual
Clearly, as individual migration choice depends also on the socio-economic
differences between province of origin and of destination, a set of variables
accounting for that was included. Furthermore, I controlled for individual
characteristics, high-school and university performances, field of study, family
standard of living and background, and agglomeration economies.
Results on the role of University quality
The econometric estimation suggests, among others, the following results:
Southerns who
graduated in the S
67% stayed in the S
Background and main question
In general, the outflow of students-graduates is the outcome of two sequential
migration choices taken at two different moments: before enrolment (where to study?)
and after graduation (where to work?). Fig. 1 shows the outflow of students and
graduates from South Italy (for the sake of simplicity, that of Central Northern ones is
omitted). To have an idea of the phenomenon, it is enough to stress that three years
after graduation almost 41.5% of 2004 graduates born in Southern Italy works in
Central-North Italy (CN). This implies a significant loss of human capital in an area
that already shows significant socio-economic gaps with respect to the more
industrialized CN.
Given the increasing importance of universities as key driver of economic
development, and as attraction poles for talents, this research aims at evaluating to
what extent university quality influences these migration choices.
Might university quality be “used” as a policy instrument to tackle with the effects of
brain drain on human capital accumulation and regional growth?
Data and Methodology
The student information used comes from the last survey administered by the Italian
National Statistics Institute on Italian graduate labour market entry conditions (ISTAT,
2009). This survey was conducted in 2007 on a cohort of students who graduated in
2004 and included 47,342 individuals and represents 17.3% of the cohort of 2004
Italian graduates (260,070 individuals). Thanks to the carry-over coefficients, sample
results can be generalized. Students-graduates are considered ‘migrants’ if they
moved from one province of macro area i to a province in macro area j (i= 1, 2;
Southern provinces, Central-North provinces). Fig. 2 summarizes the sequential
choices considered in the analysis.
1st stage migration (before enrolment)
The higher the research quality of the universities in the region of origin of the student,
the lower the probability he/she will migrate to a province in the other macro area. At
the same time, the higher the research quality of the university in the destination
province, the higher the probability an individual will migrate.
2nd stage migration (after graduation)
- If the student did not move to study: the higher the quality of the university
attended, the lower the probability he/she will move after graduation (an higher
university quality acts as a signal for local employees);
- If the student moved to study: the higher the research quality of the university
attended the higher the probability he/she will not return to the province of origin (an
higher university quality acts as a signal for local employees);
Hence, the empirical evidence strongly supports the common belief that the most
important decision of Italian graduates to influence is that of WHERE to study (ceteris
paribus the most part of those who move at the first stage - and do it to study in a
better university -, remains there). In fact, the higher the quality of the university
supply, the lower the need to migrate to study, and to work. At the same time, better
universities attract students from “ outside”, hence they contribute to accumulate
human capital (and to labour productivity and growth; Becker, 1964; Lucas, 1988).
Policy Implications
Fig. 2 The sequential migration choices of Italian students-graduates:
2 relevant moments: before enrolment and after graduation
The analysis argues strongly for the promotion of policy initiatives to improve the
quality of academic institutions, and the accountability of research results.
1st relevant moment:
before enrolment
47,342
Students interviewed
2nd relevant moment:
after graduation
42,041
Studied in the same
Macro Area of origin
39,606
After grad. stay
in the Macro area
of origin
2,435
After grad. move
to the other
Macro area
5,301
Move to study in
the other
Macro area
2,502
Return to the
Macro region of origin
2,799
After grad.
remain “abroad”
This database was matched with university level data on research quality in the period
2001-2003 published by the Italian Ministry of Education and Research (MIUR, 2007),
with ISTAT data on value added and employment, and on quality of life at NUTS3
level (province).
Results would suggest that systemic interventions to sustain centres of excellence in
relatively less industrialized areas would be very beneficial. They would help to attract
talents from “ abroad”, and to avoid losing “domestic” human capital, and potential
growth.
Clearly, developing centres of excellence for scientific research is a necessary but
non sufficient condition to attract them as students and graduates migration choices
are also influenced by the socio and economic conditions offered by the “hosting”
province. Hence, framing the environment for innovation and high tech
entrepreneurship can make regions attractive to both home and foreign students and
young graduates.
Such policies embrace promotion of entrepreneurship, training and education,
mechanisms influencing the allocation of capital, public research and its links with
business. There is the need, in source regions which do not receive flows of human
capital (as in the case of Italian Southern regions), to develop an adequate
technological, scientific and business environment that will provide satisfying
opportunities for returning individuals who have upgraded their skills abroad and/or
serve to persuade the students to stay.