Transcript Solar bursts and lunar seismicity

Solar bursts and lunar
seismicity
Khavroshkin O.B., Tsyplakov V.V.
IPhE RAS, [email protected]
Preface
• Display of activity of the Sun in lunar seismicity as
separate events long time usually are interpreted as
influence of solar-terrestrial tides which deformed the
Moon and causing rocks crackling and / or weak seismic
events [1]. With development of statistical methods of
the analysis of the data on lunar seismicity (Nakamura’s
Catalogue) and more open and wide approach to a
nature moonquakes in particular detection of a new role
and properties gas dust streams have appeared
certificates on active influence on the Moon of the Sun
and a solar wind [2]. Connection of the interplanetary
shock waves (ISW) formed by solar bursts and
influencing on a day time surface of the Moon in some
day after bursts (for example 2, 4, 7 August, 1972y.)
further was shown. Thus energy burst ISW on the
influence on the Moon is comparable to impacts of the
big meteorites and consequently is capable to derivate
seismic waves accessible to registration [3].
Histograms search
• The analysis of the wave response of lunar lithosphere
on the burst ISW acting has revealed complex time
structure of a seismic field, potential information content
of all process, necessity to continue research.
Histograms duration’s of records seismic events
(seismograms) on the Moon long before solar burst,
during burst and after bursts were originally constructed
for 1972y.(fig.1). Comparison duration of histograms with
the periods of own of the solar oscillations in a range of
the short periods has found out their numerous
concurrence and changes durations on quarters the
sinodic lunar period. Histograms of durations for all lunar
seismic events for 1972y. on quarters (duration
7.37days) – fig.1 (a, b, c, d), where: a – sunset, b - a
new Moon, c - rising, d - a full Moon after bursts 2, 4,8
August, 1972y. Thus the appreciable number of
durations coincided with the periods of own solar
oscillation.
• Let us look histograms duration of all lunar
seismic events on quarters of the sinodic
lunar period in a range from 1 up to 60
min. for time intervals: a - sunset, b- a new
Moon (time of during solar bursts), c-in
time rising, d - a time full Moon (after
burst).
Fig. 1a. Distribution of lunar seismogram
durations on sunset 2.08. 1972y.
Распределение длитедьностей сейсмических событий на Луне при
заходе 2.08 1972г
7
6
количество
5
4
Ряд1
3
2
1
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
минуты
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
Fig.1b. Distribution of lunar seismogram
durations on new Moon time 9. 08. 1972y.
•
Распределение длительностей лунотрясений во время новолуния в
9.08.1972г
8
7
количество
6
5
Ряд1
4
3
2
1
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
минуты
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
Fig.1c. Distribution of lunar seismogram
durations on rising time 17.08. 1972y.
Распределение длительности лунных сейсмических событий при
восходе 17.08.1972г
12
10
количество
8
Ряд1
6
4
2
0
1
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
минуты
Fig.1d. Distribution of lunar seismogram durations
on a full Moon time after bursts 2, 4,8 August,
1972y.
Распределение дительностей лунных событий во время полнолуния в
24.08.1972г
16
14
количество
12
10
Ряд1
8
6
4
2
0
1
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61
минуты
• Detection and detailed consideration of
concurrence seismogram durations (fig. 1)
and the periods of own oscillations of the
Sun [4], their dependence on the lunar
period have demanded realization of
quantitative estimations of the noticed
features for each histogram. For this
purpose the test histogram of own
oscillations of the Sun on the standard
theoretical data [4] was constructed.
• Thus the test histogram is created on the basis of three
models of own oscillations of the Sun in a range from 13
about 60 minutes (table 1). Construction of the test
diagram passed as follows. In a range of the theoretical
periods of oscillations of the Sun from 1 about 60
minutes histograms of quantity of the theoretical periods
on different models of the Sun were under construction.
The interval for the periods has made 1 minute, the
quantity of the theoretical periods on all models of the
Sun further was counted up. So the synthetic test
histogram was constructed. At an estimation of a degree
of correlation zero at numbers test and other histograms
were cut off. In result the file from 12min up to 57min (45
values, table 2) same, as well as in table 1 is received.
• %solar event:
• 77.6; 85.4; 89.4; 85.4; 90; 95.8;
• Common number event
• 85; 85; 41; 66; 82; 120;
134.
• In table 1: column: time series of seismogram durations
for solar oscillation range; 2 column: test histogram
created from solar oscillations [4]; 3 column: histogram
of the distribution of durations of all the lunar seismic
events (seismograms) in the range from 13 to 57
minutes in the quarter rising before burst; 4 column:
histogram of the duration distribution of all lunar seismic
events in the range of 13 to 57 minutes in a quarter full
moon, before the burst; 5 column: histogram of the
distribution of durations of all the lunar seismic events in
the range from 13 to 57 minutes in a quarter of sunset; 6
column: histogram of the duration distribution of all the
lunar seismic events in the range from 13 to 57 minutes
in a quarter-moon during burst; 7 column: histogram of
the distribution of durations of all the lunar seismic
events in the range from 13 to 57 minutes in the quarter
after the burst, 8 column: histogram of the distribution of
durations of all the lunar seismic events in the range of
13 to 57 minutes in a quarter full moon after the burst.
• Further factors of correlation (Table 2) between a test file
and files were received: rising up to, a full Moon before
burst, a new Moon during burst, rising, a full Moon after
Estimation of correlation between observant
and theoretical values of histograms.
•
•
•
•
Correlation coefficients
r=0.26;r=04;1r=0.28;r=0.17;r=0.49;r=0.59
Probably Non zero
0.9;0.995;0.95;0.999;0.9995
Continue
• In Table 2:The results of the correlation
coefficients between the test histogram,
column 2 (Table 1) and histograms:
sunrise to column 3; the full moon to the
burst column 4; column 5 nset; new moon
during burst time on the column 6; column
7- sunrise; full moon after the burstcolumn 8 (columns 3 - 8).
• For reception of the importance of the received factors of correlation
n2
(check of a zero hypothesis)
r
1 r
• Fisher`s t-criterion
• Where used: r - factor of correlation, n - quantity of degrees of
freedom (in our case n = 45, i.e. it is equal to quantity of
independent values at reception of factor of correlation).
• At a zero hypothesis selective distribution of this statistics t is
Student’s distribution with n-2 degrees of freedom. Accordingly for
each calculated factor of correlation under the table of percentage
points of Student’s t-distribution it is received quintiles for each
factor of correlation (the third line of table 2). That is, for factor of
correlation r = 0.59 with probability P > 0.9995 it is not equal to zero
or significant (the fourth line of table 2). The same for other factors of
correlation.
• On the basis of this result is determined by a similar correlation with
seismic data bars in the year of minimum solar activity in 1976.
(Table 3). However, the number of seismic events n is insignificant in
comparison with 1972. Correlation in the year of minimum solar
activity (1976).
2
Correlation in the year of minimum solar
activity (1976).
•
•
•
•
•
•
Correl. Coef.
r=0.325;r=0.27;r=0.126;r=0.04
Probability non zero
Р=0.75; Р=0.75 Number of event
11; 22; 18; 26
• In Table 3: similar (Table 2) correlations
with seismic histogram in the year of
minimum solar activity in 1976y.: 2 -5
columns correlation coefficients of the
lunar synodic Quarters period (2 line) and
estimate the probability (3 line).
• Accordingly, for 1976 the correlation coefficients
obtained insignificant in comparison with 1972, this is
probably due to both lack of powerful bursts and a small
number of seismic events on the Moon. Equally
significant correlation coefficients before and after the
burst of outbursts (Table 2) have a fairly simple physical
explanation. In our opinion, the solar bursts with high
energy stimulates an increase in seismic events on the
moon through the mechanisms of action to the surface of
the Moon: photo acoustic (gamma- and X-ray emission),
the variable solar wind dynamic pressure. Thus, the
number of seismic events on the moon rose from 41 to
134 before the outburst after outburst, and this at a time
when the principal amount of seismic events on the
Moon due to the solar-terrestrial tides.
Conclusion
• In addition, the fact that the similarity test of
synthetic solar histogram based on their own
periods of oscillations of the Sun with histograms
of durations of seismic events on the Moon can
be explained by modulation of the solar wind
and the natural oscillations of the Sun from table
2, these variations are beginning to affect the
solar wind long before the bursts . Thus,
monitoring of the lunar seismic fields (the Moon
as a detector) provides information on solar
activity, that is forecast powerful solar bursts.
Reference
• 1. Khavroshkin O.B., Tsyplakov V.V. Meteoroid stream
impacts on the Moon: information of duration of
seismograms // Proc. Conf. Meteoroids 2001 (ESA SP495). Noordwijk, The Netherlands: ESA Publ. Division.,
2001, p.p.13-21.
• 2. Khavroshkin O.B., Tsyplakov V.V. Temporal structure
of meteoroid stream and lunar seismicity according to
Nakamura’s catalogue // Proc. Conf. Meteoroids 2001
(ESA SP-495). Noordwijk, The Netherlands: ESA Publ.
Division., 2001, p.p. 95-105.
• 3. Хаврошкин О.Б., Цыплаков В.В., Собко А. А.
Солнечная активность и сейсмичность Луны.
Инженерная физика.-2011,№3.-С.40-45.
• 4. Christensen-Dalsgaard, J., Dirty Solar Models
Astron. Astrophys. 73 p.p. 121-128 (1979)