Transcript AP Statistics

AP STATISTICS
Section 6.1 Simulations
Objective: To be able to create and carry out a simulation.
Probability: the branch of mathematics that describes the
pattern of chance outcomes.
Models for Estimating Probability
1. Observe and calculate relative frequency.
2. Use a probability model and calculate the theoretical
answer.
3. Start with a model and then simulate many repetitions
of the procedure.
Simulation is the imitation of chance behavior based on a model
that accurately reflects the phenomenon under consideration.
Steps:
1. State or describe the problem.
2. State the assumptions.
3. Assign digits to outcomes and describe the procedure. ***
4. Simulate many repetitions.
5. Calculate the relative frequency and state the conclusions.
Trial: one repetition of the simulation.
Trials are independent if the results of one trial do not influence
the results of the next trial.
Ex. 1 Simulate the chance that the Eagles make the
playoffs this season.
Ex. 2 Missile Defense Problem. An intercepting missile has
a 60% success rate. The government has decided to
launch 4 interceptors at each incoming missile. Simulate
the likelihood that the incoming missile hits its target. (all
interceptors miss)
Ex. 3 The Rumor Problem
Ex. 4 The Duck Hunt
Ex. 5 The Birthday Problem
Ex. 6 The Baseball Problem